Detroit — Understand that manager AJ Hinch and pitching coach Chris Fetter are charting the first rough maps of a previously unexplored territory.
There’s no real science here. There’s no tested formula. Nobody has had to figure out how to navigate a group of young pitchers through their first full season in the big leagues coming off a pandemic-shortened season where workloads were drastically reduced.
But the reality is, there is real value in allowing rookies Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal to continue to make starts through the end of September. They have to experience it and learn how to adjust to rigors of it. Because, as Hinch has said, the goal ultimately is to be able to pitch through October and into early November if the playoff run demands it.
The tricky part is keeping them healthy, short-term and long-term.
“It’s hard to ask guys to go wire to wire when it’s the first time they’re going to pitch at this fatigue level and this late in the season,” Hinch said. “But the training wheels are off. These guys can handle it. They’re preparing like they are pitching a whole season.”
Mize pitched 28 innings and faced 133 hitters in 2020. Skubal threw 32 innings and faced 134 hitters. Both likely have seven starts left in 2021 and have already quadrupled their workload. Mize has thrown 120 innings and faced 489 hitters; Skubal 116 inning, 497 hitters.
“The whole plan all year has been for us to make it to the finish line,” Mize said. “Everybody has done a real good job of executing a plan. Yeah, we had to maneuver a little bit with the injuries (Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Jose Urena, Julio Teheran), but we managed and we stuck to the plan and made the most of it.”
The thing is, there is no definitive science on the correlation between increased workloads and arm injuries. There’s no study that proves injuries are more or less likely to occur with x-percentage of innings or pitches.
Many teams use a 30-percent maximum increase from the previous year, but that’s not based on hard data.
Hinch and Fetter have taken more of a macro, season-long approach to managing workloads.
Skubal got off to a rough start and had a stint in the bullpen. That effectively limited his load for the first couple of months. Mize was limited to one time through the opponent’s batting order for a three-start stretch between July 2 and July 19. He pitched 11 innings over three weeks, but still stayed on his normal routine.
Initially, Hinch planned on giving Skubal a string of limited-innings starts, as well, but he’s run out of season.
“We did it early enough with Casey that we had time to ramp him back up,” Hinch said. “With Tarik, it’s so late in the season, by the time we do it now we wouldn’t have time to ramp him back up.”
The injuries to the veteran starts made it impossible to limit Mize and Skubal at the same time.
Instead, Hinch is building extra days of rest between starts for the entire rotation from now to the end of the season. Mize’s next start, for example, is Tuesday instead of Sunday. Skubal will likely pitch Wednesday against the Angels, seven days of rest.
Essentially, it’s a modified six-man rotation with the sixth spot either being a bullpen day or spot starter called up from Triple-A. Veteran Drew Hutchison was pulled early from his last start and was under discussion to pitch Sunday.
Boyd and Urena are expected to be back by September, too, which could further elongate the rotation.
“We’re still going to be careful with them,” Hinch said. “We’re going to see what they look like, what the pitch metrics are, where their fatigue level is and how they are bouncing back after starts and then determine how long they’re going to go making full starts. We’ll see if it lasts through August and into September, or if we have to scale it back sooner.
“Still, we think it’s best to pitch them as long as we can and pitch them into that fatigue level that young pitchers can show in August and September and maybe limit their workload along the way.”
Rookie Matt Manning is on a different track. He didn’t pitch at all last season, battling through a forearm injury and COVID-19, so he was slow-played through spring training and into the first month at Triple-A Toledo.
He’s made 10 starts and pitched 48 innings.
“I’d like them to make every start if they can,” Hinch said. “If we pull the plug at some point in September, then so be it. But that’s the mapped-out plan.”
28 or 29 starts in a rookie season following a shortened 2020 season would be remarkable, especially if both stay as effective as they’ve been.
“I feel really good,” Mize said. “If getting an extra day or two between starts is going to help us get through the full season, I am on board with that, just as I was on board with the shorter starts.”
Both Skubal and Manning are coming off impressive outings, both with their fastballs ticking up significantly in terms of velocity and movement through the zone. There was no sign of fatigue.
“I just want to continue to pitch and pitch well and continue to develop at this level,” Skubal said. “That’s what this year has been about for me, just get better each and every day.”
In a lull
Eric Haase, now the Tigers’ primary catcher as well as part-time left fielder, started and played in his 21st straight game Friday night. And for the first time all year, he’s begun to show some wear and tear.
Entering Friday, he was in a 6-for-37 lull with 15 strikeouts and just two RBI.
“I’ll probably give him Sunday off, so he will get two days off with the off-day Monday,” Hinch said. “Physically he’s fine. It’s just the mental grind of missing some pitches and overswinging a little bit. He got anxious and swing at a 3-0 pitch (Thursday in Baltimore), trying to ambush his way out of this bout of bad timing he’s in.”
Haase has not let it leak into his catching. He threw out both Austin Hays and speedy Jorge Mateo in Baltimore Tuesday and Wednesday.
“He’ll be all right,” Hinch said. “He’s one swing away from impacting the game and putting himself right back on track.”
Around the horn
The news was positive on utility man Niko Goodrum, who went on the injured list with a left groin strain on Thursday. Tests revealed a Grade 1 strain, which is the mildest strain. Hinch said it’s not likely to be a season-ending injury. The hope is that he can begin his rehab in a week when the Tigers embark on a two-city trip to Toronto and St. Louis.
… Akil Baddoo (concussion) was on the field stretching and playing catch with his teammates Friday. He’s responded well to the physical assertion and increased heart rate tests. The earliest he could be cleared of the concussion protocol would be next Wednesday.
… Boyd’s first rehab assignment with Toledo was rained out Thursday. He was scheduled to start Friday night in Columbus.
Twitter: @cmccosky
Indians at Tigers
► First pitch: 6:10 p.m. Saturday, Comerica Park, Detroit
► TV/Radio: BSD/97.1
SCOUTING REPORT
► TBA, Indians
► RHP Wily Peralta (3-2, 3.48), Tigers: The Indians used six right-handed hitters against Peralta in Cleveland last Sunday and they may do it again. Peralta’s splitter-slider mix has been more effective against lefties than righties – righties have a 120 OPS-plus against him, lefties 79.