Detroit Tigers Newsletter: Welcome to the 500 club, Miguel Cabrera. So who’s next?

We knew it was coming — literally, we knew here in the Newsletter-Cave before we saw it, thanks to a quick-messaging Detroit Tigers beat writer whose in-person view was 30 seconds or so ahead of the Bally Sports Detroit feed — and yet, still, it was a surprise.

After eight homer-free games from Miguel Cabrera, while standing on the precipice of 500 home runs, there it was.

The sixth inning. One out. A 1-1 pitch. To right-center, 400 feet (or 121.92 meters, since it was in Canada, after all).

No. 500.

And of course, it brought out a host of reactions. Tigers announcers both TV and radio tested out how many “N’s” can fit in “500!” (Our ruling: 16.) Justin Verlander asked for … underwear? (That dude needs to get back to the ballpark soon.) Cabrera himself offered a paean to the Almighty afterward. (Though not to the Al Mighty; that’s someone else.)

And here in the Newsletter-Cave, once we’d plowed through the stories and the tweets and the numbers, we had one final thought: Who’s next?

Hello, and welcome to the Welcome to the Club Newsletter.

VENEZUELAN ROOTS: Scouts couldn’t believe what they saw when they met Miggy at 15

Now that might seem a bit of a speedy turn — and when’s the last time the phrases “speedy turn” and “Miguel Cabrera” appeared within 200 words of each other? — but here we are: After spending the past month studying the 500-homer club, we’re already wondering which active major leaguer will be the 29th member of the 500-homer club. (Hey, it beats spending this week studying the 3,000-hit club.)

Here’s a quick look at some potential candidates for admission to one of baseball’s most exclusive clubs (along with their current homer total):

Nelson Cruz: 443 — Sure, he turned 41 on July 1 (and went on the COVID-19 protocol list this weekend), but do you want to bet against “Boomstick” — on pace for 30-plus homers in 2021 for the seventh time in eight years — smashing 57 homers over the next two seasons? (Especially if the Tiger Killer™ lands in the offseason on a new team that faces the Tigers often?)

Giancarlo Stanton: 332 — It shouldn’t be that tough for the 31-year-old to get the 168 he needs, but guys with injury histories like his don’t suddenly start playing 150-game seasons in their mid-30s. Then again, the $179 million he’s owed over the next six seasons should provide some motivation for the milestone.

Mike Trout: 310 — He turned 30 this month and only needs 190 homers. Like Stanton, he has had injury issues the past few seasons — with this season’s 90-some missed games the most severe — but even those previous limited seasons have delivered 33, 39 and 45 homers. Can he do that six more times? (He has nine more seasons under contract with the Halos, so probably.)

Nolan Arenado: 260 — He’s only 120 days younger than Trout, but debuted nearly two years later. That could make the difference, along with this year’s trade from Colorado to St. Louis. He’s locked in for six more seasons under the Gateway Arch, but even 30 homers per would leave him about 60 short of the mark.

Bryce Harper: 255 — Can he hit 245 homers over the next 10 seasons he’s under contract in Philly? Clown question, bro, even if he’s closer to a 30-homer pace every year, rather than a 40-homer one.

Manny Machado: 245 — Same potential as Harper, but just seven seasons left under contract and it’s San Diego, so chillax, brah?

Joey Gallo/Francisco Lindor: 149 — They both turn 28 in November and could spend a lot of time in New York over the next decade. But 350 homers’ worth? Lindor has the long-term deal, but his power may not last; Gallo’s lefty swing will play well in Yankee Stadium if he signs an extension before the end of next season.

Cody Bellinger: 132 — Even after missing most of April and May with a hairline fracture in his left leg, and a 10-game home run drought this month <been there, done that, eh, Miggy?>, Bellinger is still one of 47 players in MLB history with at least 130 dingers by the end of their age-25 season. Only 14 of the 44 reached 500, but that’s still half the 500-homer club, if we’re trying to project someone who could hit another 370 homers.

Ronald Acuna: 105; Juan Soto: 89; Fernando Tatis Jr.: 73 — While we’re on the subject of wild projections, this trio is in a group of 25 players with at least 70 homers by the end of their age-22 season (with Acuna adding 24 in half a season this year at age 23 before a July ACL tear). Again, if you’re projecting for the future, it’s a good group; 10 of the 25 are in the 500-homer club.

So there’s you have it: At least a dozen players with a shot to join the club over the next decade. (And if Carlos Correa signs with the Tigers in November, you can bet we’ll be revising this to squeeze in the by-then-27-year-old shortstop with 126 homers…)

The road to 500 homers

Of course, just as it’s tough to project Acuna, Soto or Tatis for 500 homers now, it was hard for the Marlins scouts (including now-Tigers employees Al Avila and Miguel Garcia) who first saw Cabrera play in Venezuela to predict stardom for him. Then again, it wasn’t that hard; scouting him was easy, signing him was the hard part, as Our Man Petzold lays out here.

Another step toward baseball immortality

But before we get too far ahead of ourselves — hey, we didn’t include Riley Greene on the list of future 500-homer hitters, and he’s not even 21 until next month — let’s remember how truly momentous Cabrera’s achievement is. The Freep’s Jeff Seidel put it all in perspective; click here to find out how Cabrera did something Al Kaline, Lou Gehrig and Stan Musial didn’t.

Remember the homers?

Because seriously, 500 home runs is a LOT of homers. (For comparison, the rest of the Tigers’ 40-man roster only has 416 combined.) Which means there’s a lot of ways to look at those homers, and the career they’ve created. Like, say, by inning — No. 500 was Cabrera’s 69th (nice) career homer in the sixth. We took a look at nearly every split possible among Cabrera’s homers here.

Or, say, how Cabrera stacks up against the 27 other members of the 500-homer club, such as Ernie Banks and Eddie Mathews; we did that here. (Hint: Great in doubles, less so in strikeouts,)

Or, say, just by remembering some of our favorite non-milestone homers —the most improbable ones that made us stand up and cheer on our nights off, with a cool beverage in the Comerica Park seats (or a local watering hole). We’ve got those here.

Peer pleasure

But don’t take our word for it; this month brought out plenty of tributes from Cabrera’s former teammates and current competitors. Former teammate Prince Fielder remembered Cabrera’s hard work at third base with Our Man Petzold here. Another former teammate, Jose Iglesias, recalled Cabrera’s willingness to play through pain here (to Our Man Petzold, naturally). And Iglesias’ teammate Shohei Ohtani — the current “Baddest Bat on Earth” — paid tribute as well (after he went unscathed Wednesday), saying, “He’s so respected in the baseball world that it would’ve been OK if I was the one that gave up his 500th homer.” Read more about Ohtani’s relationship with Cabrera here.

Muted mic

One voice we didn’t hear from during the Cabrera celebration Sunday? Bally Sports Detroit analyst Jack Morris, who was suspended after using an offensive accent when discussing Ohtani on Wednesday. Click here for the Tigers’ and Bally Sports’ statements on Morris.

3 to watch

Now that Miggy500 Watch is over, here are three other Tigers to keep an eye on this week:

AKIL BADDOO: The 23-year-old phenom is set to rejoin the Tigers on Tuesday in St. Louis.

DAZ CAMERON: Back from a toe injury, the 24-year-old is already looking to next spring.

ZACK SHORT: Is it easy to change your swing at the big-league level? “It’s (expletive) hard,” the shortstop said.

Ful house

Among Tigers on the 40-man roster and IL, only Matthew Boyd has been Cabrera’s teammate longer than Michael Fulmer, whose career has overlapped with Miggy for 92 homers (give or take a major surgery or two). And while this season has brought a renaissance for Cabrera’s home-run swing, it has also rejuvenated Fulmer’s career. The 28-year-old righty talked with Our Man Petzold here about his biggest lessons while learning to love the bullpen.

Mark your calendar, Part I

Meanwhile — and, yes, we know, there are still six more weeks left this season —Thursday marks six months until the start of spring training 2022 (aka TorkelGreene Watch 2022, according to Our Man Seidel) and Our Man Petzold has a look at the schedule which was released this week. Click here to find out how many times the Tigers and Blue Jays meet again in Florida.

Happy birthday, J-Up!

One member of the top six active home run hitters we didn’t mention at the beginning? Former Tiger Justin Upton, who turns 34 on Wednesday. Not so long ago, Upton was a dark horse candidate for the 500-homer club, with 256 homers at the end of 2017, his age 29 season (during which he was dealt from the Tigers to the Angels). But short seasons — both injury-caused and pandemic-caused — have slashed his productivity and held him to 75 homers in 363 games in Anaheim over parts of five years.

Other Tigers birthdays this week: George Kell (would have been 99 on Monday; died in 2009), David Price (36 on Thursday), Jordy Mercer (35 on Friday).

Mark your calendar, Part II

Just five games for the Tigers this week, thanks to off days on either side of their two-game series in St. Louis on Tuesday and Wednesday. Make the most of those off days, too; when the Tigers return home for a three-game set against the Blue Jays on Friday-Sunday, it’ll start a 13-game stretch with no days off.

It’s good, then, that Matthew Boyd appears nearly ready to return to the Tigers’ rotation. As Our Man Petzold reports, his rehab stint is close to ending. Click here to find out when his final rehab start is and what that means for his return. (Also, Eric Haase and Jose Urena are coming back soon, too.)