The Detroit Tigers have seven games remaining this season.
The goal is to win games, but it’s hard not to already move on to next year. The Tigers hope to be in contention for the 2022 playoffs. Whether right-handed reliever Joe Jimenez is along for the ride remains to be seen.
At first glance, keeping Jimenez seems unlikely. But a deeper dig into the numbers presents a potentially different reality, one where the 6-foot-3 right-hander should get another opportunity to become a back-end arm under the tutelage of pitching coach Chris Fetter and assistant pitching coach Juan Nieves.
Of course, Jimenez wants to return.
“I want to be part of the winning team that is coming in the next few years,” Jimenez said Saturday. “It’s not up to me. I can’t do anything else. What I did on the mound, I already did it. Coming into the offseason, I just want to work on things and try to be more competitive and consistent.”
TIME TO WIN: Leaders reveal Tigers’ offseason plan to ‘make big push’ for 2022 playoffs
COMING IN 2022: Beating playoff teams is nice, but Tigers send statement: ‘We haven’t arrived yet’
Jimenez has a 5.82 ERA, 32 walks and 54 strikeouts in 43⅓ innings over 50 relief appearances in his fifth MLB season. Still, those numbers from the back of his baseball card don’t reveal his true potential.
His three pitches have been effective, when viewed by themselves: Batters hit .203 vs. his fastball, .232 vs. his slider and .200 vs. his changeup in 2021. It gets better when looking at expected batting averages — a stat which ignores defense and focuses solely on exit velocity, launch angle and distance traveled for balls hit — against his three pitches: .176 vs. his four-seam fastball, .159 vs. his slider and .180 vs. his changeup.
“At one point in this season, I felt like it was my best year ever,” Jimenez said. “I was doing so good for a couple months that I even said, ‘Hey, I have never done this.’ Like, not even in the year I went to the (2018) All-Star Game. I was doing pretty good. My slider was a lot better than a couple years ago. I was throwing more changeups. My fastball had life, throwing 96-97 (mph). It’s tough how the season started.”
Of Tigers pitchers with at least 100 balls in play, Jimenez’s .167 expected batting average against is the best on the team — ahead of high-leverage relievers Gregory Soto (.196), Jose Cisnero (.225), Kyle Funkhouser (.234) and Michael Fulmer (.240). His actual .208 batting average against ranks third, behind Soto (.198) and Spencer Turnbull (.203).
In his first three outings, Jimenez conceded eight runs on two hits and nine walks to the Oakland Athletics (April 15, 17) and Kansas City Royals (May 11). He began his year with a 43.20 ERA. Removing those appearances from his resume would drop his season-long ERA from 5.82 to 4.32, not nearly as much of an eyesore.
“I didn’t think I was going to get sent down (to Triple-A Toledo) out of spring training,” Jimenez said. “It was my first year in arbitration, and it didn’t cross my mind that I could be that guy. When I got called up my first time, it was more mental than anything else. I wanted to impress them and show them I could pitch in the big leagues. That got me a little bit.”
MIGGY DAY: Why Friday night was the best gift of all from the Tigers to Miguel Cabrera
LOOKING AHEAD: Tigers ready to ‘count on’ Jeimer Candelario into future. What about Wily Peralta?
Another metric to keep in mind: Jimenez’s expected ERA — which is computed off his walks and strikeouts as well as the exit velocity, launch angle and distance of balls in play — is 3.92. Of Tigers pitchers with at least 100 balls in play, that expected ERA ranks fourth, trailing Turnbull, Soto and Fulmer.
How Jimenez falters
Jimenez rattled off his best stretch from May 16 through July 4, posting a 2.60 ERA, nine walks and 21 strikeouts over 17⅓ innings in 20 games. His improvements earned him a high-leverage role, somewhat similar to his job as the closer in 2019 and early 2020.
“I’m throwing a new slider, and I think it’s a lot better than the one I had before,” Jimenez said. “(The old slider) was more like a curveball.”
Since then, however, Jimenez has a 5.55 ERA, 14 walks and 29 strikeouts in 24⅓ innings over 27 appearances. He also landed on the injured list with COVID-19, testing positive Sept. 6 and sitting out until Sept. 24.
“I didn’t feel bad that I had COVID,” Jimenez said. “It was bad that it happened at this time. I wanted to finish the season pretty good and make my numbers better. You can’t control that. To be honest, I didn’t think I was going to get COVID at all because I’ve been safe (and vaccinated). It sucks that it happened at this time, but I got a week to finish good.”
OUTFIELDER REFLECTS: Victor Reyes out for season with injury but ‘capped a nice comeback’
NOTES: Tigers reliever Jose Cisnero unlikely to return this season due to injury
To end on a dominant note, Jimenez needs to throw strikes. His command is his weakness. Even the underlying numbers can’t save him from that fact.
This season, he threw first-pitch strikes at a 57.9% rate, far off his 66.9% in 2019 and 62.4% in 2020. He puts his pitches in the strike zone 49.1% of the time, again well worse than his 52.9% in 2019 and 51.9% in 2020.
Those numbers led to a 16.4% walk rate.
“When he’s in the strike zone, he’s really tough to hit,” Hinch said. “The numbers will show that out. When he gets into leverage counts, he’s pretty good. That’s not uncommon, but it’s certainly imperative for him to throw strikes.
“Consistency has been an issue for Joe this season. When he’s been locked in the strike zone, he’s been pretty good. If he can be in the strike zone, that’ll leave a favorable impression for him toward the end of the year.”
Back to the future
For the second time in his career, Jimenez will be eligible for salary arbitration in the offseason.
Players with at least three years, but less than six, of MLB service time are eligible for salary arbitration if they don’t have a contract for the upcoming season. After six years of service time, the player reaches free agency.
Last winter, the Tigers tendered Jimenez a contract and avoided an arbitration hearing by agreeing to a $1.5 million deal for 2021. If a team chooses not to offer a contract — known as “non-tendering” — the player becomes a free agent.
“Overall, I think this year was pretty big for my career,” Jimenez said. “I wanted to impress myself and show them I can be here and am a big-league pitcher. That was always my mentality. I wanted to help the team because I know we are just one step away from being an elite team. I want to be part of that. I wanted to do good this year because I wanted to be part of the process. But whatever happens, it’s up to them. I’m going to work in the offseason and be ready for spring training, wherever I’m at.”
So, what do the Tigers think about Jimenez for the 2022 season?
Hinch didn’t give too much away.
“We’re going to meet in October and have hours to talk about what the plans are,” Hinch said. “Guys are trying to leave lasting impressions. It’s not just about the last couple of weeks. It’ll be the last few years for Joe, as an example. We’ll determine where guys fit as we get closer to understanding what the team looks like moving forward.
“The better you do, the better impression you can make. But we’re not just going to look at the last 10 days and make a determination based on that.”
Evan Petzold is a sports reporter at the Detroit Free Press. Contact him at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.