The 2021 World Series is underway, which doesn’t mean much for the Detroit Tigers.
The Tigers finished 77-85 for third place in the American League Central, missing the postseason for the seventh year in a row. But the rebuild seems close to finished, as general manager Al Avila and manager AJ Hinch focus on building a playoff-contending team. To take the next step, the Tigers — in a perfect world — would like to acquire a pair of starting pitchers, a shortstop and a veteran catcher this winter.
The day after the World Series ends — possibly as early as Sunday, but no later than Nov. 4 — former Tigers pitcher Justin Verlander becomes a free agent. (Though players can’t sign new deals until five days after the end of the Fall Classic.) The 2011 AL MVP and two-time AL Cy Young winner told the Free Press earlier this year that he has thought about returning to Detroit, as long as a reunion with the Tigers is best for his career.
VERLANDER TALKS: Inside Justin Verlander’s MVP season & his thoughts on a reunion with Tigers
THINKING IN 2022: Will Justin Verlander return to the Tigers? Pudge Rodriguez weighs in
The Houston Astros, though, have other ideas.
“He’s been working out,” Astros owner Jim Crane told reporters in Houston on Oct. 7, before Game 1 of the Astros’ AL Division Series. “I know he’s in shape because I’ve seen him once a couple months ago, working out five, six days a week. With his background and his drive, I don’t see any reason why he wouldn’t pitch.”
Verlander, 38, has pitched for the Astros since the Tigers dealt him to Houston in August 2017. He signed a two-year, $66 million contract extension in 2019.
He is nearing full health in his recovery from Tommy John surgery, which he underwent in October 2020 to repair the torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. The right-hander hasn’t pitched since July 2020 and won’t return to the mound until the beginning of the 2022 season.
“I need to get my elbow healthy first,” Verlander told the Free Press earlier this year, after breaking down his 2011 MVP season, “and then I don’t even know what the next steps are. I’m a free agent, and I have no plan. For the first time, I’m entering free agency. We’ll just see what happens.”
2022 ROSTER PREDICTION 1.0: Big name could fill shortstop void, but what about starting pitching?
PLAYER GRADES: Evaluating each Tiger as team aims for winning record, playoffs in 2022
Verlander left the Tigers on Aug. 31, 2017, when Avila traded the franchise pitcher to the Astros for three prospects: right-hander Franklin Perez, catcher Jake Rogers and outfielder Daz Cameron. The Tigers selected Verlander with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2004 draft. He then made his MLB debut in 2005 and spent his first 13 MLB seasons in Detroit.
“I’d be lying if I said I didn’t think about it,” Verlander said. “Yeah, of course. I loved playing there. I love the city. I love the fans. Yes, I do think about it. Ultimately, the decision comes down to what’s best for my career. If that aligns with that possibility, then maybe it does.”
What happens next?
When Verlander takes the mound again, he probably won’t be wearing the Old English “D.”
The Tigers have already accepted the fact that there’s virtually no chance Verlander joins them in 2022. Although Verlander would surely boost a starting rotation that features young arms Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning, he isn’t going to be a cheap addition.
Verlander is seeking a multi-year deal, and likely more money than the Tigers are willing to offer, especially when they take his age and health into consideration. Frankly, the Tigers have a greater interest in building a winning team, as opposed to sacrificing substantial payroll room to give their future Hall of Famer a comeback tour.
“He’ll be looking for a contract of some length,” Crane continued before Game 1 of the ALDS. “We’ll certainly have the option to give him the qualifying offer, which we’ll probably do. We’ll do that after the season and then see where it goes.”
TWO COOL: How Justin Verlander’s 2nd no-hitter ‘made people sit up in the buggy’ 10 years ago
NO. 500: How Miguel Cabrera’s epic 500-homer journey to history began in Venezuela
The qualifying offer for free agents this winter is set at $18.4 million. A player extended a qualifying offer has 10 days to accept or decline.
If Verlander receives the offer and accepts, he will return to the Astros and become a free agent after the 2022 season. If he declines, he will do so under the assumption that he can make more than $18.4 million, or land a lucrative multi-year contract, from a different team as a free agent. Unless Verlander declines the qualifying offer and shockingly agrees to a significant discount, the Tigers won’t be in the mix.
Six players earned a $18.9 million qualifying offer last winter: Trevor Bauer, Kevin Gausman, DJ LeMahieu, J.T. Realmuto, George Springer and Marcus Stroman. Only Gausman and Stroman accepted; the other four became free agents.
Since the qualifying offer began in 2012, only 10 of 96 players have agreed to the offer. Any team that signs a player who has rejected a qualifying offer loses a draft pick, with the team losing the player gaining a pick early in the draft.
Beyond ’22
All things considered, it’s unlikely Verlander returns to the Tigers in 2022. But if the 6-foot-5 righty proves he is healthy and durable, a homecoming down the road still makes a lot of sense.
Verlander pitched 2,511 innings over 380 starts with the Tigers, logging a 183-114 record, 3.49 ERA and 2,373 strikeouts. He won the AL Rookie of the Year (2006), Cy Young (2011) and MVP (2011) awards, along with making World Series appearances in 2006 and 2012.
In Houston, Verlander won his first World Series in 2017 and second Cy Young Award in 2019 with Hinch — now the Tigers’ manager — at the helm. He has a 43-15 record with a 2.45 ERA in 477 innings across 74 starts in his career with the Astros.
YEAR 1: AJ Hinch didn’t know if he’d get another chance. Tigers sure glad he’s theirs
MESSAGE SENT: Justin Verlander to AJ Hinch: No place like Detroit when Tigers are winning
The relationship between Verlander and Hinch could help negotiations if the Tigers pursue the veteran starter in the coming years.
Keep in mind, Verlander plans to pitch until he is at least 45 years old and wants to continue his career for as long as possible. Since Verlander thinks he has roughly half a dozen seasons left in the tank — a seemingly impossible goal for just about anyone but Verlander — coming back to the Tigers won’t happen until a later point in time, maybe not until the final years of his career.
While there is general interest from both sides, Tigers fans need to wait a bit longer for serious rumblings.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.