The annual Baseball Hall of Fame induction announcement arrived Tuesday, with only David Ortiz earning the necessary 75% of the vote from the Baseball Writers Association of America this year.
That means Detroit Tigers fans should expect to see the clip of Ortiz’s dramatic game-tying eighth-inning grand slam for the Boston Red Sox in Game 2 of the 2013 ALCS — or, more likely, the Tigers’ Torii Hunter flipping over the bullpen wall in right field trying to catch it — ohhhh, about 5 million times between whenever they’re reading this and the induction ceremony in July. That was one of only two hits for Ortiz over 22 at-bats in the series — a .091 batting average — but it’s a tough image to forget for Tigers fans.
And so we’re going to fast-forward a bit, speeding toward next January’s announcement of the Hall’s Class of 2023. (No, Lou Whitaker won’t be in that class either; his “Modern Baseball”-era veterans committee doesn’t meet until December 2023, for the Class of 2024.) The ballot is far from being set — the basic requirements are 10 years of service time and five years of retirement — but it appears there’ll be seven former Tigers players up for selection, including five first-timers.
[ Ex-Tigers manager Jim Leyland: Barry Bonds ‘belongs in Cooperstown’ ]
Let’s take a quick look at those Tigers, ranked by their chances of making the Hall in 2023.
Another year?
These two have stayed on the ballot for multiple seasons, though, should they make the Hall, they’re unlikely to sport an Old English D on their plaques:
Torii Hunter
The outfielder spent two seasons (2013-14) in his late 30s in Detroit with a slash line of .295/.327/.456 to go with All-Star and Silver Slugger nods in 2013. Add in four other All-Star berths during stints with the Minnesota Twins and Los Angeles Angels, nine Gold Gloves and another Silver Slugger in 2009, and Hunter was arguably one of the top center fielders of his generation. But that may not be enough, as he got just 9.5% of the vote in 2021, his first year on the ballot, and dropped to 5.3% this year. (The line to stay on the ballot is 5%, leaving Hunter nearly as out of room for error as he was in Boston in October 2013.)
CARLOS MONARREZ: Why I disagree with Jim Leyland about Barry Bonds and the Baseball Hall of Fame
Gary Sheffield
A Tiger for two seasons (2007-08) before the franchise released him in March 2009 — one homer shy of 500 for his career — Sheffield’s HOF path looked buried like Comerica Park under a February snowfall. He failed to crack 14% in his first five seasons on the BBWAA ballot; was it the frequent team changes? The less-than-friendly relationship with the media? The 2004 admission that he unknowingly took PEDs under the advice of Barry Bonds? Finally, in 2020, voters began to remember the good parts of his career: A .292/.393/.514 slash line, nine All-Star nods, five Silver Sluggers — even a 25-homer, 22-steal season at age 38 in 2007. That year, his vote count jumped to 30.5%, and he has been at 40.6% in the past two, with only 2023 and 2024 remaining.
The rookies
We’ll break down their arguments in order of least- to most-likely chances of staying on the Hall ballot:
Jason Grilli
The case for: The No. 4 overall pick in 1997 didn’t crack the majors full-time until 2005 — at age 27 — with the Tigers (with whom his dad pitched from 1975-77). Traded out of Detroit in 2008, the righty struggled until landing in Pittsburgh at age 34, where he had one great season (2012 — 90 strikeouts in 58⅔ innings), two good ones (2011, 2013 — which featured his lone All-Star berth) and an OK half (2014 — after he was dealt to the Angels). He pitched until he was 40.
The case against: Basically all of his seasons away from the Pirates: He had a 3.01 career ERA in black and yellow and a 4.70 ERA in every other color.
Likely 2023 ballot count: 0%.
JUST STARTING OUT: Jackson Jobe ‘counting down the days’ until mini-camp in Lakeland
EYES ON MIZE: Casey Mize sets bar for Tigers: ‘We should be aiming to win World Series’
Erick Aybar
The case for: A Gold Glove with the Angels in 2011 and an All-Star in 2014, when he had 22 doubles, six homers, 11 steals and 50 RBIs over 92 games in the first half. Traded from Atlanta to Detroit in August 2016, he had a .691 OPS in 91 plate appearances during the Tigers’ most recent winning season.
The case against: In the second half of 2014, he had eight doubles and one homer over 64 games, for a slugging percentage of .328, well below his career mark of … uh, .372. Be honest — you forgot he was ever a Tiger, didn’t you?
Likely 2023 ballot count: 0%.
Joaquin Benoit
The case for: His career peaked during his stint with the Tigers from 2011-13, with a 2.89 ERA, 220 strikeouts and just 61 walks in 199 innings. He was so dominant at the end of 2013 that Tigers manager Jim Leyland called the right-hander in to face Ortiz, a lefty, in the eighth inning of Game 2 of the ALCS in Boston.
The case against: He threw one pitch to Ortiz and … well, you know what happened. (In all seriousness, though, Benoit went on to post solid seasons with the San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays before losing it suddenly at age 39, in a season split between the Pirates and the Philadelphia Phillies.)
Likely 2023 ballot count: 1%.
Jhonny Peralta
The case for: He wasn’t even on the field for Ortiz’s Game 2 homer. (Jose Iglesias subbed in for him to open the eighth inning.) After joining the Tigers via trade in July 2010, he made two All-Star teams and posted a .764 OPS over 3½ seasons, a mark slightly better than his career OPS of .752 (while appearing at shortstop in 82.9% of his games). That’s a better career OPS than nine Hall of Fame shortstops (with 80% of their appearances at the position), including Pee Wee Reese and Ozzie Smith. (Eight have a higher career OPS: Willy Wells, Arky Vaughan, Joe Cronin, Derek Jeter, Barry Larkin, Luke Appling, Lou Boudreau and Alan Trammell.)
The case against: Peralta was suspended for 50 games in 2013 for PED violations as part of MLB’s crackdown on those linked to the Biogenesis clinic in Miami, along with 11 other players.
Likely 2023 ballot count: 1%.
Francisco Rodriguez
The case for: A fireballing phenom as a youngster, “K-Rod” set MLB’s single-season saves record (62) in 2008 with the Angels and made four All-Star squads in his first seven seasons (2003-09). By the time he landed in Detroit in 2016 (via an offseason trade with the Milwaukee Brewers), he was relying more on craftiness. It worked well that season, as he picked up 44 saves in 49 chances while striking out 52 over 58⅓ innings. Rodriguez’s career saves (437), WAR (24.1), strikeouts (1,142) and ERA (2.86) stack up reasonably well against five of the seven modern closers — Lee Smith, Rollie Fingers, Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley and Bruce Sutter — already enshrined in the Hall.
The case against: Despite spending more than two-thirds of his career as a closer, his save total is far behind the two undisputed greats in the role: Mariano Rivera (652), Trevor Hoffman (601). And then there was the way he finished his career, with an implosion in Detroit: Rodriguez was released by the Tigers in late June 2017 after posting a 7.82 ERA with six blown saves and at least one run allowed in 13 of his 28 appearances.
Likely 2023 ballot count: 15%.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.