Al Avila’s first draft pick as Detroit Tigers general manager came on June 9, 2016, as the franchise took California right-hander Matt Manning at No. 9 overall.
A little more than six years — and hundreds of losses — later, Avila will be at the helm for the Tigers for the seventh time as the 2022 MLB draft begins Sunday night and rolls through Tuesday.
The Tigers and Avila have made 185 picks, with 18 eventually making it to the majors (though not all with the Tigers). That 9.7% hit rate actually exceeds that of all franchises (7.8%) over that span. Only five franchises — the Minnesota Twins (19), Chicago White Sox (20), Kansas City Royals (20), Houston Astros (21) and Los Angeles Dodgers (23) — have had more picks reach the bigs since Avila’s first pick.
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Of course, it’s not just enough for draft picks to make the majors; the Tigers, seemingly in a rebuild since the August 2015 day Avila replaced Dave Dombrowski (or at least since July 2015, when Tigers dealt away David Price and Yoenis Cespedes for pitching prospects), have committed to finding production though the draft — “sustainable” winning, the franchise calls it — rather than dishing out mega-contracts again.
At that, Avila has been less successful, though not without his finds; Tigers draft picks (signed and unsigned) have produced nine Wins Above Replacement (WAR, according to Baseball Reference). It’s a far cry from the St. Louis Cardinals’ 34.7 WAR, or the Cleveland Guardians’ 28.8, but good for 11th out of 30 teams. (Bringing up the rear: The Pittsburgh Pirates, with -4 WAR and the Nationals at -1.5 WAR. So it could always be worse.)
So how did Avila get from Manning to whomever the Tigers will select at No. 12 overall on Sunday night in Los Angeles? Here’s how the individual drafts break down:
(All stats courtesy of baseball-reference.com and updated through July 13. We’re crediting all teams with WAR from the players drafted regardless of whether they signed with the franchise or whether they were traded or released later. After all, the use of a draft pick on a future MLBer suggests solid scouting, even if things go south later on.)
2016
A whopping 191 of the 1,216 players — 15.7% — selected in Avila’s first draft as GM have made the majors (including 29 of 39 first-rounders) and produced 189.2 WAR. (That also includes one 40th-rounder: catcher Adley Rutschman, who was selected at No. 1,197 overall by the Seattle Mariners, but opted to go to Oregon State. He was the No. 1 overall pick in 2019, so … good call.)
The winners: Quantity or quality? If it’s the former, the Los Angeles Dodgers have had 15 picks from this draft reach the majors for the production of 27.7 WAR, led by catcher Will Smith at 9.1 WAR. That haul includes 10 of their first 11 picks, one more than the next best team (the Twins, with nine) had in 40 rounds. But if you’re about the quality, then it’s the Cardinals, who have had seven picks reach the bigs for a total of 30.4 WAR. That’s led by their sixth-round pick, outfielder Tommy Edman (13.1 WAR), but also includes outfielder Dylan Carlson (4.3 WAR), right-hander Dakota Hudson (4.1 WAR) and right-hander Zac Gallen (8.8 WAR), who was shipped to Miami for Marcell Ozuna. And then there are the teams who found gems in the later rounds; the Guardians nabbed a future American League Cy Young winner in Shane Bieber in the fourth round (No. 122 overall), while the Milwaukee Brewers got a future National Cy Young winner in Corbin Burnes in the fifth round (No. 111).
The losers: No team has had fewer 2016 picks make the majors than the Baltimore Orioles and Texas Rangers, with three each. (This could explain why they combined for 212 losses last season). Likewise, the Pirates, who lost 101 games in 2021, have gotten -3.1 WAR from their eight picks — led by lefty Nick Lodolo, at 0.7 (all for the Cincinnati Reds) — to make the majors, the worst from this draft. (Don’t feel too bad for the Bucs; they’ve gotten a whopping 12.4 WAR from the third-best pick of the draft, outfielder Bryan Richards, who went at No. 18 overall to the San Francisco Giants before being traded to Pittsburgh for Andrew McCutchen.)
The Tigers: Avila and his staff picked out eight future MLBers (tied for fourth-most), and his first first-rounder, Manning (a raw high schooler whose first sport was basketball) is starting to show signs of development (once he returns from the injured list this season). The Tigers’ 4.4 WAR ranks 12th … but it’s boosted significantly by the 2.7 WAR of right-hander Keegan Thompson, a 33rd-rounder who didn’t sign, and the 1.8 WAR of righty John Schreiber, a 15th-rounder out of Gibraltar Carlson who was released in 2021 after 28⅔ innings and -0.2 WAR.
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2017
As of Wednesday, 141 of the 1,215 picks from 2017 had made the majors, producing 31.6 WAR. (Thanks to the Royals’ large-scale unwillingness to get vaccinated, costing them 10 members of the 26-man roster for their series in Toronto, that number grew by one, as first-round pick Nick Pratto made his big-league debut vs. the Blue Jays. He went 0-for-3 with three strikeouts and a walk.) Clearly, the class of 2017 has a ways to go to catch up with their 2016 predecessors.
The winners: Find yourself someone to love you as much as the Houston Astros loved their picks, with 12 — including each of the top six — making the majors. Then again, those 12 have only produced 3.1 WAR, led by outfielder Chas McCormick (2.6 WAR). (Two of the 12, righty J.B. Bukauskas and infielder Josh Rojas, were packaged with 2018 first-rounder Seth Beer to bring veteran Zack Greinke back from the Diamondbacks.) The D’backs did OK for themselves in this draft, with credit for an MLB-best 5.5 WAR on their own picks, thanks to drafting catcher Daulton Varsho (3.6 WAR) in the second round and lefty Tarik Skubal (2.3 WAR) — you know where he ended up — in the 29th round.
The losers: The Yankees would have been in the “winners” category for their 4.4 WAR from their seven 2017 picks to make the majors — but the majority of that has been produced by right-hander Garrett Whitlock (3.9 WAR) for the rival Boston Red Sox, after the Yanks exposed the 18th-rounder in the 2020 Rule 5 draft. The Giants and New York Mets each have only one 2017 pick in the majors with pick Nos. 19-20, outfielder Heliot Ramos and lefty David Peterson, producing -0.4 and 2 WAR, respectively. Still, that’s far better than the Dodgers, who have six big-leaguers among their picks, but for a total of -1.7 WAR. (Their NL West-mates, the San Diego Padres, are 29th, with -1.3 WAR.)
The Tigers: Avila doesn’t get credit for Skubal yet, so his Tigers draft has just three big-leaguers, all right-handed pitchers: first-rounder Alex Faedo, 12th-rounder Will Vest and 32nd-rounder Drew Carlton, who have combined for -0.7 WAR. Two of those righties got rough news Friday; Faedo will see a specialist for a hip injury that cropped up earlier this month, while Carlton — arguably the most productive in the majors (0.1 WAR), with a 2.92 ERA and eight strikeouts in 12 1/3 innings — was designated for assignment.
2018
The field of picks to make the majors is dwindling: just 82 of 1,214 picks (6.8%) were in the majors as of Wednesday. (Though yet another Royal made his big-league debut in Toronto on Thursday, as 21st-round outfielder Nate Eaton went 1-for-4 with a solo homer.) Despite that smaller number, 2018 picks have already produced 46.6 WAR, led by Tampa Bay lefty Shane McClanahan (5.4 WAR), who went No. 31 overall.
The winners: McClanahan, who’s headed to his first All-Star game this year, gives the Rays a healthy lead, at 7.2 WAR, a full two WAR ahead of the Mariners at No. 2. (The other star of the Rays’ draft, however, is a rare misfire by that franchise: righty Joe Ryan has two WAR — all for the Twins, who picked him up in exchange for 55 games of Nelson Cruz last summer.) The Mariners’ 5.2 WAR is also driven by pitching, with first-rounder Logan Gilbert (No. 18 overall) producing 3.4 WAR and righty reliever Penn Murfee putting up 0.6 WAR in just 33 games. (Oh, and if quantity matters, the White Sox have had eight picks make the majors, though their best, No. 4 overall Nick Madrigal, is already a Chicago Cub.)
The losers: Incredibly, there are two franchises without a 2018 pick in the majors: The Yankees, which is understandable considering their veteran-heavy commitment to winning, and the Rangers, who (as we alluded to earlier) lost 102 games last season. Four other franchises — the Braves, Dodgers, Orioles and Red Sox — have had just one draftee make the majors. (Though we think the O’s delay in promoting prospects is tied to the timeline of their rebuild.) Also of note, we’re pretty sure the A’s won’t be getting anything from their top pick, at No. 9 overall: outfielder Kyler Murray had a pretty good fallback plan — quarterback for the NFL’s Arizona Cardinals.
The Tigers: Did we mention it was a strong draft for pitchers? That was good news for Avila, who landed Casey Mize at No. 1 overall. Mize produced 2.8 WAR before an elbow injury shut him down for 2022 and likely all of 2023, and ninth-rounder Tarik Skubal (No. 255 overall) has 2.3 WAR. In all, the Tigers’ four picks to make the majors have combined for five WAR, good for third among all franchises in 2018.
2019
The first major wave of 2019 picks began to arrive this year, with notable picks such as Rutschman (No. 1), Bobby Witt Jr. (No. 2) and, of course, Riley Greene (No. 5) making their debuts, following the mixed results of Alek Manoah (No. 11) and Andrew Vaughn (No. 3) last season. In all, 22 2019 picks (out of 1,217) have combined for 13.8 WAR.
The winners: More than 40% of that WAR total comes from Manoah’s work for the Blue Jays; an All-Star this season, the West Virginia product has a career 2.79 ERA with 22 strikeouts in 219⅓ innings. Manoah is the only Jays pick to make the majors, while six franchises have had two picks get the call. Still, those six are behind the production the Braves have gotten from their lone 2019 big-leaguer, lefty Michael Harris (1.5 WAR, with eight homers in 45 games).
The losers: It’s probably too soon to call any team’s draft a failure, with 14 first-rounders yet to make their big-league debuts. Still, the Giants can’t be feeling great about their draft; their lone pick to make the majors, eighth-rounder Caleb Kilian, is a Cub (dealt away in the Kris Bryant trade last summer) and their first-rounder, outfielder Hunter Bryant, is still in High-A at age 24. (Bryant was a teammate of Spencer Torkelson’s at Arizona State; perhaps there’s something in the water in Tempe.)
The Tigers: Greene, now that he’s healthy, has lived up to expectations, but Avila’s true gem could be right-hander Beau Brieske, who went in the 27th round (at No. 802 overall) and has 0.8 WAR in 15 starts. Another late-round find? 19th-rounder Kerry Carpenter, who has seven doubles and two homers in 15 games since getting promoted to Triple-A last month.
2020
Just four teams have had a 2020 pick reach the majors, for a total of five picks (out of a potential 160) and 3.6 WAR, so we’re definitely not judging this draft quite yet. (We promise, Tork.)
The winners: The Braves, though, appear to be clear winners based on their fourth-round pick, right-hander Spencer Strider (No. 126 overall). The Clemson product has produced 2.3 WAR since his 2021 debut and has been on a heater since entering the Braves’ rotation on May 30: 73 strikeouts (and 17 walks) in 46 innings. (Atlanta’s fifth-rounder, right-hander Bryce Elder has 0.1 WAR in four starts this season.) The Angels, meanwhile, got a no-hitter (and 0.7 WAR) this season from their first-rounder, Reid Detmers, though Detmers was sent down for a spell afterward.
The losers: Two first-rounders from this class have already been dealt away — the Blue Jays sent shortstop Austin Martin (No. 5) to Minnesota for righty Jose Berrios, while the Mets sent outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong (No. 19) to the Cubs for two months of Javier Baez. Both Martin and Crow-Armstrong are likely a few years from contributing on the big-league level, however.
The Tigers: Torkelson, of course, is the big flop of the 2020 draft, with his -1.1 WAR threatening to set the mark for the worst rookie season by a No. 1 overall pick in MLB history (dating back to the draft’s origin in 1965). There’s hope from another West Coast-raised hitter, though; White Sox slugger Andrew Vaughn, the No. 3 pick in 2019 out of Cal, struggled to 0.2 WAR last year before recovering for a solid (0.4 WAR in 69 games) sophomore season.
2021
It’s WAY too early to separate last year’s draft into winners and losers; just one of the 612 players selected have made the majors: Angels 11th-rounder Chase Silseth. The righty out of Arizona posted a 1.75 ERA over 36 innings in Double-A this year, earning him a shot in the bigs on May 13. In 24⅔ innings with the Halos, he has 19 strikeouts, eight walks and a 5.84 ERA.
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.