Detroit Tigers (50-80) vs. Seattle Mariners (72-58)
When: 1:10 p.m. Thursday.
Where: Comerica Park in Detroit.
TV: Bally Sports Detroit.
Radio: WXYT-FM (97.1; other radio affiliates).
First-pitch weather forecast: Sunny, 78 degrees.
Probable starting pitchers: Tigers LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (3-3, 3.60 ERA) vs. Mariners RHP Logan Gilbert (10-5, 3.49 ERA).
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Tigers lineup: TBA
Game notes: In case you needed additional evidence of the wall young pitchers often hit in the second half of the oh-so-long big-league season, we present Logan Gilbert’s 2022 season with the M’s.
In the first half, the 2018 first-round pick (No. 14 overall out of Stetson University, 13 picks after injured Tigers starter Casey Mize) looked like he’d be leading a playoff rotation, posting a 2.76 ERA while striking out 104 and walking 29 over 111 innings en route to a 10-3 record.
But since the All-Star break, Gilbert has struggled, with a 5.59 ERA, 29 strikeouts and 12 walks in 38 2/3 innings. Some of that can be attributed to the strength of schedule, with back-to-back starts against the AL West-leading Houston Astros and back-to-back starts against the AL East-leading New York Yankees in his first four outings of the second half. And indeed, Gilbert has posted quality starts (at least six innings, three earned runs or less) in two of his three starts since, albeit against the mostly woeful lineups of the Texas Rangers, Oakland Athletics and Cleveland Guardians.
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Of course, in facing the Tigers, he gets the most woeful lineup in the majors, with just 3.32 runs per game this season. (Even if we started counting from June 18, when Riley Greene finally debuted, the Tigers have averaged just 3.98 runs a game — more than half a run below the league average on the year.)
Gilbert relies HEAVILY — 54.8% of the time — on his four-seam fastball, and it has been solid, with a whiff rate of 22.8% and a strikeout rate of 20.7%. That’s good news for shortstop Javier Báez, who is hitting .318 and slugging .545 on four-seamers this season. But manager A.J. Hinch will likely wait until Gilbert is out of the game to get rookie Spencer Torkelson a plate appearance; the 2020 No. 1 overall pick, set to be recalled from Triple-A with September’s roster expansion, struggled with four-seamers in his first go-round, with a .139 average and .241 slugging percentage on 400 four-seamers.
Eduardo Rodriguez, meanwhile, makes his third start for the Tigers since returning from his injury/personal leave. He’ll likely want to work around a couple of veteran Mariners: Outfielder Mitch Haniger is 7-for-21 with three doubles off Rodriguez, and shortstop J.P. Crawford is 4-for-9 with a pair of doubles.
After the Tigers wrap up their series against the M’s, they’ll host the AL’s OTHER full-season rookie wonder, shortstop Bobby Witt Jr., and the Kansas City Royals, who hit Comerica for a three-game series beginning Friday night. The M’s will be headed a bit farther East to take on the Guardians in another wild-card berth showdown.
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Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.