In nine months and a few days, the Tigers no longer will be paying Miguel Cabrera. His contract will be up, and at age 40, he presumably will have retired, barring some form of improbable — maybe impossible — 2023 renaissance.
That will leave the Tigers wearing a single pair of payroll handcuffs: Javier Baez’s contract, which after the 2023 season will require Detroit to pay him $98 million for the 2024-27 seasons.
In their frenzy last year for a starting shortstop, and with CEO Chris Ilitch inviting them to spend whatever digestible sum they had to pay for lineup help, the Tigers decided a then-29-year-old Baez was worth six years and $140 million.
This barge-full of cash seemed defensible at the time, even if Baez had shown he could be a bit erratic in his overall game, and even if he wasn’t particularly discreet about pitches he attacked.
All of those traits, plus and minus, showed up during Baez’s first season in Detroit. He batted .238. He had a skinny on-base average of .278. He had a meager .671 OPS and a WAR (wins above replacement) of 2.5.
Not the kind of stuff you would have expected from a $140-million man.
Now a question has surfaced, as well as a debate:
Is it possible Baez will opt out of his contract? He has that allowance written into his Tigers deal, following a second season in Detroit.
Is it more possible Baez will gamble when this year’s offseason market for shortstops has gone the route of late-‘90s tech stocks: Carlos Correa, $315 million; Trea Turner, $300 million; Xander Bogaerts, $280 million; Dansby Swanson, $177 million.
With the exception of Bogaerts, who is two months older than Baez, all of the above are MLB stars, either 28 or 29 years old. So, the age difference isn’t by itself disqualifying in thinking about Baez as a possible 2024 free agent.
Two more thoughts explain why this, increasingly, is intriguing conversation:
While he had a mostly somber 2022 season, Baez finished more in tune with his talents when, in his final 30 games, he batted .293, with a .322 on-base percentage and .831 OPS. He also hit six of his 17 homers in 2022 during that final month.
So, look again at those above expenditures. See a year from now Baez, who will have just turned 31 and who will be owed, by comparison, a more reasonable $98 million.
Does he decide to roll the dice and opt-out? Does another shortstop-needy team see in Baez a veritable bargain, assuming Baez has something on the order of a 3-4-WAR year, which lots of teams would take at shortstop?
I know smart baseball people who are betting big on just that scenario.
That group does not include a scribe who cannot see it happening and who spent part of this week quizzing various MLB front-office personnel about Baez and possible free agency next autumn.
The problem, in these people’s minds — they insisted on anonymity because of secrecy all MLB front offices maintain toward rival personnel — is Baez’s big bugaboo: The strike zone.
He chases too many pitches. Always has. Other clubs see no changing in a leopard’s spots during the 2023 season.
Factor in age, his often-adventuresome throws from shortstop, as well as thoughts the Tigers might soon move Baez to second base, and, no, the MLB people polled say they see no likely FA market — nothing that would exceed his guaranteed $98 million — should he decide to bid Detroit goodbye.
This, of course, could change, absolutely.
- Baez could have an All-Star-grade season in 2022. He already has made two All-Star teams, and in 2018, with the Cubs, finished second in MVP voting. So, there’s some history on his behalf.
- The market could be as nutso next autumn as it became during this hallucinogenic past month, when $300-million deals, and $86-million handouts for two seasons (Justin Verlander), became part of a typical day’s free-agent shopping.
- Baez could also decide he simply wants out and will take his chances. This has plausibility for a couple of reasons: He, justly, doesn’t like what Comerica Park does to hitters. Nor does he appreciate that in Detroit you might not see 60 degrees until May.
- He might also decide playing for a team that probably won’t sniff the playoffs for at least a couple of years isn’t what he had in mind, especially if Comerica Park’s customers don’t care for his approach to hitting, nor his manner of throwing to first base.
How all of this goes down with new front-office boss Scott Harris will likewise be interesting.
Harris has made a point of focusing on the strike zone — pitchers as well as hitters. He has made proficiency in throwing and swinging at strikes integral to any of his offseason deals, large and small.
Needless to say, Javier Baez would have had zero chance a year ago of being signed by Harris.
Other options
Is there a deal down the road, with the Tigers eating a fair amount of Baez’s remaining pay? In other words, a Prince Fielder exit ramp? Remember how then-GM Dave Dombrowski was able to off-load Fielder ($168 million owed for the following seven seasons with the Tigers picking up $30 million of the balance) in a 2013 deal that brought Ian Kinsler to the Tigers from Texas? Key there was having another club interested, the Rangers. Baez promises no such appeal, today, but down the road — it’s never wise in sports to bank on certainties.
Another factor is that any possible trade would figure to happen only after 2023. Baez’s opt-out freedom next autumn would seemingly dissuade clubs from dealing for him next year, even if, say, a contending team would lose its shortstop to a torn knee or shoulder surgery or whatever malady might strike and need valid plug-in help, fast.
Still, there are those who say — rather, they insist — Baez is headed for a new life and new contract come next November when the free-agent aisles open for what could be another round of dizzying bids.
The Tigers, at least privately, wouldn’t complain.
They have some kids in the hopper, for a change, with Cristian Santana, Peyton Graham, Danny Serretti, and others likely, in a year or so, to offer Harris and manager AJ Hinch more appealing options, at more affordable dollars, than Baez at the moment promises.
There has been a quiet countdown during the latter years of Cabrera’s contract. The Tigers, and even most fans, have been longing for liberation from annual $32-million pay-outs that were locked in by way of his earlier superstar years in Detroit.
But, unless Baez opts out a year from now, or makes possible at some point a trade that today seems dubious, a new countdown will begin. The Tigers today owe Baez $128 million.
The paydays, for now, will continue — wrapping up in October 2027.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.