In this supposed new age of MLB front-office draft assessing, where it’s trendy to view hitters as being a safer and more productive choice than pitchers in those immediate first-round turns, is there room for Paul Skenes to be a first-overall pick on July 9?
Or, with specific respect to the Detroit Tigers, can a gunslinger on Skenes’ level rank as a man so overpowering, he realistically couldn’t last past the Tigers, who pick No. 3 in this year’s MLB Draft’s first round?
Would the Tigers bite on yet another pitcher? Would new front-office boss Scott Harris and his draft lieutenants, Rob Metzler and Mark Conner, up-end prognosticators who figure Detroit is all but done drafting Day One pitchers?
Friday night showed why Skenes is a top-three, and perhaps top-overall, candidate in July.
Skenes (pronounced: Skeens) is a right-handed ace for Louisiana State who towers at 6-foot-6, 240 pounds and who Friday night against Butler incinerated 13 batters in six innings. He paired those 13 whiffs with not a single walk. He allowed one hit, a single.
His fastball topped out at 101 mph. His average — average — fastball sat at 98. Hitters who swung at his fireball missed at a 64% clip.
He matches his heater with a vicious, swerving slider.
He does not turn 21 until May 29.
In reality, the Tigers might not care when Skenes is plucked, so good — today — are the top three prizes who probably are a consensus trio among MLB scouts.
Those two sterling Southeast Conference outfielders, Dylan Crews (LSU) and Wyatt Langford (University of Florida), look like franchise-grade talents. The Tigers for most of the past 40 years have had a malnourished farm when it comes to bats and would figure to be happy with either Crews or Langford — if they’re there at No. 3.
And if Crews and Langford, by chance, go 1-2? The Tigers might conceivably regard Skenes as the best college pitcher they’ve had a chance to grab since Justin Verlander stepped out of Old Dominion in 2004.
That’s how furious is Skenes’ fastball in March, 2023.
Back to draft order and how the three top teams might respond:
The Pirates pick first-overall on July 9. They aren’t always predictable because budgets have been known to factor in their draft strategies. Dollars dispersals more than scouting reports sometimes have entered the picture when Pittsburgh has decided that spreading its amateur-draft allowance among a cluster of players is smarter than spending, say $7 million or more, for an early, early pick.
So, money could for the Pirates be a consideration if Crews, Langford, or even Skenes is holding out for a brand of cash the Pirates find unsettling.
The Nationals own this year’s runner-up draft seat and haven’t minded at all taking a pitcher early – as long as he carries the firepower Skenes already has conclusively shown.
Recall another right-hander, Stephen Strasburg, who like Skenes is a native Californian. Strasburg was a dynamo at San Diego State in 2009 when the Nationals decided he was too potent to pass on with that year’s first-overall pick.
Skenes could rank for the Nationals as another Strasburg as spring, 2023, evolves.
So, no matter what the Pirates or Nats do at 1 and 2, the Tigers probably like both their chances at getting a whopper of a prize, and the increasingly strong possibility Crews or Langford will be sitting, unclaimed, at that third-overall draft slot.
Skenes is now three games into his LSU season after transferring from the Air Force Academy.
His numbers: Three starts, 18 innings pitched, six hits, one run, three walks, 36 strikeouts.
He’ll be doing more of this during the next three or so months. And, presuming his health holds as it has these past three seasons at Air Force and now LSU, thinking Skenes will slip past either the Pirates, Nats – or Tigers – doesn’t jibe with most scouts’ view.
Skenes today qualifies as particularly tall timber. The kind that doesn’t stick around a draft board, even three picks deep.
Detroit News ranking of the top 10 amateur baseball talents as they currently sit leading into the 2023 MLB Draft, set for July 9-11.
1. Dylan Crews, Louisiana State University, outfielder, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, RH batter: Had an unremarkable week against Texas, Butler, and Central Connecticut State (4-for-13), which included a three-run homer. This, though, is baseball, and Crews still is batting .472 in 11 games, with a 1.398 OPS (11 walks, seven strikeouts). He is destined for probable top-two consideration, if he in fact slips from that consensus first-overall draft chair Crews today occupies. Last week’s ranking: 1.
2. Wyatt Langford, CF, University of Florida, 6-1, .225, RH batter: Here is Crews’ running mate for a possible one-overall draft-day prize, at least among position players. Last week (against Jacksonville and University of Miami) was another Roman-candle show: He hit four home runs and a pair of doubles and in 13 games has made pitchers very, very afraid of his next at-bat. The numbers: .438 batting average, 1.533 OPS, six homers, six doubles, a triple – and solid work in center field. Last week’s ranking: 2
3. Paul Skenes, RH starter, LSU, 6-6, 240: The scouts are flooding LSU’s games these days, and not only to see Crews. Skenes is showing such extraordinary stuff he could easily soar to first-overall standing come July. His fastball, which can top 100 mph, is but one reason among a quiver full of skills scouts are drooling over. Last week’s ranking: 5.
4. Chase Dollander, RH starter, University of Tennessee, 6-2, 210: Right there with Skenes, as much as any pitcher can compete with LSU’s ace. Dollander and his high high-caliber fastball and slider last week destroyed Gonzaga as he put together a six-inning, shutout stint that included 11 strikeouts and no walks. Last week’s ranking: 3
5. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi, 6-2, 200, LH batter: A serious question about Gonzalez is how long he’ll stick at shortstop. But regardless whether he plays there or elsewhere in a MLB infield, the bat should hold up. Gonzalez last week beat up on three Big Ten teams (Maryland, Nebraksa, and Minnesota), as well as Louisiana and is doing just fine through 12 games: .413 batting average, 1.180 OPS, 10 walks, six whiffs. Last week’s ranking: 4.
6. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Grand Canyon University, 6-3, 190, RH batter: Competition isn’t exactly SEC-grade in Wilson’s conference, but scouts know who measures up and who doesn’t. And Wilson, the son of 12-season big-leaguer Jack Wilson, almost certainly will stick as Top 10 material straight into July. He damages good pitches. Last week’s ranking: 6.
7. Hurston Waldrep, RH starter, University of Florida, 6-2, 205: Don’t be fooled by Saturday’s statistically rough day against Miami (six innings, seven hits, five earned runs). Waldrep had 20 swings-and-misses, with his split-change an absolute dagger. He struck out 14 batters. Last week’s ranking: 7.
8. Rhett Lowder, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-2, 200: Super-silky repertoire that was on full display Friday night against Purdue-Ft. Wayne: seven innings, 89 pitches, six hits, eight punch-outs, no walks. For the season: three starts, 0.47 ERA, 0.68 WHIP, 19 innings, two walks, 26 whiffs. Excellent fastball-slider combo that Lowder wields. Last week’s ranking: 8.
9. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Indiana) Community High School, 6-1, 190, LH batter: The Tigers are well aware of Clark and his potential to be one of those prep rockets who climbs into top-overall territory, as Jackson Holliday and Druw Jones did a year ago. Clark’s season doesn’t begin until later this month, but MLB scouts will be on him, in bushels. Last week’s ranking: 9.
10. Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia, 6-1, 190, LH batter: Great athlete with hitting skills that will hold up whether or not he sticks at catcher, which is a question that could keep him from Top 6 (or higher) consideration. But the bat will play, as will his strike-zone savvy. Through 11 games, Teel sits at .575/.646/.825/1.441, with two homers, four doubles, seven walks, and two strikeouts. Last week’s ranking: unranked.
Dropped from Top 10 status:
Brayden Taylor, 3B, Texas Christian, 6-1, 175, LH batter: An off-key weekend for Taylor against Texas-Arlington, the University of Michigan, Louisville, and Rice. Taylor sits in early March at .317 (batting average), with a .969 OPS. Things will get better, for sure. But there’s heavy competition for Top 10 tickets and, for the moment, Taylor misses. Last week’s ranking: 10.