The weather is certainly winter-like this week in Detroit, but we have two things to remind us that it’s spring once again: The Detroit Tigers opening the 2023 season against the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday afternoon and, of course, the annual installments of the Free Press’ burning questions heading in to the season.
Last season was a downer, with a Tigers squad full of potential (and coming off the first 70-win season since 2016) face-planting to the tune of a 9-23 start en route to a 66-96 finish. General manager Al Avila was fired in midseason, as the Tigers hired Scott Harris as president of baseball operations and the former San Francisco Giants general manager began reshaping the roster — and the franchise as a whole — for the 21st century. (Just 23 years in…) What went wrong? Well, just about everything — from injuries to pitchers (see you soon, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal) to ineffective veteran hitters (see you sometime, Jeimer Candelario) to slow-to-start rookies (hey there, Spencer Torkelson!).
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Expectations are low — even more so than the past few years — but that doesn’t mean there aren’t questions to be answered heading into the 2023 season. With that in mind, we had five Free Press sports writers — Ryan Ford, Carlos Monarrez, Evan Petzold, Jeff Seidel and Shawn Windsor — take their best shots at predicting the results for 2023.
Will they whiff, like so many Javier Báez at-bats against a down-and-away slider, or connect like, uh … well, there weren’t a lot of Tigers connecting with anything last season. But anyway, the burning questions …
How many games will the Tigers win?
Carlos Monarrez
69. It’s going to be a dogfight between the Tigers and the Athletics to see which team avoids being the worst in baseball. Consider it a victory if the Tigers top the A’s. There are just too many injuries in the starting rotation and not enough pop at the plate to expect much this year.
Evan Petzold
73. Offense is all that matters. Last season, the Tigers ranked 30th in MLB with 3.44 runs per game. They received career-worst performances from veteran hitters Javier Báez, Jonathan Schoop and Austin Meadows. Báez and Meadows, former All-Star players, are bounce-back candidates. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson, both entering their sophomore seasons, should take a step forward, while the additions of Nick Maton, who draws walks, and Matt Vierling, who limits strikeouts, should balance the production. All things considered, a seven-win improvement from last season appears feasible.
Jeff Seidel
81. The offense will be improved from 2022 — no way can it get worse. Greene and Torkelson will take the next step. Báez will be more consistent. The Tigers will get more out of their catchers — Jake Rogers is gonna have a fantastic season. A couple of youngsters (Parker Meadows and Andre Lipcius) will surprise. The Philly boys (Maton and Vierling) will be fantastic. Schoop will return to normal. And manager A.J. Hinch will have the bullpen humming.
Shawn Windsor
72. Let’s give em’ a six-game bump. And how about we call it the Scott Harris effect. No? Then how about the we’re-healthier-now effect? Besides, about this time last year the organization was talking postseason and the Tigers came north wrapped in buzzy dreams of meaningful games in September. Now there is no buzz at all. Naturally, the Tigers will create some for a week or two. Also, the offense should be a little better and that alone is worth six games.
Ryan Ford
77. OK, maybe this is a bit optimistic considering last season. But with EVERYTHING going wrong that could, they still won 66 games. Simply put, the offense can’t possibly be as bad as it was last season, and the pitchers can’t get hurt as often, can they?
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Who will be the Tigers’ breakout player in 2023?
Monarrez
Vierling. It would behoove the Tigers if the answer was Torkelson, but it’s going to be Vierling, the right-handed hitting right fielder with power against righties who hits lefties better overall. Vierling, 26, has World Series experiences in two seasons with Philadelphia and is trying to become more than a platoon player.
Petzold
Mason Englert. The 23-year-old joined the Tigers from the Texas Rangers in Rule 5 draft and needs to stay on the 26-man roster for the entire season. In spring training, Englert posted a 2.25 ERA with two walks and 14 strikeouts in 12 innings out of the bullpen. The fastball averages 93 mph. The slider generates whiffs and called strikes. The changeup is his best secondary pitch (and a weapon against left-handed hitters). Also, he threw 75% strikes this spring. Don’t forget Englert tossed 118⅔ innings as a starter in the minor leagues last season. If all goes well this year, he could compete for a job in the Tigers’ rotation in 2024.
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Seidel
Torkelson. He was crushing the ball all spring, right from the first workout. He looks more confident and comfortable. But more than that, he seems to have found mental peace, chasing good at bats, not results. The good news? The results will be there.
Windsor
Greene. Too easy? OK, then how about Torkelson. Better yet, how about we define what we mean by breakout. If Greene takes a step — or three — up this season, and stops striking out so much, then that would be considered a breakout. Among the young players, he has the best chance to break out the most. As for Torkelson, jumping off the .200-line would be a big improvement, so maybe we should call his potential rise a rebound? Does it matter? No, because the Tigers need both to play to their promise this summer.
Ford
Maton. He hit five homers in Triple-A last season, five more in the regular season with the Phillies, and then had five for the Tigers in just 19 spring games. Will he keep up this new 40-homer pace? Probably not, but hitting .270 with 20 homers and 20 doubles seems doable and would give Detroit some stability in the infield.
Who will be the Tigers’ All-Star selection?
Monarrez
Miguel Cabrera. It should be Greene, but how can you not go with Miggy in his farewell season? The future Hall of Famer will be lucky to hit his weight and if he improves upon his five homers from 2022, that would be impressive at 40 years old. But he’s earned one final tip of the cap as an All-Star.
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Petzold
The saves leader entering the second week in July. Maybe that’s Alex Lange, or José Cisnero, or even Trey Wingenter. For now, Lange is the pick because his tough-to-hit swing-and-miss arsenal should warrant opportunities in the ninth inning, but unless he starts throwing strikes, that could change quickly. A reliever has been the Tigers’ primary All-Star representative in each of the past four full seasons: Joe Jiménez in 2018, Shane Greene in 2019, Gregory Soto in 2021 and Soto again in 2022. Expect another reliever this time around.
Seidel
Turnbull. He hasn’t pitched in a game since June 4, 2021. But he has recovered from Tommy John surgery. It seems like a lifetime ago but Turnbull is capable of absolute brilliance. Like on May 18, 2001, when he no-hit Seattle. That season, he threw 50 innings, had a 2.88 ERA, struck out 44 and walked just 12. That guy? Yeah, he could be an All-Star.
Windsor
Greene. Of course. And: Who else? Yes, it’s not cool to give Greene the nod in more than one of these questions here, but then that’s why I mentioned Torkelson. He has a longer climb anyway, making any kind of breakout more notable. But back to Riley, and that gorgeous swing, and that easy power, which he effortlessly displayed this spring. As mentioned, he struck out too much last season, and while the math may shrug its shoulders, the mechanics won’t: His swing is too pretty not to make more contact.
Ford
Greene. Shouldn’t that make him the breakout player? Perhaps, though, frankly, expectations are much, much higher for the 2019 No. 5 overall pick in his second big-league season. If he can continue showing the power he has this spring — three doubles, one triple, four homers in just 52 at-bats, he’ll be sharing time with Seattle’s homegrown star, Julio Rodriguez, in center at T-Mobile Park in July.
How many home runs will Miguel Cabrera hit in his final season?
Monarrez
6. He’ll start out hot with homer or two in his fortnight, while he’s his freshest, with favorable matchups. But when he turns 40 on April 18, all those candles start to flicker on his birthday cake, along with his power at the plate. As a fun feel-good moment, I’ll predict he homers in early May at Comerica Park off New York Mets great Justin Verlander.
Evan Petzold
2. Cabrera hit two home runs in his final 311 plate appearances last season, and since I’m predicting 233 plate appearances this season (with at least one stint on the injured list), two homers seems like a fair prediction. Cabrera, who turns 40 in mid-April and has chronic right knee pain, won’t be an everyday designated hitter. He might play one game per series, primarily against left-handed pitchers, so the opportunity for homers will be limited.
Seidel
5. Cabrera is going to be focused on hits, not home runs, climbing up the hit list. He’s got 3,088 hits in his career, which ranks 24th. If Cabrera gets 100 hits, he’ll pass Cal Ripken, Jr. (3,184) and move into the top 15. He’s gotten more than 100 hits in the last two seasons, so it’s entirely possible. Only if he focuses on hits. Not dingers. A few might happen by accident. But he’s gonna spray the ball all season.
Windsor
12. He will only hit two in the first half of the season. And then, Cabrera’s inner showman will take over, and the future Hall-of-Famer will go on his last (relative) power surge, giving the late summer crowds something to smile about. Cabrera’s always had a sense of the moment. He’ll also get to pick his spots more judiciously this season. Twelve is a big number, of course. But with a little injury luck – a big ask of the Gods, yes – he should be set up to sail off as he nods to the talent that made him a wonder.
Ford
10. Cabrera had just five homers last season, and only one over the final two months of 2022. So why double it in 2023? I’ll bet on a reduced workload keeping him a bit healthier, and a lack of pressure — the milestones are all passed — letting Miggy be Miggy a little more often.