Detroit — The front office is new, the roster revamped, the organization completely overhauled. So, here’s my deep, thoughtful analysis of the 2023 Tigers: They have to be better than awful, right?
Sure. Also, not necessarily.
Unfortunately, defining success remains murky with this team. Miguel Cabrera’s final season will be on the marquee, and he’s likely to deliver a few more memories. But, this has to be about so much more. It’s been nine years since the Tigers sniffed the playoffs, and nearly as long since they sniffed .500. You could argue the organization suffered a horrible spate of injury misfortune while going 66-96 last season. You also could argue they paid penance for a horrible job of player acquisition and development.
In many ways, they’re back at Ground Zero, seven years after sitting at Ground Zero. Analytics and Vegas odds peg this as approximately a 69-win team, which suggests modest improvement. With new president of baseball operations Scott Harris and manager A.J. Hinch — a respected duo — we need to see real improvement, real development of young players and growth of real stars.
There’s hope in a few vestiges of the failed Al Avila regime. Notably, Riley Greene, 22, and Spencer Torkelson, 23. Possibly, Matt Manning and Eduardo Rodriguez. Eventually, Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, both injured. But, as the season dawns, there’s little substance, lots of questions and a stunning lack of legitimate cornerstone players.
One theory is, the Tigers won’t be as bad because there’s no way they’ll be as injured, logically. It’s also unlikely most of their position players will post career-worst numbers again. A big chunk of their pitching spent last year getting various tendons and muscles repaired. The Tigers used 17 starting pitchers and 25 relievers, and their bullpen still managed to be their strength, eighth in the majors in ERA. Harris sold high, trading three bullpen arms — Gregory Soto, Joe Jimenez, Andrew Chafin — for much-needed position players.
Nick Maton and Matt Vierling came over from the Phillies and should provide more flexibility and athletic ability. The bullpen is back to being muddled. In the best-case scenario, the starting pitchers are, well, um, back to being available.
“None of our starting pitchers had a full season,” Hinch said at spring training in Florida. “So, that’ll be a little tricky ramping them up into the year. But man, it’s good to see some of your boys back on the mound.”
Rodriguez could be primed for a bounce-back after signing a hefty contract and then missing much of the season for personal reasons. Spencer Turnbull is back after missing 18 months due to Tommy John surgery. He authored a no-hitter two years ago and remains intriguing. Same with Manning, back from a forearm injury, and Matthew Boyd, back to the Tigers via free agency, now 32, with his slider apparently working.
Harris, 36, speaks in modern-age baseball lingo, which is fine because the Tigers were overdue for modernizing. The coaching and training staffs were bolstered and shuffled. Harris is determined to fix one roster issue that’s so maddening, it defies explanation. He’s trying to collect pitchers and position players who grasp the simplest baseball fundamental: Throw strikes, swing at strikes.
When hired last September, Harris plainly said, “We want to dominate the strike zone on both sides of the ball.” Obvious, right? Not so easy to implement apparently, after watching Tigers hitters flail at sliders outside the zone, fastballs above the zone and any pitch in the dirt. Their offense ranked 27th in strikeout rate and 29th in walk rate last season.
Javier Baez, the free-agent prize of a year ago, had another high strikeout rate and unacceptably low walk rate. He got better as the season wore down — and the pressure wore off — and he’s the type of talent who could take a leap. If not, he could take a hike. He can opt out of his six-year, $140-million deal after this season.
Making changes
The Tigers finally moved in the Comerica Park center-field fence about 10 feet and lowered the outfield walls. At least symbolically, that helps alleviate the excuse that hitters swung freely out of frustration because the dimensions were patently unfair. Baez finished with a .238 batting average and 17 home runs, his lowest full-season total in seven years.
It made no sense for the Tigers to splurge on another free agent, and it has nothing to do with Chris Ilitch’s wallet. The organization has prospects that range from decent to fringe, and it’s time to find out if they have staying power. Harris acquired infielder Maton, 26, and outfielder Vierling, 26, because they showed promise in spot duty with the Phillies, a World Series team, and both should be in the lineup regularly.
“When we entered the offseason, we were looking for controllable young players who embody the offensive identity that we’re working toward — players who control the strike zone,” Harris said. “On the position player side of free agency, it’s really tough to find young controllable players at reasonable acquisition costs. I didn’t think it made sense for us to invest significant at-bats in veteran players who will not be a part of this team beyond 2023 or so. Those at at-bats are too valuable for us.”
So, they’ll eventually go to players like Kerry Carpenter, Ryan Kreidler, Eric Haase, Akil Baddoo, Parker Meadows and others. Gone are guys who once had hints of lasting value, such as third baseman Jeimer Candelario. Willi Castro, Harold Castro and Victor Reyes also departed. Baez and Jonathan Schoop remain, primarily because of their contracts.
Maybe the Tigers stumble across an outlier, someone like Carpenter, 25, who flashed power in limited action last season. Maybe Austin Meadows regains full health after a turbulent 2022, when he played in only 36 games and didn’t hit a home run. Maybe Maton turns out to be exactly the type of feisty scrapper the Tigers need at third base.
Maybe, maybe, maybe.
Lots of options, almost every one with something to prove. A year ago at this time, there was bubbling optimism because the Tigers had finished strong in 2021 and signed Baez. Now, the optimism comes from the unknown, starting with Harris, a first-time GM who arrived from the Giants and is making no grand proclamations.
“Our goal for this year is to play competitive baseball as deep into the season as we possibly can,” Harris said, choosing his words carefully. “Coming off 96 losses, there are no shortcuts back to contention.”
The Tigers lost a big chunk of their fan base over the past decade, but it’ll return if given reason to do so. Expectations/demands should start with a basic minimum. We need to see the development of at least three cornerstone position players, with Greene the most likely candidate. We need to see the rise of two or three cornerstone pitchers, with Turnbull, Rodriguez and Matt Manning the early possibilities.
We should see fewer hideous swings, better defense and more power. The record will only be one measure of progress, and I’m guessing it’ll be 68-94, or thereabouts. As always, the Tigers are invited — and strongly encouraged — to surprise us and deliver more.
Twitter: @bobwojnowski