Milwaukee — Not sure what to make of what we’re seeing from Javier Báez’s at-bats over the last couple of weeks.
He took a 10-game hitting streak into the series finale against the Brewers on Wednesday, slashing .378/.415/.487 with a .901 OPS, four doubles, seven RBIs and three walks. All good things.
He is still chasing pitches, but not nearly as many as he has and was earlier in the year (41% chase rate down from 47.5% last season). His swing-and-miss rate is down (26.7%) and he has the lowest strikeout rate on the team (17.6%), with the highest walk rate of his career (7.1%).
All really good things.
And yet, he hasn’t hit a home run since last Oct. 3 at Seattle. Before Wednesday, he’d gone 96 plate appearances without a homer. His wRC-plus (weighted runs created) is 63 — second only to 57 in the shortened 2020 season. His isolated power percentage (which combines slugging and average) is .052, the lowest of his career.
Not necessarily good things for a club’s $22 million per year shortstop.
Legitimate concern or ridiculous take?
“Everybody associates homers with impact and that’s not fair to him,” manager AJ Hinch said. “That’s not right. It’s not the end-all, be-all for him. It’s part of the story over the last 10 games, but he could hit four homers today and everybody would be fine.”
For sure, Báez has had some big hits in this stretch. The 12-pitch two-run double against the Giants back on April 15 completely changed the narrative of that game, which the Tigers won on a walk-off single by Miguel Cabrera.
The night before that, Báez singled, doubled, walked, scored one and knocked in one ahead of Nick Maton’s game-winning three-run homer.
He came into the game Wednesday already with four hits and a walk in the Tigers two wins in this series. The Tigers were 6-4 during the 10-game hitting streak.
“We don’t have our guys trying to chase a certain outcome,” Hinch said. “We want Javy to swing at strikes. And when he rifles a single to right-center at 100-and-something miles per hour (exit velocity), or he hits the double to left in a 12-pitch at-bat — it’s hard to argue that’s not impact.
“Homers, sure. But I think the homers are going to come in bunches for him.”
During this streak, Báez has used a 34.5-inch bat, a half-inch longer than he was using. He has been better able to get the barrel to some of the outside pitches he was missing. But his launch angle, usually 10 degrees, has been 8.7 degrees, more level.
His contact rate is up (83% in the strike zone) but he’s not elevating balls as often (career-high 51% ground ball rate). For Hinch, the contact rate trumps the ball flight.
“We want him to make really good decisions on what pitches to swing at, pitches he can hit hard and keep the line moving,” Hinch said. “As far as controlling the strike zone, he’s done a better job of that. He’s been patient at the beginning of games and he’s getting himself in some great counts.
“The results are going to be based on the process he puts in at the plate.”
Meaning, the more good swing decisions he makes, the more he controls the strike zone, the less he chases, the more contact he makes, the better his chances of driving more balls into the seats.
Bottom-line, the Tigers will happily embrace this current version of Javier Báez.
At the top
Hinch put Zach McKinstry in the leadoff spot Wednesday against Brewers’ right-hander Freddy Peralta.
“His at-bats have been really good,” Hinch said. “I made him promise me that he’s not going to try to do anything differently, no matter where he hits. We really want our guys to focus on the at-bat regardless of where we put them in the order.
“He promised me he wouldn’t all of a sudden try to be something he hasn’t been.”
McKinstry is not unfamiliar with the leadoff spot. It was his 25th career start in the one-hole. He’s slashed .227/.299/.423 in that spot, with three home runs. He won’t be shy about ambushing fastballs.
“I’m going to go at it just like I would any other at-bat,” McKinstry said. “If he’s in the zone early, I’m going to try to attack him early.”
Around the horn
Cabrera had two hits Tuesday night. One left his bat at 108 mph and traveled 384 feet. The other didn’t get out of the infield. Both were singles. He hit the first one so hard, it caromed hard off the wall back to the right fielder. Cabrera had to hold at first. It was the 880th multi-hit game of his career, passing Robin Yount and tying Rogers Hornsby for 19th all-time in Major League history.
…The Brewers gave Cabrera a video tribute before the game, featuring former Tigers Quintin Berry and Willy Adames, as well as William Contreras. The Brewers also presented Cabrera a check for $5,000 for his foundation. The capper, though, was when Cabrera put on the cheesehead hat. Priceless.
On deck: Baltimore Orioles
▶ Series: Four games at Comerica Park, Detroit
▶ First pitch: Thursday-Friday — 6:40 p.m.; Saturday — 1:10 p.m.; Sunday — 1:40 p.m.
▶ TV/radio: All four games on Bally Sports Detroit/97.1 FM
▶ Probables: Thursday — RHP Kyle Gibson (4-0, 3.60) vs. LHP Joey Wentz (0-3, 7.56); Friday — RHP Grayson Rodriguez (0-0, 5.12) vs. LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 2.32); Saturday — RHP Dean Kremer (2-0, 6.20) vs. LHP Matthew Boyd (1-1, 4.26); Sunday — RHP Kyle Bradish (1-0, 6.30) vs. RHP Spencer Turnbull (1-3, 7.25).
Scouting report
▶ Gibson, Orioles: He bullied the Tigers for six-plus innings last Saturday at Camden Yards. He punched out 11 and allowed just two hits. He was carving up Tigers hitters primarily with his sweeper (eight swinging strikes) and sinker (15 called strikes). In all he got 18 whiffs and 25 called strikes.
▶ Wentz, Tigers: Pitching opposite Gibson last Saturday, Wentz endured a four-run third inning, all four runs coming with two outs, the big blow a three-run double by Ramon Urias. His stuff was better than his stat-line would indicate. His four-seam was sitting 94 and touching 96 with late life (10 called strikes). His cutter getting in on right-handed hitters and he was landing both his changeup and curve.
chris.mccosky@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @cmccosky