The MLB season in nearly halfway complete.
You shouldn’t get excited about players returning from injuries because performance and health are particularly unpredictable when athletes ramp up after layoffs. It’s not very encouraging to be nine games below .500 at any point.
At 32-41, Detroit trails Minnesota by four games in the American League Central Division.
Cleveland (35-38) is one game behind the Twins, who occupy the top spot with fewer wins (37) than losses (38).
That means, right now, it’s reasonable for Tigers fans to think about winning a division crown. Of course, it’s June.
The question isn’t whether Detroit is a good team. Strangely, that isn’t what is being determined, and near the midpoint this is what it is.
Tigers pitchers Tarik Skubal and Matt Manning are on rehab assignments at Toledo. Eduardo Rodriguez is throwing pitches, seemingly ahead of schedule in his recovery from a finger injury.
Rodriguez was one of the best pitchers in the American League in the first half of the season before his injury. He can opt out of his contract, which might compel Detroit to trade him at the deadline this year.
That’s three starting pitchers the Tigers might be able to insert into a division race. Nobody in the Central has top-tier pitching depth of any sort.
It doesn’t look like any team is going to recover to take control, it looks like all of them are bad.
Cleveland won the division last season and stood still in the offseason with few veterans, with the exception of free agent addition Josh Bell at first base. Owner Paul Dolan thinks that’s a good formula because it’s inexpensive.
The pitching staff always seems to overachieve and it worked out perfect for Dolan last season, but as usual not for the fans. The youngest team in the majors made contact as a team at such a high clip, with limited power, that it resulted in a postseason birth.
That’s not sustainable. In a game of adjustments, you bet the league wouldn’t adjust to the kids.
Hello, not only is it baseball, it’s 2023. Who in the lineup looked like he couldn’t be solved by major league pitchers last season or was going to emerge as a run producer?
Every team in the division, except Cleveland, lacks that truly legit consistent power bat. It’s not coincidence it’s the worst division in baseball.
Who knows, maybe Cleveland will get a boost from call-up Bo Naylor. Detroit’s Riley Greene was one of the top hitters in baseball in May, before a stress reaction in his leg.
The injury was originally diagnosed a fracture and his return might also come with the Tigers lurking, maybe lingering, in the mix.
The White Sox (32-44) were projected by many to win the division. They have yet to rebound from a terrible season last year, but remain one prolonged win streak from jumping back into the conversation.
Kansas City has 20 wins, one more than Oakland. If not for the Athletics, the Royals ineptitude would be more of a story eight years after winning the World Series.
Minnesota, Cleveland and Detroit are similar in that each manager must constantly seek matchup advantages. It’s led the Tigers’ AJ Hinch to play almost everybody at multiple positions on defense.
It also led to Will Vest starting twice on the mound in a four-game series against the Twins last weekend. It’s the Kevin Cash formula for Tampa Bay, and Detroit took three of four games from Minnesota.
The Tigers, 14-9 against division teams, then took two of three from Kansas City. Detroit’s anemic offense was shut out for the 10th time, 1-0 by the Royals in the other game this week.
Jose Ramirez might heat up and carry Cleveland in the second half of the season. More likely, one team in the division will get healthy.
Maybe players will return like Detroit outfielder Kerry Carpenter, who homered in consecutive games this month. Then there’s Tigers outfielder Matt Vierling, who came back, clubbed three home runs, returned to the bench but not injured list and started Wednesday.
Players could come back and experience setbacks or not perform well, there are no guarantees with recovery. It’s also not impossible that enough players in a division lineup will produce enough to provide protection for others and create a somewhat dangerous collection as a whole.
It’s not easy to be the only player in a major league lineup who is hitting. It’s not like other teams don’t notice, that’s why it doesn’t happen.
Greene, Rodriguez, Manning and Skubal could return in some order in the not too distant future. That’s exciting enough for Detroit fans, imagine if they’re playing in meaningful games to win the division.
After 73 games, that’s what it is. And that’s reason to believe it’s what they’ll get.
It doesn’t mean the Tigers are a great team today. It does mean they’re in a postseason discussion because they might be good enough to win the division.
mhorn@gannett.com
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Twitter: @MatthewHornNH