Only days from ending all the drama, the Tigers are in line for a hitter they almost surely will take with that third overall turn Sunday evening when the three-day MLB Draft kicks off.
Will it be either of two college outfielders the Tigers all but know will be there, Dylan Crews or Wyatt Langford — that is, if the Nationals cooperate and take Louisiana State ace Paul Skenes, as is expected?
Will the Tigers play a different game and opt for either of two prep outfielders who rank as top-five material — Walker Jenkins, or (less likely) Max Clark?
Will the x-factor candidate, catcher Kyle Teel from the University of Virginia, become a semi-shocker and win as new front-office chief Scott Harris’ first-ever pick heading the Tigers?
Figure, for now, on Crews or Langford. The Tigers are known to crave a college bat they can make part of a heavy-artillery lineup that in two years could sport Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Colt Keith, Parker Meadows, and either Crews or Langford.
While the bet throughout 2023 has been that Crews will go first overall Sunday, there are pre-draft twists that could bring the 2023 Golden Spikes winner (college baseball’s answer to the Heisman Trophy) straight into Detroit’s lap.
That has to do (a) with long-held projections the Nationals will opt for Skenes and his mound mastery and (b) the probability Pittsburgh, picking first, will sign a discounted deal with Langford. He could make an obvious business decision and take fewer dollars than the $9.72 million MLB has established as the ceiling for what this year’s first overall pick can be paid.
It gets complicated, but practical, as to why the Pirates might forgo either Crews and Skenes and settle on Langford, who for months has been a percentage bet to be the Tigers’ pick at No. 3.
How it might happen:
MLB sets the amount players in each round can be paid. MLB also decrees the total amount teams can spend on their 2023 draft picks.
How this affects Langford and Crews:
MLB is allowing the Tigers this year just over $8.3 million to sign Detroit’s pick at three.
The Pirates can play Detroit’s figure to their net advantage.
Say, they let Langford’s “adviser” — the Wasserman Group — know they will draft Langford first overall under one condition: that he accept less than the $9.72 they can optimally spend on the first pick.
The Pirates could say, “We’ll give you $8.6 million ($300,000 more than the Tigers can offer at No. 3) if you agree to sign with us at first overall.”
The Pirates, under that scenario, and with Langford’s assent, would bank more than $1 million they could in turn use to up the ante on their next pick, thus putting them into position to bait the hook and keep a highly regarded prep star from instead choosing college.
If this quite plausible scenario occurs — it is how the Pirates two years drafted Henry Davis first overall — Langford could easily be grabbed first. The Nationals, should forecasts hold, then would take Skenes at No. 2.
That would leave the Tigers staring at the certainty they could add Crews, a center fielder and astoundingly good right-handed hitter who would enrich the Tigers farm immeasurably, immediately.
The Tigers also can play the Pirates’ game at third overall and look elsewhere. And such a possibility cannot be dismissed.
The Tigers might negotiate with representatives for Jenkins, or Clark, or Teel — or any player they might truly be sold on — and discover they can sign that player at three overall for much less than the $8.3 million Detroit has been budgeted by MLB.
The player’s gain? He gets more cash than that player otherwise would get in being drafted deeper than third, with its corresponding lesser price.
In that event, the Tigers could decide that while a player like Crews is excellent, another player’s talents and upside (Jenkins? Clark? Teel?) are, to Detroit’s scouts, extremely strong and seductive. By passing on an expensive glamor prospect (Crews, represented by Scott Boras), the Tigers could agree, pre-draft, to a discounted offer with a player they otherwise believe can bring value on Crews’ level.
The saved cash then can be used in subsequent rounds. A prep blue-chipper with a verbal commitment can possibly be persuaded to forgo college and immediately sign with the Tigers.
That’s the thinking, anyway. Probably, for the Tigers, it’s impractical in that they would need to save a bundle, on a player they’re in love with, to be steered from Crews. But it often happens within the machinations of a MLB draft.
Overall pools are important, also, and the Tigers in 2023 have the second-most money to spend of any MLB team: $15.7 million, second only to the Pirates and their $16.1 million allowance.
Why do the Tigers get more draft cash than the Nationals, who are No. 3 at $14.5 million total?
Because the Tigers this year get a supplemental pick, at 37 overall, for which they are urged to spend no more than $2.3 million. Supplemental picks are awarded to teams with bad records, and either bad attendance or a bad market, and the 2023 Tigers qualify for something of a booby prize they’ll happily accept.
The Tigers, incidentally, still retain their second-round pick, at No. 45 overall, which carries a maximum retail price (in MLB’s eyes) of $1.9 million.
Three of the 2023 MLB Draft’s first 45 choices — not bad, especially when there’s no hard rule on how the Tigers spend the nearly $13 million their first three picks collectively are worth.
The Tigers are free to engage in creative math as long as they adhere to their overall limit of $15.7 million. Go over that figure by 0-5% and you pay a 75% tax. Go substantially over that figure and you pay tax as well as lose a future draft pick.
As to who the Tigers hunt with that 37th overall turn —— the very rough equivalent of a second first-round pick it’s tough to predict.
But perhaps not that difficult.
The expectation is the Tigers will aim high for a prep talent who has the certifiable look of a future big-leaguer.
That prep star, more than likely, would be a left-side infielder — the brand of super talented teen, at a premium position, who if he were to go to college would likely be an early first-round grab when he next becomes draft-eligible, which generally is after a college player’s junior season.
There are a handful of such infielders the Tigers might easily have targeted at 37.
Among them:
▶ Eric Bitonti: 6-4, 215, SS/3B, Aquinas High, Hesperia, California, LH hitter. You can imagine, with this body, the power potential. University of Oregon is his destination — if he doesn’t sign.
▶ Trent Caraway: 6-2, 205, SS/3B/OF, Junipero Serra Catholic High, Dana Point, California, RH hitter. He will be a marvelous third baseman, blessed with an arm good enough to make him a serious pitching prospect. Hitting, though, principally is why MLB teams are focused on changing his mind about Oregon State.
▶ Walker Martin: 6-2, 185, SS/2B, Eaton (Colorado) High, LH hitter: Another middle-infield prodigy with an all-important left-handed bat that looks as if it’s ready for professional baseball. He likely will break some baseball hearts at the University of Arkansas (verbal commitment).
▶ Cooper Pratt: 6-5, 205, SS/2B/3B, Magnolia Heights High, Oxford, Mississippi, RH batter: Truly a splendid profile here, with size, and plus skills to stick at shortstop. Not a shocker he will play for Ole Miss. Less of a shocker that he, this month, will get a luscious MLB offer.
▶ Adrian Santana: 5-11, 160, SS, Doral Academy Charter High, Miami, switch-hitter: On the smaller end compared with the big boys above, but Santana will play shortstop in the big leagues, which is where he is expected to migrate once he turns down that backyard commitment to the University of Miami.
▶ Raffaele Velazquez: 6-2, 215, C/1B/3B, Huntington Beach High, Garden Grove, California, LH batter: Along with shortstops, catchers are MLB shoppers’ dream prospects. Catchers who bat left-handed, with power, are even more alluring. Velazquez is promised to Arizona State. But his overall talent parcel is expected to fetch a MLB offer he can’t refuse.
The Tigers have three early picks at a point they have three new men running this year’s draft: Harris, and the two lieutenants he brought aboard to re-shape Detroit’s amateur scouting, Rob Metzler and Mark Conner.
The word “interesting” is a bit shop-worn in draft parlance. But what the Tigers do in a few days will be just that: interesting, very much so.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.