The next Bryce Harper. The next Chase Utley. The next Ty France.
Or, alternately: The next Donavan Tate. The next Jason Repko. The next Reid Brignac.
“Who?” you might be asking. We’re referring, of course, to the three prospects drafted by the Detroit Tigers on Sunday night: High school outfielder Max Clark (at No. 3 overall), high school shortstop Kevin McGonigle (at No. 37) and college second baseman Max Anderson (at No. 45).
We’d like to believe the newest members of the Tigers organization will turn out like those first comparables so often brought up during draft conversations. But there’s just as likely a chance they’ll end up among that latter list — prized prospects who couldn’t take the next step.
Hello, and welcome to the Draft Week Newsletter.
EVAN PETZOLD: Why swing adjustments in high school foreshadow Max Clark’s future with Detroit Tigers
That’s the paradox of big-league drafts, and few invoke it more than the MLB’s annual event. For all the excitement of a fresh start delivered by the draft, there’s also so much excruciating indeterminacy — Lions fans know what we’re talking about — as this week’s boons could be next year’s busts … and we might not know for half a decade or more. (Right, Matt Manning?)
And so we seek to conjur a smidgen of hope by invoking the names of greats gone by, comparing this year’s new faces to the players we’ve seen so many times before. (Shoot, we even went down the entire list of Tigers draft slots to find the best players from the past at each one.)
That’s why it can be, well, a little unnerving when MLB execs — like, say, a certain fresh-faced president of baseball operations — pass on a player we’ve spent the past couple of months watching highlights of <heyyy, Wyatt Langford> in hopes of a bigger payoff down the road. As the Freep’s Jeff Seidel put it on Sunday night, the pick of Clark — who has dominated the baseball-rich state of <checks notes> Indiana? — is a reliance on nuance over numbers. Faith over familiarity.
Or, as Our Man Seidel put it Monday morning — with the benefit of some time to breathe — a grand slam or a gut punch. Oh, it’s not like the Tigers are completely guessing — they’ve been scouting Clark, in particular, for years. As the Freep’s Evan Petzold notes, they got to know him last year, when he was hitting too many ground balls (and yet somehow still winning honors as Indiana’s best baseball player), and watched him rebuild his swing this spring. That kind of growth — as well as hundreds of thousands of followers on Instagram and TikTok — probably justify Clark’s statement that he takes his cues from Harper, the Philadelphia Phillies slugger. (Clown question, bro?)
There’s some science here, no doubt. But just in case, on the off chance that all the measurables the Tigers front office has in hand can be overwhelmed by the intangibles they’ve yet to foresee … well, we won’t blame you if you search for a couple of All-Star names to chant — BryceHarperChaseUtleyTyFrance! — to ward off the ghosts of draft busts past as you read up on these three, and the 18 more to come on Monday and Tuesday.
Heck, we’ll even help you out with some past precedents for Clark, who’s the 13th high school outfielder selected in the first three picks over 40 drafts.
In all, the previous 12 have combined for 9,735 big-league games featuring 1,564 home runs. That’s an average career of 811 games with 130 homers. (And it’s even more if we leave out the most recent prep outfielder selected, Arizona’s Druw Jones, selected last year and just making his pro debut this April.)
Of course, 2,671 of those games, and 630 of those homers (27.4% and 40.3% of the totals, respectively) belong to just one player, who came up a few times during Sunday’s draft: Hall of Famer Ken Griffey Jr., who went No. 1 overall to the Seattle Mariners in 1987. Yeah, he’s throwing off the math a bit.
So let’s go through the 11 prep outfielders drafted in the top three from 1984-2021, shall we?
2016: Mickey Moniak, Phillies — Sometimes a change of scenery makes all the difference, as this No. 1 pick looked like a bust in the Philly organization with less-than-stellar numbers in the minors over his first six seasons and a .486 OPS in three short big-league stints covering 66 games. But a 2022 trade to the Angels in his native California seemingly revitalized him, as Moniak has a .984 OPS in 38 games since he was called up from Triple-A in May.
2012: Byron Buxton, Twins — The Georgia native, taken at No. 2, made his major-league debut at 21 years, 178 days with three seasons as one of baseball’s best prospects under his belt. Over his first four seasons, however, he struggled in the majors, with a .672 OPS. It all clicked at age 25; since the start of the 2019 season, he has an .845 OPS (though injuries have limited him to just one season with 100 games played).
2009: Donavan Tate, Padres — Tate, a No. 3 pick, struggled with injuries in the minors, clearing 100 games played just once, and never even reaching Double-A in seven years. A two-sport star in high school, Tate retired from baseball in 2016 and spent 2017 as a backup QB at Arizona.
2003: Delmon Young, Rays — The younger brother of then-Tiger Dmitri Young raked in the minors after going No. 1, but had an up-and-down big-league career. His time in the bigs included a runner-up finish in 2007 AL Rookie of the Year voting, a top-10 AL MVP finish in 2010 and the ALCS MVP with the Tigers in 2012 — and also stints with five different franchises over 10 seasons.
1999: Josh Hamilton, Rays — Substance abuse issues nearly derailed the North Carolina native’s career, and cost him three full seasons of minor-league ball after going No. 1. He finally made his big-league debut at age 25, in 2007 with the Reds, and became a five-time All-Star, with an AL MVP nod in 2010 with the Texas Rangers. None of that helped the Rays much, but the talent was certainly there.
1998: Corey Patterson, Cubs — The Georgia native and No. 3 pick needed just 230 games in the minors, over two seasons, before making his MLB debut. Patterson was never a star — his best season came at age 23, when he posted an .839 OPS in 83 games with the Cubs — but his career lasted 12 seasons in the majors.
1994: Ben Grieve, Athletics — The son of a big-leaguer, the No. 2 pick went from a Texas high school to the majors in a little over three seasons, debuting at 21 in 1997 and winning AL Rookie of the Year the next season. He lasted only nine seasons in the majors, however, with his final four years decimated by injuries.
1990: Tony Clark, Tigers — An outfielder at his California high school and the No. 2 pick, Clark was shifted to first base by the Tigers in 1994 despite his athleticism — he played college basketball for Arizona and San Diego State while playing minor-league baseball in the summer — and debuted in 1995. Clark finished third in AL ROY voting the next season and made the AL All-Star squad in 2001. In all, Clark played 15 seasons, with nine seasons of at least 16 homers. (He went on to head the MLB Players Association, but that’s probably not something the Tigers were drafting on.)
1987: Ken Griffey Jr., Mariners— “The Kid.” Pure cool. All those homers. The backward hat. Yeah, this one worked out pretty well, with only a series of injuries leaving us to wonder “What if?” over the back half of his career.
1987: Mark Merchant, Pirates — The other one of our 11 not to make the majors, the Oviedo, Florida, product (just like Riley Greene) struggled once he reached Triple-A, with a career .730 OPS at that level following a .770 OPS in Single- and Double-A. (The No. 2 pick behind Griffey actually ended up in the same organization as him after a 1989 trade.)
1984: Shawn Abner, Mets — The former No. 1 pick moved slowly through the Mets system before a 1986 trade sent him to the Padres, for whom he debuted a few months after his 21st birthday. He was out of baseball by age 26 however, with a career .591 OPS in 392 games.
All together, we count one superstar — perhaps two, if we give Hamilton extra credit for the peak of his short career — six or seven solid careers and three outright busts.
Now, we could probably run through the list of infielders taken in picks 30-50, too. But, well, there’s some big-league Tigers calling out for attention, too.
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Three for all
There were games last week, after all! We’re still doing our best to forget that awful series against the awful Oakland A’s — just ask Our Man Seidel — but a trio of Tigers twirlers made that a little easier with their performances Saturday vs. Toronto: Matt Manning, Jason Foley and Alex Lange teamed up to throw the ninth no-hitter in franchise history (and the second in Comerica Park history). So how’d they do it? As Our Man Petzold noted, it started with Manning finding, then losing, then finding his breaking ball to go with his always-threatening fastball. Head here to find out why Manning, to paraphrase manager A.J. Hinch, sprayed “just enough for them to be uncomfortable.”
The dominance continued with Foley and Lange — but their performances, as well as a few Tigers defenders, reminded the Freep’s Shawn Windsor of that notion that no-hitters never come down to one player — head here to catch up with all the kudos he handed out — even if that player is Riley Greene, who brought some long-awaited magic to Comerica Park on Saturday as well.
3 to watch
While we’re talking kudos, summer has been good to these three Tigers:
MIGUEL CABRERA: The ancient Tiger has actually been sorta … good since the start of June, with an .834 OPS.
PARKER MEADOWS: But this Mud Hen has been even better over that span (.899 OPS). So why should we be patient, Scott Harris?
TARIK SKUBAL: In his first two starts since August, the lefty has allowed two hits over eight innings. Slacker.
2 to go
July has not been good to these two, though:
JAKE MARISNICK: The odd man out in a suddenly crowded outfield.
JONATHAN SCHOOP: Big salary wasn’t enough to save his roster spot due to struggles vs. lefties.
1 series to mark your calendar
It’s a short week for almost all the Tigers, as the four-day All-Star break means most of the roster gets a break before heading to Seattle for a three-game set beginning Friday. Of course, there’s one Tiger who’ll be getting to Seattle a little earlier: Right-hander Michael Lorenzen will be the Tigers’ lone All-Star rep in Tuesday’s Midsummer Classic. He certainly seemed in All-Star form against the Oakland A’s (but who doesn’t?); head here to find out from Our Man Petzold how Lorenzen tuned up for his All-Star appearance.
(Then again, all the Tigers were beaten to Seattle by a pair of prospects, as Colt Keith and Justyn-Henry Malloy suited up for the AL in the Futures Game there on Saturday night; we’ve got the report on how they fared here.)
Birthday wishes in the bullpen
A pair of lefty Tigers relievers have birthdays this week, as Chasen Shreve turns 33 on Wednesday and Tyler Alexander turns 29 on Friday. Shreve — who shares an alma mater (College of Southern Nevada) with Bryce Harper — is having a solid season, with 34 strikeouts and 10 walks over 33 innings; his 4.64 ERA is a little ugly, but he has been unlucky with a lot of balls dropping in for hits, considering his .319 batting average allowed on balls in play. Alexander, however, was super-unlucky last week, as he suffered a shoulder strain on July 2 and will miss the rest of the season. (Head here to find out from Our Man Petzold why Alexander was having arguably the best year of his career.)
TL;DR
Of course, there are still two more days of action from the Emerald City, as baseball continues its annual draft grind from the home of the NFL’s Seahawks (aka, the place where the Lions’ playoff hopes died in January). If you have better things to do — aka, anything — than watch 500 or so seemingly random names, you can head to <gasp!> freep.com, where we’ll have live updates and every Tigers pick right here. (And if you don’t have anything better to do, head here to get the details on how to watch the draft for yourself. Just don’t say we didn’t warn you.)
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford.