Never are baseball scouts sure what they’ve gone and done in a MLB Draft that’s infamous for breaking hearts and bringing on a future deluge of “why” questions from their bosses.
Except, perhaps, when you do sort of know you got it right.
The Tigers were feeling good – persuasively good – Tuesday evening after they wrapped up three days of perils and anxieties, spiced by a few thrills, in completing a 21-player haul in the 2023 MLB Draft.
They finished this year’s safari taking 10 players Tuesday: five pitchers (three from high schools), and five position players, which included three infielders, an outfielder, and a catcher from Canada.
“These three days involved a lot of footwork all year on the part of a lot of people,” said Mark Conner, the Tigers’ director of amateur scouting, ticking off a long list of scouts, analysts, development coaches, and medical people who had combined on the Tigers’ 21 selections.
“We’re excited. We think we put together a good class.”
Rob Metzler, the Tigers’ assistant general manager who runs amateur scouting, thought Tuesday’s harvest spanning rounds 11 through 20 was about as promising as 10-through-20 picks get.
“On the question of whether there’s a strategy on Day Three, it’s kind of a cliché, but we’re looking for the best talent available,” said Metzler, who was at the center of Tampa Bay’s drafts before he agreed last autumn to join new Tigers front-office chief Scott Harris.
“At this stage of the draft, you might have to be a little more creative in looking at a strategy.
“Day Three is really where they can shine,” he said, speaking of assorted Tigers staffers who have input on later-round risks that Metzler and Conner see as perhaps being safer bets to hit the big leagues. “They put us in position to find valuable players throughout the three days.
“We’re excited how we were able to execute.”
About those longshots that might not be so long:
They began Tuesday when the Tigers were happy to see University of Alabama shortstop Jim Jarvis unplucked as they began business in the draft’s 11th round.
“Solid defender with good actions,” Conner said of a left-handed batter who hit .273/.379/.418/.797 for the Crimson Tide, with strong walk (11%) and strikeout (12%) rates. “He’s got a legitimate chance to stay there (shortstop), long-term. He really controls the strike-zone and gives you quality at-bats.”
The Tigers’ next turn was a window into not only scouting, but into the interview and reading-of-the-heart process scouts also employ in deciding whether a player can be drafted and signed.
They took in the 12th round Andrew Dunford, 18, a 6-foot-7, 235-pound, right-handed pitcher from Houston County (Ga.) High. Dunford has a commitment to Mercer University in
Atlanta. But the Tigers weren’t playing a wish-and-hope game with Dunford, a pitcher they clearly intend to bring aboard.
“I would say, with Andrew, it was a really good job by our area scout, George Schaefer, who saw him early and identified him,” Conner said of a pitcher whose fastball runs into the 90s, and who has the size and upside MLB teams insist upon with prep pitchers. “We had a lot of eyes on him throughout the year. Later in the year we had him at our workouts and were able to spend some time around him.
“Honestly, he’s got a really good arm that we’re excited about.”
The delicate dance MLB clubs do with later-round picks, hoping to sweeten back-end bonuses as much as they can in a bid to keep prep players from opting for college, can backfire – when the player decides, after all, to honor his college commitment.
That can also lead teams to draft back-up plans in later rounds as protection against earlier prep picks sticking with their baseball scholarships.
Thus, it was interesting positioning Tuesday when the Tigers in fact took college-bound prep pitchers in the 17th and 20th rounds.
Bradley Stewart, a 6-3, 220-pound left-handed prodigy from Cooper City (Fla.) High, who has pledged to Eastern Kentucky, was a Tigers choice. Also, Johnathan Rogers, a right-hander from Tupelo (Miss.) High, who also is 6-3, 220, and who has said his college preference is Lousiana-Lafayette.
The Tigers chose similarly in the 18th round, snagging Ethan Farris, a third baseman from Cypress Woods (Texas) High, and a big boy indeed (6-5, 215) who will head to Texas State if the Tigers don’t lure him into pro ball.
How many of those picks Tuesday were hedges? How many of their drafted players will sign, including college juniors who have another shot if they choose ahead of next year’s draft?
“The reality of getting them all over the finish line might not happen,” Metzler said, although he implied the Tigers were feeling particularly good about their chances with Dunford. “We’ll have to see now what happens.
“I think the word we use is ‘hopeful’ that we get something over the finish line with Andrew. He’s a great kid, very interested in professional baseball.”
Metzler added: “I think, while we’re hopeful to sign all of our pitchers and players, it would be overly optimistic to think we’ll sign everybody in our draft class.”
If there was a Pick of True Intrigue during Tuesday’s final rounds, it was Brady Cerkownyk, 20, and a catcher from Toronto who was draft-eligible after spending the past year playing at Connors State, a junior college at Warner, Okla.
Cerkonwyk is 6-1, 190, and a right-handed batter who put together fairly awesome numbers at a school known for importing Canadian talent. He blasted 27 home runs in 55 games, with a .304 batting average, .555 on-base percentage, and .985 slugging average (1.540 OPS). Included in his 55-game exploits were 23 doubles.
He had walk/strikeout rates of 15% and 18%.
“He’s an exciting player,” Conner said. “To get a Juco player who can hit and stay behind the plate, with a plus arm and emerging power … The quality at-bats he put together this season were unbelievable.
The Tigers chose position help in the 13th and 14th rounds: Brett Callahan, an outfielder and left-handed batter from St. Joseph’s University in Philadelphia. He batted .342 in 55 games this spring, with .435/.613/1.048 supporting numbers, including 11 home runs.
“He’s a really good baseball player,” Conner said. “You can throw that term around a lot with him. He controls the strike-zone, with power coming, he’s a good defender. Just, continually, in every situation he knows how to play the game.”
In the 14th round, the Tigers snagged David Smith, a second baseman from the University of Connecticut, and a switch hitter who also stole 39 bases in 2023.
“He can really run,” Conner said of a man 5-11, 195, who can set up elsewhere in the infield, or outfield.
The Tigers took two college pitchers in the waning rounds, including Donye Evans, a 6-6, 220-pound, right-handed reliever from the University of North Carolina-Charlotte, and a transfer from Vanderbilt.
In 46 innings this spring, Evans struck out 64 while walking 28.
“A great young man, with a very live arm,” Conner said, “Low-to-mid 90s fastball, and can really spin a slider.”
Once their 20th-round bet had been made, on Johnathan Rogers, the Tigers were looking forward Tuesday evening to dinner, perhaps a few drinks – and a feeling that, as the old farm saying goes, the hay was in the barn.
They had settled last week into draft headquarters, at a vast Ilitch Holdings office, across from Comerica Park.
It was their virtual home for a long week – and scouting season − that finally reached completion Tuesday.
Now, for signing those players drafted during a three-day expedition – all before the scouts and staffers begin work on 2024.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and a retired Detroit News reporter.
Tigers’ Day 3 selections
11th round: Jim Jarvis, SS, University of Alabama, 5-10, 190, LH batter: Contact hitter and good defender who can draw a walk and perhaps reach a ceiling that might make him more than a back-up. He has brothers who have pro-ball DNA, while his dad played football at San Diego State.
12th round: Andrew Dunford, RH starter, Houston County (Ga.) High, 6-7, 235. “Extra-large frame with a slender build,” wrote Baseball America in its scouting report, “showing plenty of room to fill out physically.”
13th round: Brett Callahan, OF, St. Joseph’s University, 6-foot, 195, LH batter: four-year junior: 53 games this season, .342, .435, .613, 1.048, 11 HRs, 15 2Bs, 6 3Bs, 11% walks, 13% Ks.
14th round: David Smith, 2B, Connecticut, 5-11, 195, switch-hitter: 57 games, .304/.429/.464/.893 … multiple positions, 39 SBs, 15% walk rate, 18% K-rate
15th round: Brady Cerkownyk, C, Connors State (Warner, Okla.) junior college, 6-foot, 190, RH batter. Blasted 27 homers in 55 games for Connors State, and has the physical gifts to stick at catcher.
16th round: Donye Evans, University of North Carolina-Charlotte, RH reliever, 6-6, 220. Allowed only 33 hits in 46 innings in 2023.
17th round: Bradley Stewart, LH pitcher, Cooper City (Fla.) High, 6-3, 220: Has a 90-mph fastball – and also a commitment to Eastern Kentucky.
18th round: Ethan Farris, 3B, Cypress Woods (Texas) High, 6-5, 215, RH batter: Texas State commit, unless the Tigers can intervene. He could move to the outfield as a pro.
19th round: Blake Pivaroff, RH reliever, Arizona State, 6-foot, 200: 1.13 WHIP in 32.1 innings, with 25 hits, 11 walks, and 27 strikeouts.
20th round: Johnathan Rogers, RH starter, Tupelo (Miss.) High, 6-3, 220: A potential bonus here if the Tigers can get him to wave off his Louisiana-Lafayette commitment. His fastball at age 18: 94 mph
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