Detroit — Forty percent of the Tigers’ starting rotation is expected to be gone by Tuesday’s trade deadline. By baseball-rebuilding measures, it’s the right thing to do, dealing Michael Lorenzen and Eduardo Rodriguez. And maybe others. The buy-sell debate ended a couple of weeks ago, and the reckoning is here.
This is Scott Harris’ unofficial baptism as Tigers president of baseball operations, and his biggest chance yet to display his dealing acumen. Since arriving last September, he’s made modest, solid trades, not that he’s had a lot of chips to play. He earned excellent reviews for his first draft, landing a player at No. 3 that some viewed as the top prospect, high school outfielder Max Clark, already ranked second in the Tigers’ farm system.
Now he has chips of real value, but with contract contingencies. Lorenzen and Rodriguez are starting pitchers in their primes having good seasons. Contending teams crave starting pitching. Texas already anted up to get Max Scherzer from the Mets, and Justin Verlander could be on the move too, possibly back to the Astros.
No pressure at all, nah. These merely could be the most important negotiations of Harris’ budding executive career, and it’d be good to see the savvy. We think it’s there, based on his productive early moves. But this will be trickier than, say, trading reliever Joe Jimenez last December to Atlanta for Justyn-Henry Malloy, now one of the Tigers’ top prospects. Or Harris’ first deal, sending closer Gregory Soto to the Phillies for Matt Vierling and Nick Maton, a mixed return.
Indications are, the moves will be made. As a pending free agent, Lorenzen is a near-certainty to go. Rodriguez is close to that, unless the Tigers believe they can renegotiate his deal to avoid him opting out. AJ Hinch announced Sunday he was adjusting the rotation, with Rodriguez’s start bumped from Tuesday to Wednesday in Pittsburgh. Asked if it had anything to do with Tuesday’s 6 p.m. deadline, Hinch didn’t flinch.
“It has everything to do with it,” he said before the Tigers faced Miami. “We don’t want Eduardo dealing with the unknown. I have no idea what’s going to happen.”
It was Miggy Weekend in Miami as the city and thousands of Venezuelans celebrated Miguel Cabrera’s return, and he happily obliged. He collected two more RBIs Sunday as the Tigers fell to the Marlins 8-6, a burst of exuberance before the bubble likely pops.
Harris insisted a few weeks ago he’d be flexible if the Tigers somehow clawed higher in the division race. But at 47-59, in third place and 6½ games behind the Twins, the decision is easy. And now comes the juicy anticipation of deadline day. Harris could provide a much-needed boost to the Tigers’ middle-of-the-pack farm system (ranked around 14th), or he could be responsible for the franchise’s latest fruitless dumping of talented players.
Former GM Al Avila rarely maximized the return on deadline deals, one of the reasons the system bottomed out and Avila was fired. Avila also rarely enjoyed maximum leverage, as the Tigers almost always were dealing older talent with unappealing contract situations. He had to trade Verlander, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, Nick Castellanos and Ian Kinsler, and of the players and prospects the Tigers received, all that’s on the roster now are Jake Rogers and Alex Lange. No matter the circumstances, that’s disastrous.
Harris is in a similar situation, but with a clean slate. Rodriguez and Lorenzen could become free agents after the season, and teams aren’t particularly fond of paying a lot for rentals. Analysts think the Tigers could get one or two second-tier prospects for either pitcher, and any promising young bat helps.
The good news for Harris is, the Tigers have very few untouchables on the roster or in the system. The bad news is, the Tigers have very few untouchables on the roster or in the system.
We know the touchables, and any could be dealt: Rodriguez, Lorenzen, Lange, Jose Cisnero, Jason Foley, Tyler Holton. Javier Báez would be on the list too, if not for the four years and $148 million left on his contract. Others not likely available barring a gaudy offer: Matt Manning, Kerry Carpenter.
As near as I can tell, here are the only untouchables in the entire organization: Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Tarik Skubal. And probably the Tigers’ top two prospects, infielder Colt Keith and pitcher Jackson Jobe. That’s it. That’s the list.
The Tigers don’t have enough top talent to conduct a full-fledged fire sale, but it’s not an ashes sale either. More like a glowing embers sale.
It shouldn’t be too difficult to find a landing spot for Lorenzen, 31. He’s on a one-year, $8.5-million deal and having the best season of his career. He was the team’s lone All-Star and has lowered his ERA to 3.89. He’s the ideal one-year flip candidate.
It could be tougher to get fair value for Rodriguez, 30, despite his top-10 ERA of 2.95. He has three years and $49 million left on his contract but can opt out after this season. The $16.3-million salary over the final three seasons probably is below market value, likely pushing Rodriguez to free agency. I assume the only scenarios he wouldn’t opt out would be if he got hurt, or if Harris (or another GM) offered a lucrative new deal.
The seller’s market for starting pitchers was guaranteed to be robust after the Angels decided to keep Shohei Ohtani, then landed the White Sox’s Lucas Giolito. Of the top five or six starters considered available, the Tigers have two. And the list is dwindling, as the Rangers made another leap by acquiring the Cardinals’ Jordan Montgomery, a pending free agent. The Rangers still surrendered a healthy haul, including two top prospects.
Unfortunately, in Year 7 of the rebuild, Year 1 for Harris, this is what passes as excitement. Eventually, theoretically, the Tigers won’t be looking to unload near the deadline. Eventually, theoretically, they’ll be loading up for their own pennant run. The formula hasn’t changed. The best way to win the games then, is to win the deals now.
Bob.wojnowski@detroitnews.com
Twitter: @bobwojnowski