Tyler Holton looks to build on his outstanding Tigers debut

When Tyler Holton was claimed off waivers the Tigers last spring, he came with a reputation as a low-powered lefty junkballer. He found himself finishing the season as one of Detroit’s most trusted relievers. He’s spent most of his pro career as a swingman and took on the mantle of long relief during his rookie season, but did so with rare effectiveness, eventually earning more high leverage work as the season progressed. In 53 games, he tossed 85.1 innings and finished the year with a 2.11 ERA and 3.56 FIP.

Holton’s ascent from a largely unknown camp body last spring to a roster lock this spring is a fun storyline and a frequently cited corollary to the mantra “in Fetter we trust.” Relievers are often finicky from year to year, though, and it would be a mistake to take Holton for granted as a multi-inning force of nature. Whether the changes he and the Tigers’ pitching staff implemented in 2023 were meaningful enough to expect continued excellence is a question worth exploring.

To do that, let’s disassemble the anatomy of Holton’s pitching approach.

The league average pitcher is throwing harder than ever before. I’d go so far as to call it a defining characteristic of the current era of baseball. Holton subverts that trend. He has two fastball shapes – a four seamer that averages 91.6mph and a sinker that averages 91.2 mph. That’s about three miles per hour less than the major league average reliever.

Detroit, was unperturbed by Holton’s low-powered approach. He’s a seam-shifter, which has been common thread among numerous pitchers the Tigers have helped turn a new leaf under Chris Fetter’s guidance. His four seamer and sinker have similar spin-based expected movement, but deviate in opposite directions in observed movement. That specific movement profile is driven by efficient spin; both fastball shapes were measured in the 90% active spin range.

Holton doesn’t pack the high octane stuff needed to be a big time strikeout pitcher, so instead, Detroit helped him craft distinct matchup-based strategies based on his deep mix of pitches. He became a premium contact pitcher and found success by all but eliminating hard contact. Based on a season’s worth of data, Holton’s success is more than a mirage, but the pedestrian strikeout totals say premium command will again be required in 2024 if he’s going to avoid a sophomore slump.

The D-Backs didn’t make much use of Holton’s sinker, but the Tigers made it a feature of his approach against same-handed hitters. In 57 plate appearances that ended with a sinker, fellow lefties hit just .167/.210/.185. Hitters just couldn’t put good swings on the pitch. The average exit velocity in 49 batted ball events was a measly 81.3 mph. None of the 197 pitchers who closed out at least 50 plate appearances with a sinker allowed less hard contact than Holton, at just 18.4 percent.

Another feature of his revamped approach against lefties was a brand new slider. He implemented it in favor of the curveball that had been a staple of his pitch mix in years prior. Somehow, it produced even better results than his sinker. In 38 plate appearances that ended with a slider, opponents slashed .135/.157/.189.

Again, literally no one in the league was better at suppressing quality contact with slider than Holton. The 23 batted ball events against the pitch resulted in a 74.8 mph exit velocity. Among the 350 pitchers who ended at least 25 plate appearances with a slider, Holton led the pack with just 8.4 percent hard contact allowed. No one else came in under the 10 percent mark. As a cherry on top, he also drew a 37.8 percent whiff rate with the pitch, which ranked among the top third of the same sample of pitchers.

Holton’s sinker and slider were tremendously effective pitches last year, but they were part of a larger game plan. To that point, Holton threw 762 pitches against right-handed hitters. Of those, the sinker and slider accounted for ten.

When facing righties, Holton threw four seamers, changeups, and cutters in equal measure. The cutter was by far the least effective pitch in his arsenal. Batted ball events against the cutter resulted in a .241 batting average and .426 slugging with an average exit velocity of 91.7 mph. The qualified hitter who most closely resembles the aggregate performance against Holton’s cutter is Spencer Torkelson, which isn’t a great sign for the pitch’s effectiveness.

The changeup is his swing and miss pitch against righties. He gets punished for the occasional slip – he gave up five dongs on cambios – but it also draws whiffs on a full third of swings. Holton uses both the slider and the changeup liberally outside of the zone. Accordingly, hitters offered on 32.7 percent of pitches outside the zone, which is notably higher than the league wide 28.8 percent rate.

So, while Holton is not a big time strikeout pitcher, he does do just fine in that regard. It’s just not his goal to try and strike everyone out. He may have a robust O-Swing figure on a rate basis, but he pounds the zone with both his fastballs and his cutter, doesn’t issue many walks, and forces hitters to try and put the ball in play. Still, in 2023, the lefty struck out 22.8 percent of hitters. 23.6 percent strikeout rate is the league average for relievers, so Holton was pretty close to league average in strikeouts, while allowing very little hard contact and minimal walks. That’s a pretty good recipe for success.

It’s just awfully difficult to say that he’s a true talent 2.00 ERA player after 85 ¹⁄₃ innings of success. Relievers that rely on controlling contact walk a career-long tightrope. Detroit has some of the best game planning staff in the league and Holton’s success is based on tangible and intelligent changes to the way he plays. However, expectations over the long-term probably need to be moderated. It’s really difficult to do what he did in 2023 year after year.

It’s impossible to overlook Holton’s 3.56 FIP. Though very respectable, is a far cry from the shining 2.11 ERA it accompanies. It’s a common misconception that FIP represents what a pitcher’s ERA “should have been.” Instead, it is designed as an ERA predictor based on a given pitcher’s peripherals by assigning credit or blame weighted toward the events a pitcher controls without defenders being involved. Walks, strikeouts, and home runs. It tends to be unkind to pitchers who lack high end strikeout rates because future performance so often tracks neatly with a pitcher’s strikeout rate. In this case, the delta between those two figures is representative of his pretty average strikeout rate.

There were some whispers of trade interest in Holton at last season’s deadline, and it will be no surprise if that happens again this year. The highest caliber teams always circle like vultures around controllable bullpen talent in hopes of prying someone loose at a low price. Honestly, the Tigers have performed so much bullpen alchemy that they may be more willing to part with him if a fair deal presents itself.

Going into next season, expectations should be scaled to viewing Holton as a good and versatile long reliever who can also handle leverage situations when required. He probably isn’t going to be one of the most valuable relievers in the game again, but he should still be very good. As a player acquired for free, that’s still an exceptional outcome. It would be a real shame for fans to set expectations too high and feel let down if things are less than perfect in 2024.