When the Detroit Tigers signed veteran infielder Gio Urshela to a one-year deal during the second week of spring training, it looked like the Opening Day position player group was set. With Colt Keith signed to a long-term contract, third base was really the only position in open competition. The addition of Urshela made the group of Matt Vierling, Andy Ibáñez, and Zach McKinstry a bit redundant defensively, but there wasn’t much obvious competition brewing for the Tigers’ bench either.
As we come to the final week of Spring Training, the situation looks a little different. Other than Urshela, who got a late start, the rest of those players are all having good spring camps. Meanwhile, upstarts Ryan Kreidler and Eddys Leonard have raked as well, pushing them into the conversation.
None of these players is so distinguished from the others. They don’t profile as everyday regulars, but they all have their uses. So without one of them really having a huge breakout season, the Tigers are likely to deploy them based as much on their team control as for any other reason.
Urshela’s $1.5M deal is small enough that the Tigers could cut him, but that wouldn’t make a whole lot of sense right now. So we’ll consider him basically a lock to go north to Detroit since he can’t be sent down. Leonard has already been optioned to minor league camp, so I wouldn’t expect to see him up for a while. He’s been on fire going back to August of last year, but he’s still 23, only has 40 games at the Triple-A level, and has an option remaining.
That last feature is crucial.
Per FanGraphs, Matt Vierling has one option left, as does Andy Ibáñez and Ryan Kreidler. Zach McKinstry is out of options, and as the only left-handed hitter in the group, he seems highly likely to be on the Opening Day roster. McKinstry currently has 10 walks to five strikeouts this spring with a .167 isolated power mark. It’s spring training, so this doesn’t mean he’s on the verge of a huge season, but without an option and as the only left-handed hitter of this group, all he needed to do was have a solid camp and so far he’s done so.
So that brings us to Vierling, Ibáñez, and Kreidler for the final two spots on the roster.
The Tigers have a nice young outfield group with the potential to be very good. The starting rotation looks to have both quality and unusual depth, while the bullpen lacks a stud closer type but is pretty well set with good relievers. Jake Rogers and Carson Kelly, with Dillon Dingler on call in Toledo, is a solid catching group. The right side of the Tigers infield isn’t proven, but you’ve got young top prospect sluggers in Spencer Torkelson and Colt Keith to play basically everyday. Shortstop and third base are the real question marks.
Prospect Jace Jung may be able to weigh in at third base before too much longer, and Leonard may be helpful if one of the part-time players struggles, but the Tigers only have one of these bench options who is a bona fide shortstop. Ibáñez is a solid defender at second and third base, and the same true of McKinstry. Vierling is a decent third baseman and can play acceptably well anywhere in the outfield, including center field on a short term basis. Vierling and Ibáñez have also swung a hot bat this spring, but only Ryan Kreidler grades out as a plus shortstop. That makes his hot start with the bat this spring a lot more interesting.
Kreidler is the only backup plan at SS
The Tigers are going to play Javier Báez everyday for at least a few months. so it’s not like Kreidler is going to be taking over the job right away if the veteran struggles. His place as the only other true shortstop on the 40-man roster gives him a lot of added value, but that value can always be stashed in Toledo in case of injury or a breaking point with Báez. Of course, Kreidler is also plenty capable of playing good defense just about anywhere on the field other than center field or catcher, so as bench player he provides more defensively than any of the others we’re discussing.
The problem is that after his breakout season in 2021 as a prospect at Double-A, Kreidler hasn’t been able to take the next step with the bat. It’s been an encouraging start this spring, but he still strikes out quite a bit without getting to his power potential. If things have really changed, it’s not clear yet.
Even so, ZiPS projections say Kreidler’s defense could make him a 1.0-1.5 fWAR player per 100 games. His Statcast numbers are really small samples, but they suggest that ZiPS may even be underselling his defense a little bit.
Jerry Mackinem of Tigers Minor League Report summed it up succinctly in a recent post.
For all to see. This is Ryan Kreidler’s OAA by position and attempts. Assuming this is really where he would be, he would have been a +39 OAA last year in the same number of attempts as Báez which is 3.9 fWAR.
If you didn’t already know, he is a wizard with the glove! https://t.co/rSAXhyTARx
— JerryMackinem (@OPSenheimer) March 17, 2024
Those Outs Above Average (OAA) marks would make Kreidler the best defensive shortstop in baseball. I’m fairly confident that’s not actually the case. The point is just that’s he’s objectively a plus defender.
Whatever you want to take away from spring training offensive performances, where Kreidler isn’t starting much against major league starting pitchers, the ZiPS projection system also forecasts that Kreidler will even outhit Javy Báez, if only by a hair. The difference in projections is 81 wRC+ for Kreidler, 78 wRC+ for Báez, so there’s nothing to write home about either way, but if the latter can’t find some modicum of his old power production, there’s really nothing to distinguish them other than that Kreidler doesn’t have Báez’s track record and can be optioned.
So, the Báez issues make Kreidler a very necessary player on the 40-man roster. If the veteran can’t get it going, the Tigers are going to have to pinch-hit for him more when he plays, and try something else at least on a part-time basis. The only something else they have at shortstop is Ryan Kreidler.
Now, does that mean Kreidler will beat out one of Vierling or Ibáñez to Triple-A Toledo to start the year? Hard to say.
Can Kreidler bump Vierling or Ibáñez?
Arguably, Kreidler needs to hit everyday after two injury plagued seasons. He hasn’t topped 351 plate appearances in either 2022 or 2023. Playing him in Toledo to start the year and getting him everyday plate appearances might be more useful to the Tigers early in the season than starting him at third base once or twice a week in place of Vierling, or Ibáñez.
There are some good points on the side of taking Kreidler north as well. The Tigers need to get out to a good start, and riding the hot hands early on might prove crucial. With Vierling and Ibáñez both off to a good start, Kreidler really could use some big games over the final week of Grapefruit League play to finish making his case offensively, but his defense might be valuable enough on its own.
The Tigers’ starting infield projects to be pretty underwhelming defensively. Kreidler is probably the only one who could be expected to play above average third base and help counter a sub-par pair of infielders in Torkelson and Keith on the other side of the infield. That may well be more valuable than anything the other potential Tigers’ depth infielders do with the bat. For that reason alone it might be worth having him available if only as a late game defensive substitution.
The Tigers don’t have to make any final decisions on this group of players right now. The roster is going to evolve over the course of the season. Factors from Báez’s issues to the rise of prospects Jace Jung and Eddys Leonard could all come to bear on the left side of the infield as the season progresses. So whoever goes north on Opening Day, it’s all very subject to change until the club develops an everyday option at third base.
We can bet that Urshela and McKinstry will be on the Opening Day roster. Vierling and Ibáñez might get the early nod for offensive reasons. But Ryan Kreidler has a crucial skill that puts him above the rest in importance as the 2024 season gets underway. If he’s not up to start the year, expect him to get his chances along the way.