Well over a month has gone by since the last time we checked in with a sampler of prospects who make up the top of the 2024 MLB draft. With the draft just two days away, it’s time to ramp up our coverage. We’ll have a final draft previews running this weekend.
The Detroit Tigers hold the eleventh pick in the draft, which means they’ll be in position to scoop up a one of the second-tier talents in this class crammed full of college bats. Alternatively, with a deep board of players available with similar first-round value, they could justifiably opt to reach a little on a player with a lower price tag if they plan to splurge on high schoolers up and down the draft, as they did last year. Overall this draft class is regarded as somewhat mediocre in the first round beyond the top couple of guys.
In a prior installment of our 2024 draft coverage series, we outlined in detail the factors at play that could determine who the Tigers target and where. You can check that out here. Then, in our second article, we took a look at another five prospects who ought to be on your radar. Here, we’ll take a look at six more players — four of whom have the potential to be selected with the Tigers’ first pick along with a few sleepers candidates for the second and third rounds — before switching gears and looking at individual players in greater detail going forward.
For just the second time since 2017, the Tigers won’t be in position to draw one of the top players in the class, which means no Jac Caglione or Travis Bazzana talk here. Instead, Scott Harris and his crew will have to flex their scouting muscle and make a less obvious pick from a broader pool of potentially enticing players. Scouting details on specific players mentioned below will be pulled from a composite of MLB Pipeline, FanGraphs, Future Stars Series, and Prospects Live.
We’ll lead with the assumption that without a top pick, the Tigers options are fairly wide open here. We only have one Rob Metzler-Mark Conner led draft to go by, but it seems pretty reasonable to expect that unless they really fall in love with a player right in their projected range, they’ll look instead for value in an underslot deal and once again draft prep players throughout the draft and then work to make as many of them fit into their bonus pool as possible. This is pretty sound strategy, in our view.
We have more on the way, but here’s a selection of a first round options and a pair of players I like in the second round.
OF Carson Benge, Oklahoma State
Benge has swiftly become one of my favorite players who could be available to the Tigers in the first round. He plays both ways for Oklahoma State and has gotten draftable grades as a pitcher, but his upside as a position player is much higher and he’ll be selected as a right fielder, where his arm plays well and his bat can carry the load.
With present strength and athleticism, Benge does a little bit of everything. He doesn’t quite have the explosiveness that the phrase “power/speed guy” invokes, but with an uppercut swing that allows him to access the strength in his core and wrists, scouts are comfortable projecting him as a dangerous hitter as a pro. He’s a slightly smaller guy, listed at 6’1”, so there will naturally be questions about the magnitude of his raw power, but he has plenty to spare. Benge is one of the names tossed around when people start talking about hitting metrics, particularly exit velocity, and he’s been connected with the draft-savvy Orioles as a result.
Excellent presence at the plate enhances his value as a hitter, and FSS cites ‘chase rates south of 20 percent and contact rates near 80 percent.’ That means that not only does Benge make the right swing choices, he usually can make good on them too. Whether that holds up against pitchers who can consistently drop a breaking ball into the bottom of the zone for a strike in the high minors is a different question, but the indicators are positive.
On defense, Benge plays right field. If a team wanted to try him at center, there’s a possibility he could make it work. His offensive upside is well above average for a player up the middle and his speed, while unremarkable, straddles the fence between average and above average. The easier path to big league playing time would be to leave him in right, where he has the upside to be pretty decent defensively, with the possibility to play center in a pinch.
Athletic, multi-faceted and intelligent at the plate — these are the ingredients for a Harris guy. What makes it even sweeter is that there’s a decent chance the Tigers could probably save a little money on his signing bonus, enabling them to scoop up the young players they like with greater freedom in the middle rounds. Unless someone surprising drops to the Tigers’ pick, I like the thought of Benge wearing the D quite a lot.
Current Draft Stock: Middle of the first round, holding steady
LHP Cam Caminiti
A number of mock drafts have made a match between the Tigers and 17-year-old Cam Caminiti, or at very least see him as a player of interest. An LSU commit from Arizona, Caminiti has risen from a fringe first rounder in the preseason to perhaps the top lefty in the draft and a good bet to go in the first half of the round. He reclassified from next year’s class and won’t turn 18 until after the draft. Teams with a model-driven draft strategy aren’t as obsessed with youth as they were, say, five years ago, but there will be a few who are excited by the opportunity to get him into a pro developmental system so early.
Caminiti gets an easy starter’s projection. He packs four pitches and looks like he could add good weight quickly after starting on a pro strength and conditioning regimen. He throws a wicked fastball from the left side and his arsenal of secondary pitches is a pretty standard mix of slider, curve, and changeup, with the slider being be the best of the three. Aside from his height, a pedestrian 6’2”, it’s tough to dream up a better foundation for a high school pitching prospect.
Of course, all eyes turn to the heater when a lefty throws as hard as Caminiti can. His fastball sits in the mid 90s with consistency and reaches 98 miles per hour with riding life at both velocity bands. It’s not inconceivable that his top end will continue creeping toward 100mph as he matures. Even if he never pops the magic number, he’s able to turn to the fastball at the top of the zone as a swing and miss pitch or terrorize same-sided hitters inside with it.
Exact opinions about his secondary pitches waver from source to source, there’s probably at least two good ones in there. In a recent interview with draftnick Joe Boyle, Caminiti explained that he feels most comfortable pitching with the slider and changeup. He’s praised for feel for the cambio, though it could stand to see more use. The slider and curve are distinct pitches but get a little mushy at times. He has commendable pitch shapes, but his feel for spin is lacking and neither breaking ball is consistently good for him yet.
These concerns are nothing overly dramatic for pitcher so young. Mechanical issues, which are a much bigger red flag for high school hurlers, are nowhere to be found here. He just needs reps and an organization that can build him up and help him identify and isolate the roots of his inconsistency. Normal stuff for any young pitcher, and he’s already far ahead of the curve for his age.
A lefty with velocity, projection, and decent feel for three secondary pitches is always appealing, but the fact that neither breaking ball really pops may keep him out of the top ten picks and make him available to the Tigers. It may also be the reason to pass and focus on a bat.
Current Draft Stock: Early to middle first round, rising slightly
OF James Tibbs III, Florida State
Among the players who are anticipated for the Tigers to have available to them at eleventh overall, Tibbs is perhaps closest to a finished product. He was an immediate producer for Florida State as a freshman and has done nothing but rake in the years since. Success in the Cape Cod league, a summer league that uses wooden bats, only adds to the idea that he’s ready for swift movement through the minor leagues. He hit .303/.390/.472 there last summer despite the Cape being a notoriously pitching friendly environment.
As his bat goes, so goes Tibbs. His value is predicated almost entirely on his relentless hitting ability. Some scouts like his power potential better than others, and he has the juice to hit plenty of bombs in the bigs. The issue is whether he has enough feel to get to all his power.
Few and far between are the college hitters who hold up better against premium velocity. Tibbs simply doesn’t get backed off or jammed on fastballs and doesn’t hesitate to turn a mistake into mashed potatoes. There has been a track record of difficulty picking up on breaking balls, and opinions vary as to where he’s at these days. His swing decisions are generally positive and his walk and strikeout rates have been moving in the right directions.
He’ll need to keep that up at the next level because his defensive value as a below-average left fielder is low, and would be even lower with an eventual move to first base. He’s not a poor athlete, per se, he just doesn’t get underway quickly and lacks the pure arm strength to make it work at the hot corner. Players in this mold are almost never trend in a positive direction, so all the pressure will be on his bat. Fortunately, it’s as trustworthy a bat as there is out there in this class.
Honestly, I don’t care much for the fit here. Were the Tigers picking a little later, I would be more open to Tibbs, who will probably go on to have a fine pro career. As I see it, though, his upside is capped by limited defensive value and lack of plus-plus power or plate discipline. I’d rather see the team go for a better all around player than sell out on value for present polish in a bat-first player. Recent mock drafts have the Pirates showing interest and trying to cut an underslot deal with Tibbs, but he could easily fall to the Tigers should they be interested in a short timetable for a bat-only player. Let’s hope they aren’t interested in that.
Current Draft Stock: Middle of the first round, holding steady
Second round possibilities
LHP Josh Hartle, Wake Forest
Hartle was a premium lefty in the 2021 draft who gained national repute for his pitching intellect and smooth operation. He was expected to be a first round pick after passing up big money to go to Wake Forest, who has a reputation for having one of the best pitching labs in college baseball. Instead, he’s struggled in two of his three college seasons and his value has cratered. As a possible fit with the Tigers’ organization, he seems like a natural post-hype sleeper pick, particularly should he fall to the third round.
As an immediate member of the starting rotation as a freshman, and met with middling results with an ERA that approached six and less than a strikeout per inning. Hartle righted the ship last year and was downright lethal as a sophomore; he whiffed 140 hitters in just over 100 innings pitched and many draft analysts had him as an early first rounder entering the draft cycle. Things haven’t gone to plan this year, unfortunately. Hartle’s getting slapped around by college hitters again and his draft stock is dropping like a stone. He’s leaving pitches over the middle of the plate — unthinkable for him in seasons prior — and his stuff isn’t breaking as much as it used to.
Even at his best, the Deacs’ lefty is a bit low-powered, with a fastball that sits in the low 90s and hasn’t added much velocity since his high school days. What makes Hartle enticing is a quiver full of bendy stuff, which can include as many as six pitches: two fastball shapes, a slider, curveball, cutter, and changeup. At times, he has exhibited incredible feel for pitching to make the complex mix work wonders and that sophomore season was littered with impressive showings when it was all working.
He’s still likely to be popped early by a team who kept the faith, but he’ll be entering the professional ranks as less of a swift mover than expected.
At this point, I feel comfortable saying that Gabe Ribas has assembled one of the better pitching development systems in the game. I’d expect that if Hartle came to Detroit, they’d sink their teeth into rehabbing his value by pairing him down to four pitches for the time being, reestablishing fastball command and restoring the cutter to its former self. He’s not seen as the prize that he once was, but if things go right, Hartle could be a weak contact machine.
Current Draft Stock: Late second to third round, falling
RHP Dax Whitney, Blackfoot (ID)
The Tigers aggressively chased high school talent in all phases of the draft last year, and there’s no reason to believe that will change this year. If that’s true, I love the potential fit with Idaho high schooler Dax Whitney in the third round or so. He’s a late riser who is finding himself in the top 100 of draft boards thanks to an ideal body, intriguing fastball, and a sweeperish breaking ball with good spin numbers.
Over the past two years, Whitney has added approximately eight ticks to his fastball, and it lives in the low-to-mid 90s these days. He produces that velocity with a simple motion that features just a little violence at the end and is pretty clean relative to his age and background as position player. He generates rise on the pitch, which has good spin numbers and can be featured at the top of the zone. Carrying just 190 pounds on his 6’4” body, he has plenty of room for extra muscle.
When it comes to secondary pitches, MLB Pipeline says he has two breaking balls, whereas FSS says he’s packing a big slider with variable movement. If it’s two pitches, they live in a very similar upper-70’s velocity band and display good spin. He also throws a changeup that flashes at times, but he’ll need to put in a lot of work to make it an out pitch. That’s not unexpected, and a big part of why he’d be available outside the top 50 picks.
I would love to know what the Tigers pitching development teams would do if they were able to get their hands on Whitney. With a few years in a pro strength and conditioning system, he’ll be touching 98 mph at times, plenty enough to make the fastball a serious weapon up and inside. My guess is that at the first order of business is to sharpen up his breaking ball into a single consistent shape and add either a low-80s cutter if he winds up with a sweeper or a split change if it’s more of a harder gyro slider.
It’ll be a slow burn, but the best organizations are able to draft players like Whitney in the third to fifth round range and turn them into staples of the rotation.
Current Draft Stock: Unclear, early day two, rising