Saturday’s victory over the Toronto Blue Jays continued a very good run for the Detroit Tigers in July. They’re now a game below .500 and just five games out of a wild card spot with 63 games to play. We should be feeling pretty good. Instead, Reese Olson came out of the game after two innings with what is reported as right shoulder soreness. That could be all sorts of issues from minor inflammation to a major injury that ends his season. Either way, it presents a real problem for the organization right now.
Casey Mize is already on the injured list with a hamstring strain and there’s no word on when he might start a rehabilitation assignment. Matt Manning, the obvious choice for a call-up, hit the Triple-A injured list with a lat strain on Friday. Kenta Maeda is pitching terribly and there’s nothing to suggest he could return to the rotation. So with Olson out, the Tigers are in a really bad spot. It’s Tarik Skubal, Jack Flaherty, who appears bound to be traded in the next 10 days, and rookie Keider Montero, who is still just finding his sea legs at the major league level.
Let’s try and find some solutions. As always, you have to start with the 40-man roster.
Ok, we checked. There’s nothing on the 40-man roster to help them here. We’re cooked. End of article.
In seriousness, there is no plug and play option left on the 40-man roster. The Tigers could try one of Tyler Holton, Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, or—shudders—Joey Wentz, but they aren’t starting pitchers anymore and at least in the short term couldn’t do much more than give the Tigers some bulk outings where they try to go three or four innings or so, get through the top of an opponent’s order twice, and then turn it over to the rest of the bullpen. That’s not at all appealing, because you’re weakening an already mediocre bullpen only to get a mediocre starting pitcher on the mound anyway.
If the Tigers believe Mize may return soon, and/or that Reese Olson’s injury isn’t too serious, that’s probably the way they’ll handle this. But even then, the specter of trading Flaherty and leaving this rotation barren apart from arguably the best starting pitcher in the game is a tough look. Especially with the team playing this well. Running out a bunch of long relievers the next few weeks and taking a beating is going to be a tough look after the current run they’re on.
So let’s go further. The Tigers have numerous guys who could be designated for assignment without much lost. It’s also possible that Kerry Carpenter might be placed on the 60-day injured list so they can add whoever they want in the short term, knowing they’re likely to trade a player or two away in the very near future.
Jackson Jobe
Let’s go directly to the obvious best option. Top prospect RHP Jackson Jobe is the best pitching prospect in baseball, has better stuff than anyone on the Tigers staff other than Skubal and maybe Flaherty already, and has at least major league average command with still 10 days remaining until he turns 22 years old. Six more no-hit innings on Saturday were no surprise, and neither was the ease with which Jobe carved through the Binghamton Rumble Ponies lineup. Anyone who says he’s not ready to handle MLB yet isn’t watching him pitch. If Jake Rogers or Carson Kelly set up down the middle and call the game, and Jobe throws his stuff with confidence, he’s going to do just fine.
The question is whether this is the right thing for his development. That has to take some precedence. While Jobe looks outstanding, and the stuff and command are major league ready, his mental and emotional readiness is more difficult to assess. Since breaking out last year, Jobe’s only competition has been with himself. He’s very rarely in trouble in an outing. There’s no steady flow of traffic, few big pitches that have to be made. He’s too good to be getting experience dealing with any significant adversity from his competition, because they rarely even square up the baseball with authority against him. This begs for a call-up to Triple-A Toledo, as it’s become almost tiresome watching Jobe easily dispatch Double-A lineups. But the idea of calling him up to the major leagues is a little trickier.
For now, perhaps the smart thing to do with Jobe is to advance him to Toledo and see how it goes. If he’s still cruising for the most part, then he’s not going to learn anything of note in the minor leagues anymore, and it’s time to call him up. Personally, it’s a foregone conclusion that Jobe is going to have no trouble at Triple-A either. Also glaring at me is the fact that Jobe and Olson’s schedules are in sync, and so Jobe could slot right in on regular rest.
Ultimately, it’s on the Tigers to know best whether a little exposure to Triple-A hitters would be good for him, or just a waste of innings when the big league club could really use his help. You don’t want him to come up, get shelled a couple of times, and potentially lose confidence, but that seems highly unlikely for one, and secondly, he has to get hit to improve the only part of his game that hasn’t been tested. It has to happen eventually, so why not now?
In the end, this comes down to the severity of the other starters’ injuries. If the Tigers think two of Mize, Manning, Olson won’t be out long? Then adding Jobe to the 40-man might not be the move until September when they can give him a taste of major league hitters to take into the offseason. But with Flaherty on the trading block, there’s a pretty good chance they need a starting pitcher the rest of the way, and Jobe’s natural innings progression should take him to around 110-115 innings after throwing 80 last year. So far this season, Jobe has 35 2⁄3 innings thrown. That would give Jobe say, 12 or 13 starts at roughly six innings apiece, right on track to step into the rotation and finish out the season.
We’ll see what the Tigers think, but again the likely duration of these injuries to the rotation probably has something to say about whether the organization decides to bring up their ace prospect right now or not.
Finally, there may be a part of you reading this that is thinking, “oh this is hype, he can’t be this good.”
That’s just your defenses against hope and disappointment talking. Watch the player. Jackson Jobe is a monster already.
Ty Madden and Brant Hurter
Going into the season, these two prospects, along with Keider Montero, seemed likely to provide the Tigers with at least one good starting option. So far, only Montero has seized the opportunity, while the right-handed, hard-throwing Madden, and the command and control lefty, Hurter, who has a good slider and a solid sinker/changeup combo as his weapons, have both struggled mightily with the Toledo Mud Hens.
Of course, while he was pitching better than either much of the year and struggling with the automated strike zone as much as with hitters, Montero wasn’t producing good numbers either. Working with the Tigers, with one of the best pitching coaching staffs in the game, two good defensive catchers with experience, and a pretty good defensive outfield—not to mention a better park for a fly ball pitcher like Montero in home games—has obviously been good for him. However, he still hasn’t put it together the way Reese Olson did under similar circumstances last year.
Things are likely to go worse for Madden and Hurter. Madden can dial his fourseam fastball up to 98-99 mph, and he has a very good slider. That combination makes him tough on right-handed hitters. However, despite having a cutter, a curveball, and then a splitter developed this season, Madden is still struggling badly and giving up a ton of home runs. If it was just the walks that were a problem, you could see human umps, major league catching and game planning all helping them overcome it. The home runs are probably partly the result of the added pressure to throw strikes, but the fact remains that Madden is getting shelled regularly out there right now.
Overall, Madden has an 8.43 ERA and a 6.48 FIP over 47 innings. Coming off a good start with the Double-A SeaWolves where he had a 2.55 ERA with outstanding strikeout, walk, and home run rates, it’s been a real struggle at Triple-A. The splitter which helped him master left-handed hitting finally at the Double-A level, hasn’t been consistent at all in Toledo.
Looking through Madden’s splits, there’s no comfort to be found there either. After struggling with lefties for so long, now it’s right-handed hitters crushing him this season. The have a .965 OPS against Madden, while lefties have just a .713 OPS. However, part of the reason lefties aren’t hitting him is because he’s walking around 15 percent of them.
So, Madden isn’t ready. He is older than Montero and due to be added to the 40-man roster this offseason, but he looks more and more like a reliever. Possibly a really good one, but nonetheless, there’s little to suggest he could start at the major league level right now. Considering he’s stagnated a bit as a prospect the past year and a half, and is still working to refine the split-changeup, working with Chris Fetter, Robin Lund, and Juan Nieves would be good for him. Maybe they try it, but it’s very hard to believe it would be good for the Tigers. Pass, for now.
Hurter is in similar straights, and doesn’t have the power stuff that Madden possesses. As a result, he’s always been graded a full tier below Madden as more of a spot starting, long relief type, than a potential future full-time rotation member. The big lefty has deception, a plus slider, and generally decent command of his low 90’s sinker, but his changeup hasn’t grown into a consistent weapon for him yet either.
However, Hurter throws a lot of strikes, and unlike Madden, gets plenty of ground balls. Those two qualities give him a much better chance of success right now. Hurter’s relatively low 22.5 percent strikeout rate is only a little lower than Madden’s. His 6.9 percent walk rate is very solid, and far and away better than Madden’s 14.3 percent. The automated ball-strike calling may have something to do with that, but it hasn’t held Hurter back.
Finally, Hurter has a 1.19 home runs per nine innings rate, which would be okay at the major league level. It’s going to go up at the major league level if he doesn’t improve, but again, Madden’s HR/9 is 2.30.
So calling up Brant Hurter seems like the Tigers best option, leaving Jobe aside. Hurter is 25, he’ll be Rule 5 eligible this fall, and he was bound to pitch in the major leagues this year. He’s left-handed, and he’s good enough that they were bound to add him to the 40-man anyway, so it’s time for him to get a look. With his command, the Tigers can help him clean up some of the minor issues remaining. Madden still has the higher ceiling because of the good fastball/slider combination, but until he puts things together consistently he’s going to continue to struggle. Hurter is much more likely to throw strikes and keep the ball in the park right now.
Bryan Sammons or Lael Lockhart Jr.
Veteran Sammons and 24-year-old Lockhart Jr. are two other solid lefties in the Mud Hens rotation who could potentially make a spot start or two. Both are low powered crafty lefty types, but they each have a solid breaking ball and a quality offspeed pitch. Sammons gets a good amount of whiffs on his changeup, while Lockhart Jr. also learned a split-change with the Tigers. It’s still inconsistent, but at times he has feel for it and it’s a pretty solid splitter.
Lockhart Jr. gets plenty of whiffs. The slider and the split-change both can generate a lot of whiffs, and despite throwing 90-93 mph, Lockhart Jr.’s deception, quick arm, and riding action will get some whiffs. The heater does get hit hard when his command is poor, but typically he’s in pretty good control. He’s pitched at both Double and Triple-A this season, and he’s consistently striking out around 30 percent of hitters. He’s walked more batters at Triple-A, but he really does have pretty good command. The ABS system has dinged him in a couple of starts. He does give up more home runs than Hurter, however.
The 26-year-old is beyond prospect status in my book, and if the Tigers just want a spot start, he might make sense. He’s another one with enough command that I think the Tigers coaching staff could polish up a few things, get Jake Rogers or Carson Kelly pulling in a few extra strikes for him, and Lockhart Jr. would probably do okay.
The 29-year-old Sammons has held the Mud Hens rotation together this season, but he doesn’t really do anything better than Hurter or Lockhart Jr. He’s got enough experience where maybe he could give the Tigers a short start in a pinch, but he really doesn’t seem like a option at the major league level for any length of time.
What’s the plan?
Again, the right decision has at least something to do with the severity of the injuries in the rotation. We can’t really forecast how those are going to go. It’s entirely possible that the Tigers will need two starters, if not three should Flaherty be traded, should all these injuries in the rotation linger deep into August. Alas, they should have won more games when everyone was healthy in April and May. So, maybe they’ll claim someone. Maybe they’ll make a small trade for starting depth. It’s hard to forecast exactly what they should do until there are some injury updates. But based on the current roster these are the basic options.
If Mize is nearing a rehab start, or one of Olson or Manning’s injuries is minor enough to only sit them down for a few weeks, maybe the shorter term options prevail. They could call up Hurter and Lockhart, putting the latter in a tandem with Kenta Maeda, and probably be okay for a few weeks.
What I’d argue against, is trying to just piece this together out of the current bullpen. If the bullpen was better, this would be a lot easier in the first place. Weakening it further, just to put someone like Brieske, Wentz, Faedo into the rotation doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. They might get through one turn of the rotation that way, but the Tigers play ten straight games from the 21st through the 30th with the Guardians, Twins, and Guardians again upcoming. With the team showing real signs of life, are the Tigers just going to run a bunch of depth pieces out there against division rivals? Or would you call up Jackson Jobe and just try to catch fire and shove their faces in?
If it’s me making the decisions? Assuming Jack Flaherty will be traded on or close to the deadline, though it could come sooner, Jobe makes his next start in Toledo on Thursday against the Louisville Bats. From there he’s on call if they need him in Detroit on Tuesday, July 30 against the Cleveland Guardians. He’s ready, and it would give the fanbase some confidence in the future, particularly if they could add a major league ready bat to play at the deadline in trading Flaherty.
Pitchers aren’t durable goods to be used when it’s most convenient and advantageous. They’re delicious fruit that must be savored when ripe in case of spoilage. Jackson Jobe still has plenty to learn. It’s just a difficult sell to argue that he’s going to learn any of it blowing through minor league lineups without much difficulty. Triple-A is unlikely to slow him down much either. The Tigers need him, and he’s more equipped to make the jump right now than any pitching prospect they’ve had since Justin Verlander circa summer of 2005. If you’re a service time freak, then just extend him now, but one way or another there’s no way they can go into 2025 pretending Jobe isn’t one of their three best options in the starting rotation. So just get on with it already.
For the moment, calling up Brent Hurter is the obvious move. Keider Montero is going to get a long look now, and Skubal and Flaherty will hold down the top of the rotation for at least one or two more starts, presumably. I think the chances of Skubal getting traded are about two percent, by the way. They’ll have to piece something around a combo of Maeda and Wentz perhaps, in the short term. If they aren’t willing to use Joey Wentz like that, it’s hard to know what he’s still doing on the team. Lockhart Jr. getting an opportunity makes more sense to me.
And if Flaherty is traded as expected, let the Jackson Jobe era begin. When healthy you’ve got Skubal, Olson, Mize, Jobe as your rotation, and several candidates for a fifth starter. He’s at a point where the Tigers can let his promotion take it’s natural course as the best pitching prospect they have at the Triple-A level. Move him up, and when the need arises don’t be shy. Jobe set himself a goal of making the major leagues this season. The Tigers should be helping their budding future ace accomplish his goals, particularly if their need remains as great as it looks right now.