The Detroit Tigers and Houston Astros have been discussing a trade that would send starting pitcher Jack Flaherty to Houston, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB Network. The Astros, along with many other teams, have been named as speculative partners in a trade for Flaherty, but this is the first sourced insider rumor linking the player and team.
The Astros stumbled badly out of the gate this year, but they have managed to fight through injury and bad luck to establish themselves as definite playoff contenders at the trade deadline. It makes sense for Houston to add a player or two as July wraps up — many of their keystone players are either approaching free agency or on the wrong side of the aging curve and they no longer have the prospect pipeline to support them for another half-decade. If team leadership smells another deep playoff run this season, buying in on Jack Flaherty is a great decision.
The Tigers also have some leverage in negations for their star pitcher; if he isn’t traded, the team can extend him a qualifying offer. Then, assuming the offer is rejected, his next contract will likely earn the Tigers a compensation pick after the first round in the 2025 draft. That’s the range where Kevin McGonigle was drafted, but there are also plenty of players taken in that range who never sniff the top 100 prospects and Detroit would likely prefer an appropriate prospect package in trade.
Tigers fans online recoiled at the idea of trading another excellent pitcher to the Astros after the staggering failure of the Justin Verlander trade in 2017. However, it’s important not to allow emotions associated with mistakes of the past to cloud our collective judgment. Watching Verlander ascend to baseball’s greatest heights with his new team while Franklin Perez and Daz Cameron sputtered out in Detroit’s system was painful, but that’s the risk with any trade that prioritizes the future.
Additionally, the Tigers’ current coaching methods are far superior to anything the staff seven years ago could imagine, meaning it’s not likely that the Astros can unlock another level for Flaherty once he enters their system.
Let’s take a quick look at what the Astros have to offer in terms of prospects. It’s not a very impressive farm system. They only have one really legit position player prospect in outfielder Jacob Melton. Unless they’re willing to trade Melton it’s tough to imagine they’re going to outbid other contenders vying for Flaherty’s services, but let’s see what is available.
Brice Matthews is a tooled-up shortstop who was selected in the first round of last year’s draft. His combination of above-average speed and plus raw power imbue Matthews with a ton of upside, but he fell in the draft due to concerns that professional pitchers would be able to dissect his messy swing and leave him reaching for air.
That’s been true to some extent — Matthews’ strikeout rates have been high at every level of pro ball he’s played at. Nevertheless, he’s also demonstrating a surprising feel for the strike zone as well and has brought his power to the plate as well, devouring High-A and Double-A pitching this year.
Zach Dezenzo has turned out to be a steal after the Astros drafted him in the 12th round of the 2022 draft. He’s drawn up in the mold of a hulking slugger; his double-plus raw power is exactly what you’d expect from the squarely built, 6-foot-5 infielder. He’s had nothing but success at the pro level in the last two seasons and is a solid defender at the infield corners.
However, he’s only played a few games at Triple-A this year because of a wrist injury, and while he generally makes good swing decisions, both FanGraphs and Baseball America report bat-to-ball trouble on well-located fastballs.
Alonzo Treadwell is the kind of pitcher who comes alive under the instruction of Gabe Ribas’ development team. He has the traits that the Tigers have targeted in the last two drafts — he creates a ton of induced vertical break on his fastball, throws multiple two-plane breaking balls, and has a huge 6-foot-8 frame.
Opinions vary on his command upside, but he has limited walks so far, and the greatest limiting factor will be his health. I’d love to see him blossom into a mid-rotation starter in Detroit’s pipeline.
Jake Bloss is already pitching in Houston’s rotation and would almost certainly claim a major-league role in Detroit as well. He’s already packing the fastball/cutter combination that the Tigers like to instill with their starting pitching prospects, but he also uses a more traditional slider and curve that shows promise as well.
Houston may be more reluctant to give up Bloss because they need pitching, but as an MLB-ready pitcher, it makes sense for Detroit to push for him to be included in early negotiations.
Waner Luciano is a long way from the major leagues but he’s reportedly hitting for MLB level exit velocities and should push for top-end exit velocities as he physically matures. Like many prospects already in the Tigers’ system, Luciano is an infielder without a clear defensive home.
He’s a below-average third baseman and may wind up at first or second base. The offensive profile could possibly work at first and his hitting metrics make him a worthy gamble.
Miguel Ullola has been a buzzy name in some prospect circles for a couple of years thanks to a fastball with explosive velocity and shape that draws plenty of whiffs. Because he backs it up with a pair of hard-breaking balls that show above-average potential, the Astros are allowing him to continue pitching in the Double-A rotation.
However, his home probably lies in late-inning relief. Ullola has no softer stuff that he can throw with consistency and he’s made little progress spotting the ball since he entered pro ball.
Shay Whitcomb is a player who I wanted the Tigers to draft in 2020, but he went to the Astros instead; now he’s on the cusp of the major leagues. He’s the rare utility player with a profile built on power and has split most of his time this season between shortstop and third base, simply raking at the plate with a .292/.380/.524 slash line including a whopping 20 home runs already.
There have always been concerns about Whitcomb’s ability to make contact, but things are looking up in that department as well in his second chance in Triple-A. He’s swinging at far fewer pitches outside the zone and his walk-to-strikeout ratio jumped from a terrifyingly low .20 to a respectable .58 mark this season.