The July 30th, 6:00 p.m. ET MLB trade deadline is now fast approaching, but despite another wave of injuries to key players, so far the deals are just starting to flow. The Tigers are certainly a team awash in rumor, and we’ll look at the possibilities ahead. Still a recent history of quieter July deadlines leads one to wonder if it just won’t get that crazy this season.
On Thursday, the Miami Marlins traded lefty A.J. Puk to the Arizona Diamondbacks. late Thursday night, the Rays traded Randy Arozarena for a solid but unspectacular pair of prospects. The other news of note was Chicago White Sox left-hander Garrett Crochet’s reported terms for any team looking to trade for him in the midst of an outstanding breakout season. After years of injuries, Crochet has emerged as a frontline starter, but is also well beyond his previous workload thresholds. Multiple reports say Crochet would refuse to pitch in October without an extension.
A few more deals came through on Friday and Saturday, but with the deadline in just three days, there is a lot of news and a lot of trades coming in the next few days.
Let’s take a look at ten Tigers players and forecast their future over the next few days.
Tarik Skubal
We’ll start here because I don’t want to scare you. The chance of the Tigers ace being traded are not zero, but they are pretty slim. Start with the fact that only the Baltimore Orioles really have the near major league ready prospects that could ensure the the relatively new Tigers’ front office doesn’t come out of this looking like complete buffoons. When only one team can really make that happen, the chances are low. Leverage isn’t an issue, as the Tigers have no pressing need to trade Skubal and can hold out for the moon. Still, Mike Elias doesn’t seem like the type to trade his top position player prospects for one pitcher, even the best in the game. And the Tigers front office would be taking a huge risk while infuriating most of the fanbase.
We haven’t written much about it, because much of national and local media is shopping Skubal around for easy content and it’s over the top. It’s not impossible that the Orioles give in and give the Tigers everything they want to, but it still feels like there’s very little chance of it happening. It’s really hard to see any other contender being willing and able to make this kind of deal right now.
Jack Flaherty
A resurgent Flaherty has been a real treat to watch in a Tigers’ uniform this season. The club really pursued the 28-year-old right-hander in the offseason, with both Scott Harris, A.J. Hinch, and the coaching staff all working to convince him they could get his career back on track after four mediocre and injury plagued seasons. Mission accomplished.
With the Tigers, Flaherty ditched his cutter and improved his fastball movement in the process. His confidence in the heater soared as the whiffs started coming, and that opened up everything for his excellent pair of breaking balls. A 2.95 ERA/3.10 FIP, with the second best K-BB rate in the game among starting pitchers, says Flaherty made the right choice coming to Detroit. Chris Fetter and his staff will hopefully become a more popular landing spot for talented pitchers looking to break through.
It’s hard not to fantasize about a possible Skubal/Flaherty/Olson/Jobe/Mize rotation in 2025, but it’s a foregone conclusion that Flaherty will be traded in the next few days. With a fairly lengthy injury history behind him, and the need to focus their resources on improving the offense, trading him makes sense. As a player rep to the union, Flaherty was more engaged than most in the last CBA negotiation, and seems like a guy who will rightly place a ton of value on getting what is probably his one crack at free agency at the height of his powers. A last minute, somewhat team friendly extension doesn’t seem to be in the cards. One would assume the Tigers at least inquired already.
As I mentioned, the White Sox’ Garrett Crochet has a few red flags for a team looking to swing a trade for a rental. An Orioles deal where Coby Mayo, Samuel Basallo, and a top pitching prospect went to Chicago in exchange for Luis Robert Jr. and Crochet seemed like a strong fit until the news about Crochet’s stance on his health and workload was reported. It still seems like a good fit if the Orioles are willing to pursue extension talks, but it’s certainly much more complicated if Crochet won’t pitch in the postseason without a new contract.
As a result, Flaherty is the best rental arm available and the Tigers should get a pretty good prospect in return for him. Not a top 30-40 blue chipper, but a back of the top 100 type is not at all out of the question. Last year they landed a quality prospect graded more in the 200 range nationally in infielder Hao-Yu Lee. That is playing out very well as the 21-year-old has emerged as a very promising young hitter at the Double-A level this season. They should do significantly better for Flaherty.
Of course, the Tigers could always keep him and, assuming everything went well the rest of the season, make a one year qualifying offer on Flaherty, which he would refuse, giving the Tigers an extra compensation round pick in the draft. I think that is highly unlikely, but it does mean that the Tigers have obvious leverage that potential trade partners have to accept. The Orioles, Astros, Dodgers, Yankees, and even in division rivals like the Guardians and the Twins, all need another good starting pitcher pretty badly to win in October.
For years, we talked about the club’s failure in most of the rebuilding years to create a development system that could improve players. As a result, they failed again and again to sign and develop good tradeable talent that could hasten the development of the farm system. Jack Flaherty is a top tier example of what a coaching staff like Fetter’s can do for a player. The Tigers should be well compensated and Jack well remembered among Tigers’ fans. Scott Harris did pretty well to land infielder Hao-Yu Lee for Michael Lorenzen last July, but the Eduardo Rodriguez debacle undercut the trade deadline moves last year. The competition for Flaherty will be a lot more active, and the Tigers better do really well here.
Carson Kelly
This is another likely trade that isn’t going to feel too good. One of Harris’ best moves so far was signing veteran Arizona Diamondbacks catcher Carlson Kelly last August. A.J. Hinch and the Tigers catching coaches improved the veteran’s framing and he’s suddenly swinging the bat like he did when he was 24-26 after a couple of down years that saw the Diamondbacks designate him in favor of Gabriel Moreno. And yet, Kelly is currently on pace for the best season of his career.
I wrote about the catcher situation a few days ago, so I won’t re-hash it all.
Essentially, with Dillon Dingler breaking out with the bat, and Kelly a free agent as season’s end, it’s time to trade Carson Kelly. This is another example of what A.J. Hinch and the Tigers coaching staff at all levels are capable of in terms of improving players. And so again the Tigers will have made an inexpensive pickup that nets them a decent prospect in return.
The problem is that there aren’t so many teams looking for catching help. The Texas Rangers and the Houston Astros make some sense in this regard, and the Boston Red Sox are looking for help, but it’s also possible that Kelly, as Flaherty’s personal catcher most of this season, ends up going wherever Jack goes to ease the transition to a new team and new coaching staff.
Either way, Kelly has more value in trade than Jake Rogers does, and historically they’re pretty equivalent as hitters and in defensive value. With Dingler coming on strong and due for his first look at the bigs, Kelly is highly likely to be traded.
Mark Canha
The Tigers identified Canha’s $11.M team option with the Brewers as a contract they’d probably have to buyout rather than pay considering their payroll restrictions. As a result they were able to get the veteran outfielder and first baseman for just a reliever prospect. The deal has worked out pretty well for the Tigers. At 36 years old, Canha wasn’t supposed to play as much as he has, but Spencer Torkelson’s collapse made the veteran an important backup plan this season as well as providing the gritty, veteran leader vibes to an otherwise young collection of position players.
After a hot start, Canha has cooled way off at the plate. However, he continues to give the Tigers average offensive production through his on-base ability. It’s hard to find a team that really needs anything he has to offer, however, particularly on the part-time basis that would help Canha produce at his best. Any team that wants to pick up the rest of his salary this year can probably land him for a similar return as the Brewers got in exchange for him. Which is to say, not too much.
Gio Urshela
Much has been made of the Tigers inability to address their infield weaknesses this season. Of course, other than Spencer Torkelson’s flame out, most of these issues were obvious going into the season. The Tigers picked up Urshela in late February for a measly $1.5M with a few incentives attached, and it’s a good thing they did. Especially early in the season, the Tigers really needed Urshela’s contact ability and defensive versatility to plug holes in the infield.
However, at this point the Tigers are probably thinking about getting infielder Jace Jung a look at the major leagues down the stretch. That doesn’t mean they don’t want to keep Urshela on to help out at first base, but with Matt Vierling and Andy Ibáñez on the roster and unlikely to be moved, a team that wants some veteran infield help and a competent contact hitter can likely flip a project arm to the Tigers for Urshela.
Seemingly, one of he or Canha will be moved to make room for Jung, but they Tigers aren’t going to get much in return. The priority is just more toward the side of opening a spot on the 40-man roster for Jung. If anyone comes calling for either infielder, they can be had for very little. Probably the Tigers would be better targeting some international bonus pool money in exchange, but nothing too consequential is going to come of this.
Akil Baddoo
I mention Akil Baddoo because he’s a versatile outfielder with speed and power, with the ability to play center field. Since picking him in the 2020 Rule 5 draft, Baddoo has been worth 1.9 fWAR, with most of that value coming in his rookie year of 2021. He’ll be 26 years old in a few weeks, and while he still has option years available, the Tigers haven’t been able to unlock the bat, and they now have an assortment of center field options who all play the position as well or better than Baddoo.
Parker Meadows hasn’t been able to establish himself as the everyday centerfielder yet, but his tools are bigger than Baddoo’s in terms of defense, and Meadows offers similar raw power in a left-handed bat, but a little more likelihood that he starts getting to that power more in games. The breakout of Wenceel Pérez as a viable center field option, along with Matt Vierling, and occasional help from Riley Greene, makes the path back to the major leagues really unlikely for Baddoo. And so, it feels like it’s about time to clear his spot on the 40-man roster and give him a chance to play more regularly in a different organization. Perhaps another team can help him find his way to more consistency at the plate.
In short, the relationship between Baddoo and the Tigers has gotten stale at this point. So they should be ready to move him for very little if another team wants to give it a shot. It’s also more and more likely that he’ll be designated for assignment this offseason. Point being, if a team has interest, the Tigers will almost certainly let Baddoo go for very little. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a team flip a minor prospect for him.
Relievers
Beyond their miserable infield, the other element of the roster that has held the Tigers back this season is their bullpen. There isn’t a ton to offer here. It’s a collection of solid relievers without anyone capable of dominating hitters consistently. Scott Harris basically kept the band together after the 2023 season, and it hasn’t worked out.
Alex Lange struggled badly and then went down with a lat strain and may miss the rest of the season. Jason Foley has been effective as usual, but after a great run in April has come back to Earth as just a solid right-handed reliever but nothing special. Will Vest continues to post pretty solid overall numbers, but the drop in his slider’s effectiveness has made him more vulnerable than he was last year. In short, the Tigers don’t have a lot to offer here and while relief help is always at a premium this time of year, it’s hard to see many teams making a push to trade for one of the Tigers’ relievers.
The exceptions might be Andrew Chafin and Tyler Holton. Teams always need a lefty, and the Tigers do have two good ones. Chafin struggled with his command some this season, but more recently he’s been dialed in, striking out a ton of hitters, keeping the walks under control, and possessing the ability to handed either handed hitters.
Holton is more versatile due to his deep pitch mix and typically excellent command. He isn’t the strikeout collector that Chafin is, not even close, but Holton keeps the ball in the park, has the ability to handle either handed hitters as well, and can also spot start and go multiple innings.
Teams will probably inquire on both, but if I’m running the Tigers I wouldn’t bother unless someone is willing to overpay. The Tigers have a club option on Chafin for 2025, as well as for Shelby Miller for that matter. Holton still has many years of team control. And as we’ve seen, the farm system has plenty of good arms with good stuff, but unless someone emerges as dominant closer type reliever, the Tigers are going to need all the solid relievers they can get.
This is an area of the roster they really need to improve by 2025 if they’re going to put together a legit contender. Selling off their better arms doesn’t make that much sense unless a team really gives you a decent prospect with upside. Teams will check in on Chafin and Holton, and probably Foley too, but the Tigers are probably better off staying put, and trying to add one really good relief arm by March of 2025.
Spencer Torkelson
Occasionally, we see people speculating about moving on from their former first overall pick, but it isn’t going to happen. Are there teams out there that would like a crack at trying to develop his bat? Sure. But they aren’t going to give up much. Even some of the challenge trade ideas for other struggling former top prospects like Brett Baty with the Mets, forget that Baty has defensive utility that Torkelson does not. If you can’t turn Torkelson into a monster hitter, he’s just a mediocre DH, and there’s little value in that. The Tigers are much better off working with Tork and trying to figure this out rather than flipping him for very little. I’d be very surprised to see him traded.
Expectations
With Skubal not going anywhere, the trade deadline is going to come down to Jack Flaherty. A few other players could draw some interest, but it’s just unlikely to be in the Tigers’ best interest to flip them based on their likely value in prospect return. As the best rental arm available, and without Crochet’s baggage, the Tigers should have a minor bidding war playing out in their favor. They would be wise not to screw it up the way they did with Eduardo Rodriguez last July. The situations are different enough that I don’t think there’s much to be worried about, however.
Beyond that, Kelly will be traded unless the Tigers decide they would rather pair him with Dillon Dingler than Jake Rogers for the next few seasons. That would require an extension for Kelly signed in the coming days. In that scenario, maybe Rogers is traded. But in the end, it’s going to be Kelly. Beyond that, there aren’t going to be many other deals.
More likely, Scott Harris and GM Jeff Greenberg will be scouring the 40-man rosters of the contenders out there, looking for players who might get placed on waivers or flipped to make a spot for a new trade acquisition. Last year they landed Eddys Leonard and Lael Lockhart Jr. from the Dodgers by these means. The Tigers 40-man roster has several obvious players who could be released if they can find an upgrade elsewhere.
There are just 73 hours and change left until the deadline. And now we wait.