Let’s get the important part out of the way: today, on July 30, 2024, the Detroit Tigers did not trade ace starting pitcher Tarik Skubal.
Thank you for coming; see you all next year!
Ok, there’s more, but the most important note from the trade deadline is that they did not trade Tarik Skubal at peak value, and so now the goal has to be to actually really try to win in 2025. Otherwise none of this makes any real sense.
The 2023 MLB trade deadline only saw one Detroit Tigers trade: starting pitcher Michael Lorenzen was dealt to the Philadelphia Phillies for infield prospect Hao-Yu Lee (fun fact: Lorenzen is now on his fourth team in two seasons, and Lee made the Futures game in the minor leagues!).
More notable from last year’s deadline was a now-infamous Detroit Tigers mishap. In his first season as Tigers president of baseball operations, Scott Harris failed to secure a trade of a very good starting pitcher in Eduardo Rodriguez to the Los Angeles Dodgers, as Rodriguez refused to waive his limited no-trade clause. Rodriguez was ineligible for a qualifying offer, and thus Detroit received no compensation when Rodriguez departed Detroit for the Arizona Diamondbacks this past offseason. (We should be thankful he opted out at all, as Rodriguez has not pitched for Arizona this season.)
Everybody else was for sale from the Detroit Tigers this trade deadline, however! (Skubal, of course, was only for sale “theoretically.”) Over a 48-hour span, the Detroit Tigers dealt catcher Carson Kelly, left-handed relief pitcher Andrew Chafin (again), breakout starting pitcher Jack Flaherty, and aging outfielder/first baseman Mark Canha. Three of the four players were on expiring contracts following the conclusion of the 2024 season; Chafin’s contract includes a 2025 club option.
As a result of these transactions, the 2024 Detroit Tigers, according to MLB.com, have a rotation of Tarik Skubal and Keider Montero, who could have become the first-ever rookie to watch every one of his rotation members be traded or get injured in the span of a month.
(“Hooray!” we all cried. “More bullpen games!”)
The team also is down two middle-of-the-order bats and a critical relief pitching option. 2024 is now set to feature more starts from Kenta Maeda, not so many starts from Casey Mize after the team moved him to the 60-day injured list, apparently against his wishes and… maybe some starts from Reese Olson?
That sucks.
But, in the meantime, the executive that everybody laughed at in 2023 secured a top-3 prospect from the Dodgers organization in exchange for a two-month starting pitching rental.
(“Hooray!” we all cried again. “A moral victory for the closed-book Ivy League grad!” I’m so excited for him to celebrate in private.)
So, who did Detroit sacrifice their 2024 for? Let’s take a surface-level look at the names exchanged at the deadline. Keep an eye on continued trade deadline coverage from our team, as I am not necessarily doing scout-level analysis these days. (Nothing will ever beat covering Skubal, so I’ll just keep talking about Skubal.)
Trade #1: C Carson Kelly for C Liam Hicks and RHP Tyler Owens
In 2024, Carson Kelly produced a 105 wRC+ as a hitter whilst grading out excellently in Fangraphs WAR as a defensive catcher.
Liam Hicks has posted a 107 wRC+ in eighty 2024 games at Double-A, striking out in only 12.6% of his at-bats and walking in 11.7% of his at-bats. Hicks also played 77 games at Double-A in 2023, so a Triple-A call-up is imminent for the 25-year-old catcher. (Reminder: catching prospects typically skew older! Just ask rookie Dillon Dingler, who turns 26 in September and just made the big league team after an excellent hitting first-half in Toledo.)
Tyler Owens is a relief-pitching prospect who has decent strikeout rates and excellent walk rates in 35.1 innings this season at Double-A. Fangraphs recently updated his prospect profile to give him a 65-grade fastball, but he is a one-pitch pony profile.
Summary: Detroit bypasses an extension with a league-average catcher because he is 30 years old and instead doubles down on Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers whilst adding Liam Hicks to the mix. As a sweetener, Detroit obtains a fastball-reliant bullpen prospect.
Trade #2: Cash Considerations for RHP Ricky Vanasco
Per True Blue LA, Ricky Vanasco has been called up three times this season and pitched twice for the Dodgers; one of those outings came on July 13 against Detroit, when he allowed hits to all three baserunners he faced in the ninth inning. Thankfully for Vanasco, he is now pitching for the Tigers instead of against them. Vanasco turns 26 in October and has a two-pitch middle relief profile. He throws a Fangraphs-graded 60-grade fastball and a curveball that could also reach that level. Vanasco has posted a 3.47 ERA in Triple-A this season, but walked nearly 19% of hitters he faced while doing so. He will report to Detroit.
Summary: Detroit picks up an immediate young middle-relief option without sacrificing an asset.
Trade #3: LHP Andrew Chafin for RHP Joseph Montalvo and RHP Chase Lee
Andrew Chafin returned to Detroit this year for a second stint in the Olde English D. After 2022, Chafin opted out of a player option with the team; this time, Detroit dealt Chafin out despite a team option for 2025. Chafin posted 0.8 fWAR in 41 games for Detroit this season; he posted 0.9 fWAR for Detroit in 64 games back in 2022.
Joseph Montalvo has posted a 2.44 ERA, 4.01 FIP, and 3.83 xFIP at High-A this season in 13 games started. Fangraphs believes him to have 60-grade command potential and a 60-grade slider, as well as the potential for a league-average fastball and a slightly above-average changeup.
Chase Lee, meanwhile, becomes the second relief pitching prospect acquired by Scott Harris in as many trades. Lee has posted a 1.69 ERA in just 10.2 innings at Triple-A this season for Texas, although he has walked 13.5% of batters faced in that span. Lee will likely see action out of the Detroit bullpen soon.
Summary: Detroit ships out an aging lefty reliever for a starting pitching prospect who will likely slot into the middle of the team’s top-30 prospects, As a sweetener, Detroit obtains a near major league-ready bullpen prospect with a slider-driven profile.
Trade #4: RHP Jack Flaherty for C/1B Thayron Liranzo and SS Trey Sweeney
Jack Flaherty has experienced a career renaissance in Detroit this season. The same pitcher who walked over 10% of hitters he faced in 2022 and 2023 walked just 4.6% of his hitters faced in a Tigers uniform whilst striking out 32% of hitters. Flaherty is poised to sign a large deal this offseason and was eligible for a qualifying offer this offseason.
Thayron Liranzo was recently ranked Fangraph’s #73 prospect in MLB, and his stock all lies within his thump. Liranzo has a 35-grade hit tool, 30-grade speed, and is a 30-to-40-grade fielder, but Fangraphs projects Liranzo to develop into 60-grade game power and believes him to have 60-grade raw power today (with 70-grade raw power in his future). Liranzo hit 24 home runs in 94 games in A-ball last season and has posted a 106 wRC+ in High-A in 74 games this year. It is unclear whether Liranzo’s arm will allow him to play catcher, or if he will move to first base.
Trey Sweeney was once a highly-touted prospect in the New York Yankees system and was selected 21st overall in the 2021 MLB Draft. Fangraphs grades Sweeney as LA’s #8 organizational prospect, liking him as a utility-type player in the future. He struggled during his half-year in the Dodgers organization, posting an 87 wRC+ in 96 games at Triple-A. With that said, he hit 13 home runs and stole 16 bases along the way.
Summary: Detroit bypasses an expensive contract extension with Jack Flaherty, at least for now (he’s not coming back, Zane, let it go), to add a top-100 high-power prospect and a near Major League ready shortstop/utility player to the organization.
Trade #5: OF/1B Mark Canha for RHP Eric Silva
One more trade, one more new relief prospect. Detroit acquired Mark Canha this past offseason to secure a middle-of-the-lineup bat for 2024. Canha got off to a hot start in Detroit, posting a 161 wRC+ in March/April, before struggling his way to a 98 wRC+ mark across his 93 total games this season for Detroit. Canha will turn 36 before next season begins.
Eric Silva, meanwhile, turns 22 this October and has struck out 29.3% of the hitters he has faced in Double-A this season. His profile is lifted by a 3,000 RPM curveball, per Fangraphs, and he is the most exciting bullpen prospect on paper when compared to Lee and Owens.
Summary: Detroit ships out a late-career bat rental to take a good shot at a future high-leverage relief pitcher.