No one is mistaking the Detroit Tigers for a juggernaut just yet, but this team has something going on and the future is looking brighter and brighter since the All-Star break. The team has held its own despite major injuries to the starting rotation and the outfield. Rookies have been big contributors to this relative success as they hold a 15-15 record since the All-Star break.
The doldrums of mid-May through June are forgotten with Kerry Carpenter, Riley Greene, and Parker Meadows finally healthy and productive again. Dillon Dingler is off to a decent start as catcher of the future despite a cold bat his first two weeks in the bigs. Wenceel Perez, Matt Vierling, and Andy Ibáñez have established themselves as a solid collection of role players. And suddenly Jace Jung and Trey Sweeney have come up and had their moments in the early going of their first tests at the major league level. This offense has some work left before they’re going to look like an AL Central contender, but now that everyone is finally assembled, things are tracking in the right direction.
It’s wise not to trust that feeling too much. Several of those players still have a lot to prove. Tigers player development has improved immensely over the past few years, but there’s no team where just every single player hits their baseline projection, let alone their peak projections.
There is clearly still plenty of work to be done, but it sure would be interesting to see what a healthy Reese Olson and Casey Mize would add to this mix, along with a really good backend reliever. You could even argue that the Tigers have actually been either a bit unlucky, or just undone by the lack of a real shutdown reliever in the late innings and should have a little better record. The Tigers have now scored 527 runs, and allowed 526 runs this season. They’re 62-65 on the year, with a .500 plus/minus in run scoring.
It’s a huge credit to A.J. Hinch, Chris Fetter, and the Tigers other pitching coaches and analysts that the Tigers’ pitching staff has been among the best in baseball in all notable categories in August. It’s probably a bit of a credit to Jake Rogers, Carson Kelly, and now Dillon Dingler as well. That much success, with Tarik Skubal, a still green Keider Montero, and peak Kevin Cash-Tampa Bay Rays level improvisation with openers, bulk relievers, setup men, and the mighty Tyler Holton as the lynchpin, is pretty incredible, even over a relatively short span of games.
Seriously folks, hiring A.J. Hinch was probably the single best move Al Avila made in running the Tigers. Everything you’re seeing in coaching and overall player development throughout the entire system goes back to him more than anyone else in the organization. It’s not like he’s been handed some aces and a bunch of good veteran hitters. They developed Tarik Skubal into an ace themselves. The rest of the staff is a pack of strays. Even Reese Olson was a quality pitching prospect but never a top 100 list guy. He developed into a frontline starter in the Tigers’ organization and didn’t even put it together until getting called up to work with Fetter and assistant pitching coach Robin Lund. And day in and day out, there isn’t a younger, more homegrown position group in baseball right now.
It’s very easy now to be excited about the future. The question is how to take the next step. The needs are actually really simple and pretty obvious. Filling them is lot more complicated. Let’s start by roughing out what they’ve got to see what they need to do this offseason.
We’ve seen enough to know that the Chris Ilitch run Tigers aren’t just going to go on a spending spree to take the next step. Ultimately that can be destructive anyway if it goes too far, so to some degree we approve. Still, the Tigers spend $130M last year and are on track to spend only $103M this season. $140M doesn’t seem at all out of the question for the 2025. Arguably pursuing a bat in free agency or trade last offseason, particularly in the infield, could have had the 2024 Tigers in position to contend for a wild card spot.
They can’t make the mistake of spending Tarik Skubal’s last two seasons before free agency without doing enough to give them a shot at the AL Central crown. If they were going to trade him, July was the time, when he’d hold the value of three offseasons to a buyer. Sure he’s still got plenty of value if the Tigers decided to deal him this offseason, but significantly less than he did a few weeks ago. They kept him. So it’s go time now, no excuses.
Let’s start with a quick run through the Tigers’ position groups, It’s easy to see where they need an upgrade.
Pitching Staff
It’s only August 22. Much could change the rest of the way, so I’m not going to go deep here. The Tigers have Tarik Skubal and Reese Olson as a really good 1-2 punch in their rotation. They have enough options in Keider Montero, Casey Mize, and then some kind of fifth starter role that sees Matt Manning, Brant Hurter, Kenta Maeda in it to think there’s a solid core group there. Clearly they need some help though, because the pitching injury gods are cruel. At some point, that help is going to come from the best pitching prospect in baseball, Jackson Jobe, and they have a smattering of other potentially useful guys like Troy Melton or Ty Madden, but they’re going to sign at least one starting pitcher.
Would Justin Verlander want to come home for two years, $36M? Sounds good to me. More likely the Tigers would be more interested in pursing a talented but wayward and oft-injured pitcher like Walker Buehler, as the Days of Roar podcast recently suggested. Maybe he’s your Jack Flaherty 2.0. Just remember to get a team option this time, please. There are plenty of options. Probably Jack Flaherty himself is going to land a sizable long-term deal of the sort the Tigers probably don’t want to engage with right now. Considering Flaherty’s injury history, that’s pretty reasonable, but there’s Robbie Ray, Max Scherzer, Blake Snell, Shane Bieber, Yusei Kikuchi, and plenty more available in free agency. Whatever the Tigers decide here, it’s pretty easy to trust that they can put together a really good pitching staff.
The other element to that is the bullpen. Outside of a sluggish start in April and May of this season, Tyler Holton has been one of the most valuable relievers in the league since his 2023 debut. Jason Foley and Will Vest are pretty good setup man when used to their best advantage. That’s kind of it. The Tigers came into the season expecting Lange and Holton to be good and that bet blew up in their faces as Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin struggled as well. Foley was great for a while, but they did work him pretty hard and eventually he went into a long funk as well. That weakness cost them some games in the first half, and those are games that could’ve been the difference between buying and selling at the trade deadline.
They have Beau Brieske, Alex Faedo, Joey Wentz, as older relievers. Only Brieske has really been convincing to me, and none of them feel like guys you should be depending on in 2025. They could try converted a Matt Manning or Ty Madden to relief, and both have good fastballs when they’re airing it out full throttle. Still, not really much likelihood of a dominant relief arm. Wilmer Flores has the stuff, but has missed much of the season with a shoulder injury and is just starting a rehab assignment in Lakeland. And he still had command issues despite the excellent peak stuff. Freddy Pacheco’s return from Tommy John has gone slowly, and there’s no guarantee the Tigers see a healthy Alex Lange next season.
Somewhere, and probably without going out and signing a big free agent reliever, because no one really wants that, they have to find a way to put a pair of killers in the back end of this bullpen if they’re to win anything in 2025.
Position players
In the end, it’s pretty easy to feel confident that the Tigers will pitch well in 2025. Unless injuries just decimate their best arms, they’ve shown themselves very capable of getting solid performances from a pretty non-descript cast of pitchers, and won’t be undone by their worst starters.
The lineup is the crucial side of the equation this offseason. The outfield is pretty good as currently constructed. With Wenceel Pérez and Matt Vierling to spell Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter and help keep them healthy, and both capable of handling center field in Parker Meadows’ absence, the outfield is the least of the Tigers’ worries. Sure, you’d love a monster right-handed bat out there, but as the saying I just made up goes, fill in your deepest holes and your depth will improve.
Likewise you’re going to see Dillon Dingler and Jake Rogers handling the catcher position. Rogers has had a down year offensively, but he remains excellent behind the plate and a focal point of team chemistry. If he can get back to the power production of the past two seasons, he’ll get plenty of playing time. Dingler’s defensive ability and breakout in Toledo has us excited to see how he develops, but of course the bat isn’t a sure thing. Still, you can bet this is the duo they’re going to ride with, so there’s little to discuss.
The infield is the problem. Colt Keith is locked at second base and we’re very much looking forward to his sophomore season. Third base might actually be in better shape than shortstop or first base with Jace Jung in the mix. He’s not a sure thing there, but he should be a reasonably productive hitter against right-handed pitching, and Matt Vierling and Andy Ibáñez could be of use there as well. Trey Sweeney also may be a quality backup plan.
So, build up the pitching, and then the two obvious gaping holes are at shortstop and at first base. In the end it all boils down to this. Spencer Torkelson is a below average defender even at first base, and has really struggled in three years at the major league level. Javier Báez and Zach McKinstry have combined to produce the least value for any team at the shortstop position.
The Tigers are smart enough not to go into next season depending on Spencer Torkelson, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to seek an upgrade at first base either. Maybe Colt Keith or Jace Jung moves there part time. Sure, the Tigers could at least theoretically sign Pete Alonso coming off a down year. They could add Christian Walker on a one-year deal and keep their longer term options open. More likely, keeping the first base position flexible and fixing the shortstop position makes a lot more sense as the number one priority this offseason.
Would the Tigers sign Ha-Seong Kim, one of the two best shortstops on the free agent market? Probably not. Kim is going to decline a $7M mutual option, and the San Diego Padres will give him a qualifying offer, and then the 28-year-old will land a deal possibly in excess of $120M. That would certainly make the Tigers three to four wins better at a stroke, but there’s no way of knowing if Kim would even be interested. They don’t want to overpay for a player who has to be convinced by the money to forego bigger market teams on the coasts.
Willy Adames will be 29 next year, but continues to be an outstanding defense shortstop who hits 20-25 home runs per year and has improved his discipline and thus his on-base percentage in recent years. He was a top Tigers prospect when he was sent to the Rays for David Price back in 2014, so he does have at least some Tigers’ ties. He might get even more than Kim in free agency, but perhaps he’s more likely to seriously consider Detroit.
Either solution would be great. Get one of the two, add pitching, and barring a particularly gnarly rash of injuries next year, the Tigers would be a legit contender.
A more likely solution based on Scott Harris’ posture in running the Tigers so far, would be something like signing Paul DeJong for two years and $32M and having him split some time with Trey Sweeney at shortstop and perhaps filling in a bit at third base as needed. That seems more like the Tigers’ speed. Anything that removes Báez/McKinstry and substitutes something close to average production at the position would be a major improvement for the overall roster.
The final possibility is making a trade. The Toronto Blue Jays still seem set to part ways with Bo Bichette. They seem set to rebuild around Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the relationship between Bichette and the club is rumored to be somewhat strained. The 26-year-old shortstop is having a terrible season, hitting for minimal power, and has dealt with a couple of injuries. He only has a year until free agency. I would love to see the Tigers make serious inquiries about acquiring him.
Now, I’m also pretty onboard with the Tigers hoarding their prospect wealth. Long-term success is built on that. But it’s also true that with Skubal doing ace things and a lot of young players coming into their own, it’s time to strike. If they can get Bo Bichette without giving up Jackson Jobe, Kevin McGonigle, or Max Clark, I’m very interested, and there’s really no way he can command any of those three right now for just one season. The Tigers should get in there and see what the Blue Jays’ ask is on Bichette. If they feel like Bichette’s down year is mainly injury related, giving up a quality non-top 100 prospect as a center piece along with more, is entirely acceptable. Scott Harris and his scouting department under Rob Metzler and Mark Conner, have shown pretty clearly that they can acquire a lot of talent. Leveraging some of it to give the team a far better chance to win now is a good idea.
Point being, there are still a few holes on this team that probably aren’t going to be filled from within in a timely enough manner to potentially win in 2025.
Let the kids play
Right now, this team has an undeniable vibe and the culture within the clubhouse seems really good. There’s a lot to enjoy in watching talented young players coming into their own, or working through those first steps at the major league level. A.J. Hinch seems pretty committed to playing the rookies as much as possible, and so we should get at least the beginnings of some answers to key questions.
Has Spencer Torkelson unlocked anything? Can Trey Sweeney learn to deal with the steady diet of good breaking balls he’s going to see? Will Jace Jung’s defense grade out well enough at third base to stay there, and can he get to enough power at the major league level to start thinking of him as an everyday third baseman?
Opinions about what the Tigers should do this offseason may vary as their young players’ performance varies. Still in the end they’ve reached a pretty basic crossroads. They’re basically a .500 caliber team, however much longer they can survive these rotation injuries. To get those next seven to ten wins, which absolutely should be the standard this offseason, they presumably have to upgrade from existing players, or replace their biggest holes. The cost benefit analysis says the latter approach would be better, both for the bottom line, and to ensure space for their youngest players to continue to develop.
It’s only August 22, but it feels like the Tigers position has really come into focus over the last five weeks. The questions are really down to shortstop and first base. It’s a long wait to see what they do this offseason, but right now they’re giving Tigers fans a lot to be optimistic about. For now we’ll just enjoy the ride, but it’s pretty hard not to start looking ahead to 2025.