The news of Jackson Jobe’s promotion to the major leagues turned the final off day before the final six game push to a wild card berth into a beehive of activity online. It came completely out of left field in the best way possible. While many other teams in the chase are staggering to the regular season’s finish line with exhausted pitching staffs, the Tigers have Reese Olson and Casey Mize back, found something in relievers Sean Guenther and Brenan Hanifee, and will fortify their final push to their first postseason berth since 2014 with the consensus best pitching prospect in the game.
No one else is getting help of that caliber this final week.
The trick is not immediately expecting greatness from the 22-year-old right-hander. Jobe has four pitches that are all plus and better at their best, and he throws a ton of strikes, but it’s not yet a fully refined approach. He still has plenty of areas to improve. On the other hand, he’s better equipped to handle this than any Tigers’ pitching prospect since at least Michael Fulmer, including Reese Olson, and the Tigers aren’t going to lean on him as a starting pitcher right now anyway.
The trick is how to work him into a bullpen mix of openers, high leverage guys, Tyler Holton, who does everything, and starters turned long relievers like Brant Hurter and Ty Madden. I could complain that if the Tigers front office had considered this an option all along, they should’ve moved him up from Double-A Erie to Triple-A Toledo in early August, but I’d rather appreciate the final bold stroke in a second half that, whatever the outcome, has already been a magical run that finally promises a bright future for the whole organization.
It’s probably wise to expect A.J. Hinch and Chris Fetter to be careful with him rather than trying to lean on him in his first appearance or two. They may not shy away from a high leverage situation, but they’ll certainly be choosy about which part of the Rays or White Sox’s lineup they deploy him against for his debut. Putting players in optimal situations to succeed has been a big part of the Tigers rampage in August and September. They’ve essentially been playing playoff level matchups with the pitching staff for two months. Let’s hope they have another one in them.
When the Tigers selected Jobe with the third overall pick in 2021, there were some howls from the prospecterati. Prep shortstop Marcelo Mayer was considered both the safer best and a better fit for the Tigers long-term needs at the shortstop position. Prep pitchers are always a risky bet, and no doubt Al Avila and his scouting department took a big swing here, hoping to land a front of the rotation starting pitcher. Jobe has done a really good job validating their opinion. His full season debut in 2022 wasn’t very impressive, but after a back issue early in 2023, he emerged with more velocity, a devastating split-changeup, and much improved control. By year’s end, only Paul Skenes had a better claim to the title of best pitching prospect in baseball.
If you haven’t seen much Jobe footage, we’ve got some good examples to offer below, but start with his delivery. This is a very athletic 6’2” pitcher with excellent mobility and balance. He’ll pump 99 mph past you without too much discernable effort from his standard 96-97 mph fastball. He uses his lower half well and presents immediately as a very classical looking power pitcher with easy velocity and clean mechanics.
The ride on Jobe’s fastball isn’t always consistent, and that is one of the details that Fetter and his staff will look to refine. Velocity is great, but because Jobe gets below average extension to the plate, it will play down a tick. His best fourseam fastballs have really explosive carry and with more consistency he’ll have a plus fastball even at 94-95 mph, but for now it isn’t quite a plus pitch until he ramps up to 96 mph and beyond. Out of the bullpen it will be no surprise to see 99 and even 100+ mph when the adrenaline hits. You’ll also see a twoseam variant in a similar velocity that he can jam right-handers with though it’s less used than the high fourseamer.
Jobe’s most consistent secondary weapon this season has been that relatively new split-change. Little more than a year old, Jobe’s split has excellent fade and depth, and it’s movement profile plays off the fastball better than his sweeping slider does. Jobe gets outstanding velocity differential between his fastball and the split, often throwing the latter 12-14 mph slower with the same smooth armspeed. He’ll aggressively throw it to right-handers as well as lefties, and in most of his best strikeout performances this season, the split has been a major factor. I wouldn’t be surprised if A.J. Hinch is willing to try him against either-handed hitters without much concern for splits.
Spin rate certainly isn’t everything, but the 3000+ rpms mark Jobe can snap off on his sweeping slider has always promised a truly devastating breaking ball. His problem as a pro has been that the movement on the low 80’s snapper is so huge that he has to start it well up in the zone to get chases or better hitters can recognize it eventually and either lay off, or wait for him to hang one. It’s a good pitch now, and when he’s dropping it in on hitters with authority and command they can’t do much against it, but there’s still potential for the Tigers coaches to optimize and disguise it a little more, either by Jobe simply throwing it harder, or by tweaking the spin profile.
Finally, Jobe also has a nasty low 90’s cutter that has developed into something more like a turbo slider, with a fair amount of sweep, but good depth as well. He’ll use it to tie up lefties at times, but the harder, flatter profile is often harder to pick up off his fastball than the slider is, and as he’s added more depth it’s become more of a swing and miss offering that also generates a lot of weak contact when he mixes it in the zone effectively with the fastball.
There’s an argument to be made that Jobe tries to do too much sometimes, working all his pitches in when he could clearly dominate with his fastball and whatever secondary is most dialed in on a given day. I think that speaks more to the fact that he really hasn’t been tested very much since his re-emergence last summer and has been willing to really work on things in game. He hasn’t been as sharp since returning from a two month stint on the IL with a hamstring strain in August, but prior to that he often looked like he was throwing bullpens out there, just filling up the zone with all five pitches without much regard for game situation or the count in the at-bat. And it worked, because by and large, Double-A hitters just couldn’t deal with the raw stuff he was firing into the zone.
Now, you may go and look at his high walk rates this season and think Jobe still has significant work to do in terms of command just to hang at the major league level. I’d certainly argue otherwise having watched just about all of his starts as a professional. He was squeezed so badly in most of his Double-A starts that it was downright comical. Granted, he’s not painting the edges consistently yet, and will throw some loose pitches, but the one real issue he had was more to do with throwing too many strikes.
Jobe’s 27.1 percent strikeout rate at Double-A Erie was good, but not elite. He gets tons of weak contact, and the walks don’t concern me either so much as his tendency to get ahead of a hitter and then fire a couple of pitches right down the middle rather than more artfully setting them up off the edges. He’ll have to be more careful by far in swing counts in the major leagues, and take those opportunities to expand the zone rather than just trying to blow everyone away with the raw quality of his pitches.
In a relief role, his pitch usage will be simplified. Jobe will be guided by much more detailed game plans from Chris Fetter. He’ll have Jake Rogers or Dillon Dingler leading him, and a good major league defensive unit behind him. Major league hitters will certainly be more challenging, but Jobe will also have plenty of support.
I expect pretty good things. He’s certainly capable of a bad outing early on, but we have enough evidence of the Tigers ability to refine young pitchers and get the best out of them, that it’s easy to feel confident that Jobe perhaps the important part of Jobe’s promotion. He’ll be competing for a rotation spot next spring, and getting this experience now should be good for him long term and set him up for an important offseason.
Scott Harris and VP of Player Development, Ryan Garko, have both commented publicly on the importance of challenging young players and exposing them to pressure situations. When the Tigers didn’t move Jobe up to Triple-A Toledo, my reaction was that they probably valued him pitching in the Eastern League postseason more than a couple of Triple-A starts. Instead, they made a bold move today to try to expose him to a whole different level of pressure as the Tigers hope to show Jobe and the whole team what it means to play October baseball with everything on the line. Let’s hope they all get that chance.
Jobe may take some lumps early on, but as long as the Tigers run continues, he’s going to get better and better. Let’s hope the Tigers keep playing long enough for him to get there. The one thing the bullpen lacks right now is a flame-throwing power right-hander with outstanding swing and miss stuff. The rotation can wait until next year. Jackson Jobe could prove a huge weapon in October if the Tigers can complete this incredible stretch drive, and get their potential future ace a little experience in the process.