The Tigers announced this afternoon that right-hander Shelby Miller has cleared outright waivers and been placed on unconditional release waivers. Assuming Miller clears release waivers, he’ll become a free agent.
Miller, 34 next month, was the 19th-overall pick in the 2009 draft by the Cardinals and appeared to be a budding star during the early 2010s as he posted a 3.22 ERA in 575 1/3 innings of work from his debut in 2012 through the end of the 2015 season, when he made it to the All-Star game with the Braves. The wheels came off for Miller after that, however, and he struggled badly with both injuries and ineffectiveness over the next several years. From 2016 to 2022, Miller saw little success at the big league level with a ghastly 7.02 ERA in 202 2/3 combined innings of work across six seasons. His 5.21 FIP in that time indicated he made have been the victim of some poor luck, but even that figure was well below the league average mark for a pitcher.
Fortunately for Miller, he managed to turn his fortunes around after signing a minor league deal with the Dodgers ahead of his age-32 season last year. Now a full-time reliever, Miller pitched 42 innings for L.A. last season and dominated to the tune of an excellent 1.71 ERA that was backed up by a solid 3.68 FIP and a 25.8% strikeout rate. Miller’s impressive turnaround earned him a big league deal with the Tigers last offseason that guaranteed him $3MM.
It’s a contract that did not turn out especially well for Detroit, as a handful of blow-up outings marred an otherwise solid season for the right-hander. While 37 of his 51 appearances with the Tigers this year were scoreless, he had five outings where he surrendered three or more runs while recording three outs or less, including a disastrous outing last month where he surrendered four runs on four consecutive hits without recording an out. Turning back to his overall season in 2024, his 4.53 ERA and 4.48 FIP are both worse than league average, and his 21.8% strikeout rate represents a significant step back from last year’s level. Miller also struggled with the long ball this year relative to his time in L.A. as 12.3% of his fly balls have left the yard, nearly double last year’s rate.
Still, with free agency on the horizon for Miller once again it seems possible he could garner interest as a middle relief option this winter. Even considering his down year with the Tigers this year, the right-hander has pitched to a 3.32 ERA with a 4.14 FIP in 97 2/3 innings since rebounding with the Dodgers last winter with a combined 23.5% strikeout rate and an 8.2% walk rate. That gives Miller a fairly solid track record if his last two seasons are looked at in tandem, and it’s not hard to imagine a club believing his true talent level falls somewhere between last year’s dominant performance and his slightly below average results in 2024.