Well it didn’t work out in the Detroit Tigers favor, but at least the Alex Bregman drama is resolved. On Wednesday night, the long-time Astros star agreed to a three-year deal worth $120 million with the Boston Red Sox. Instead of former manager A.J. HInch, the soon-to-be 31-year-old Bregman will reunite with former bench coach Alex Cora instead. The deal pays him $40 million per season with opt-outs after the first two years of the deal.
Per Evan Petzold of the Free Press, and confirmed by Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, the Tigers final offer to Bregman was six years, $171 million. That’s a perfectly good offer, so there isn’t much to complain about in terms of the front office and ownership on this one.
Cody Stavenhagen of the Athletic Detroit reports that the Tigers didn’t want to include a first year opt-out, holding out for an opt-out after the 2026 season instead. That seems pretty odd, and I’m having a hard time buying that one as an actual sticking point. If the Tigers missed out because of an opt-out or ten million dollars, they blew it. That doesn’t feel all that plausible, but perhaps they did fail to be aggressive enough earlier in the offseason when the big offers weren’t really coming and the Astros had moved on.
What’s clear is that Bregman wasn’t happy with any of these deals and wanted to keep all his options open after not landing quite the monster deal he and Scott Boras were apparently expecting. Even stranger was Bregman agreeing to play second base in Boston to keep Rafael Devers at third base. I’m not sure how that part helps Bregman’s long-term value either. This all feels like another case of Boras overplaying his hand a little.
My guess all along was that it would take six years, $180 million to bring him to Detroit, but the unknown factor is always what the player really wants and who they want to play for. Clearly Bregman wasn’t all that keen about playing in Detroit. The Tigers made a fair offer, and you have to think if $10 million or the opt-out was the sticking point they would’ve made it work if he was actually really interested in playing for the Tigers. Forcing it and potentially ending up with an unhappy star who only chose your team for the money isn’t the kind of mistake the Tigers can afford to make. We’ll never know what Bregman’s true feelings were about the idea.
The Tigers offered Alex Bregman six years and about $171 million with an opt out after 2026, per source. The Tigers did not want to give Bregman an opt-out after the first season
— Cody Stavenhagen (@CodyStavenhagen) February 13, 2025
At this point, we’re glad to just have this resolved rather than a daily story with no actual news.
For Bregman, this should work out well, but it’s unlikely he ever ends up making much more than the Tigers offered him over six years, and he could certainly make less. If he stays in Boston for all three years, he’ll have $120 million under his belt, and may be able to land another short multi-year deal that brings his total earnings over the next six seasons to somewhere in the $180-200 million range. Perhaps he takes the $40 million for 2025 and finds another six-year, $150 million offer next offseason. Either way it’s difficult to see him earning far more than the Tigers offered.
Perhaps he opts out after one-year and finds a six-year $150 million deal is still in play after a season where he’ll expect to lob a bunch of homers over the Green Monster and possibly dispel concerns about his declining power numbers. But no one else has the Green Monster, and teams are still going to be skeptical of any boost to his power numbers that depends on the oddest of park factors such as Fenway provides.
More likely, Bregman ends up making roughly the same amount over six years that the Tigers offered. There’s also a solid chance that he’s largely washed up three years from now and can’t get more than a modest one-year deal. He’s betting on himself here. There just doesn’t appear to be that much upside to doing so, which bring us back to the idea that he just didn’t really want to play for the Tigers.
As for the Tigers, they retain a ton of long-term payroll flexibility as a result. Fans can at least take some comfort in the fact that the Tigers didn’t cheap out here even after signing Jack Flaherty and pushing their payroll to $144 million after spending just $104 million in 2024. Most of their free agent deals are short-term, and the Tigers could have roughly $50 million coming off the books next offseason even if Jack Flaherty opts into the final year of his deal for the 2026 season. Even so, they were willing to run the payroll up into the top half of the league, which is at least a positive sign.
The tough part, is that the Tigers backup plan has always been Matt Vierling and Jace Jung at third base. On the offensive side, that pair might match up decently against Bregman, but defensively the Tigers are pretty weak at the position. Missing out on Bregman also weakens them a little in right field, where they won’t have Vierling playing most days. Right-handed, lefty mashing outfielders like Randal Grichuk have already come off the board as the Tigers waited on a Bregman decision. Now they’ll have to adjust, and they’ll probably have to do it with what they’ve already got on hand.
Wenceel Pérez seems likely to get a fair amount of playing time in right field as the Tigers look to keep Kerry Carpenter healthy by having him as the designated hitter much of the time. Perhaps this opens up a pathway to playing time for Justyn-Henry Malloy to some degree. Andy Ibáñez is also an option to play more in the corner outfield against left-handed pitching. That would free up Vierling to play third base against lefties and pivot back to right field against right-handed pitching some days when Carpenter is in the DH slot, with Jung then working at third base. Or I’m overthinking it and you just DH Justyn-Henry Malloy some and play Carpenter in right field more.
We’ll see if the Tigers now consider pivoting toward Cardinals third baseman Nolan Arenado. That’s the last obvious option that could be on the board. The long-time Rockies All-Star is about to turn 34 and is coming off two roughly league average seasons at the plate. However, he is a right-handed hitter, though not particularly good against left-handed pitching, which is the key point, and still an outstanding defensive third baseman. He also clearly wants out of St. Louis.
Arenado has a full no-trade clause, and despite wanting out, remains rather picky about it. He has already reportedly vetoed a trade to the Houston Astros this offseason. He’s owed $52 million over the final three years of his long-term deal. Presumably, the Cardinals would cover some small portion of that contract in exchange for getting a decent prospect return. Perhaps Arenado would be interested, but that ball is entirely in his court. It’s likely that the Tigers aren’t really interested either.
Personally, I don’t really think that’s a great idea. You can’t ding Arenado too hard considering the failures of the Cardinals since they acquired him from the Rockies, but he has been fairly vocal about his displeasure with the situation. Maybe getting out of there would rejuvenate him, but just as likely you’d have a former star well into his offensive decline who expects to play everyday and might be a poor fit for the roster and the clubhouse.
There is a lack of organizational control in a move like that which likely does not appeal to Scott Harris. For a well above average player that’s how it goes, but for someone more like a stopgap measure that’s pretty far from ideal. Finding himself in another Javy Báez-type of position where he has to consider cutting a former star and eating the money is probably not on the menu. Staying put and hunting for a trade for a younger player with options, whether soon or at the July trade deadline, is probably the smarter way to go than rushing into a backup plan that involves Arenado’s age 34, 35, and 36 seasons.
The Alex Bregman saga is finally over. We’ll see if Scott Harris has anything else up his sleeve. For now, I suspect they’ll just intend on pitching everyone to death, and look to their young hitters to improve over the course of the 2025 season.