You wonder if Tigers draft info someday will be recovered at Mar-a-Lago, or by way of an Air National Guardsman’s website leak.
The Tigers’ reports, data, and notes are treated in about the same fashion as national intelligence: lots of it classified and top-secret, although the Tigers, as well as other MLB clubs, seem perhaps to do a better job of protecting their internal dope from unauthorized places and people.
Nor do the Tigers draft chiefs and scouts talk, in any degree of detail, about philosophies or preferences as they scour the sandlots and college fields ahead of July’s MLB Draft.
This puts the Tigers pretty much in step with 29 other MLB teams. They figure it’s best to keep conversation as well as scouting chatter within the family.
Still, it’s a most curious time for the Tigers, with new front-office chief Scott Harris in charge.
Note how quickly he moved to bring in two — two — new lieutenants to oversee drafting and scouting in 2023: Rob Metzler, who is an assistant general manager hired from the draft-savvy Tampa Bay Rays, and Mark Conner, who is chief scout after a dozen years with the Padres, a team also respected for its talent sleuthing.
The question — persistent, relentless, and probably unresolved until the evening of July 9 — is how this new regime will choose when, with the MLB Draft’s third overall pick, the Tigers figure to have a choice among four players, two of whom should be there at the three slot:
Dylan Crews, Paul Skenes, Wyatt Langford, Walker Jenkins.
Note that three of the above are hitters. The lone pitcher, Skenes, has a rising, near-generational status as probably the most powerful college pitcher since Stephen Strasburg from San Diego State was scooped with the first overall pick in 2009.
How will the Tigers respond here, particularly when they’re more than aware of pitching casualty statistics and how they often ruin a star pitcher’s career and a drafting team’s plans.
What has been discerned relative to how the Tigers might respond to Skenes vs. three hitters is this:
Harris is in charge as the front office’s chief decision-maker. He can support, overrule, sanction, or dismiss any recommendations from below. That goes with the territory.
What also is known is he brought aboard Metzler and Conner to make a difference in the Tigers’ draft-day preferences, which it would be argued here have been at the heart of a 39-year championship drought.
It is believed Harris will give Metzler-Conner and their cohorts ample latitude in recommending a first-round pick.
Percentages, as well as all that broken-pitcher history from past years, suggest the Tigers will go for either Langford or Jenkins, assuming Crews — who is re-designing thoughts and limits on what a college hitter can do in a given year — is snagged by the Pirates with that first pick.
Washington, which picks second, is the greater unknown. The Nationals drafted Strasburg in 2009 and might well see Skenes as a comparable mandate in 2023.
If they instead go for either Langford or Jenkins, assuming Crews has been gulped by the Pirates, the Tigers, ostensibly, would be left with either hitter not picked — and Skenes.
And that’s what drives so many Tigers critics and analytics-hounds nuts, the specter of the Tigers risking a pitcher over the seemingly and statistically more dependable choice of a thoroughbred hitter.
The view here, based on knowing who Metzler and Conner are and why they were hired, is that fans should cease risking apoplexy over the Skenes vs. Hitters issue.
I suspect it will be one of the above three hitters. If it comes down to the new Tigers regime seeing Skenes as an eventual Justin Verlander or Max Scherzer — a couple of guys who also happen to have been first-round picks — it probably will be based on a team doing sufficient analysis of body, mechanics, shapes, spins, comparisons, projections, etc., and that experience and reputations probably will count in Detroit’s eventual decision early on the evening of July 9.
I’m interested, mostly, in only one question: Which of the four (presumably four) will they select? It will be the first pick of the Scott Harris draft era. He got hired to change some history. It would be argued here, that the Tigers’ first pick July 9 will be looked at, years from now, as having been a harbinger of what’s coming Detroit’s way.
I doubt they miss.
Detroit News ranking of the top 10 amateur baseball talents as they currently sit leading into the 2023 MLB Draft, set for July 9-11.
▶ 1. Dylan Crews, outfielder, Louisiana State University, 6-foot-1, 203 pounds, right-handed batter: This paranormal presence dressed in a LSU uniform is making baseball look a bit too easy. He posted-up against another SEC team the past weekend, Ole Miss, and went 7-for-13 with two homers and a triple. In (gulp) 39 games, Crews is batting .496 with a 1.504 OPS. The man is not from this realm. Last week’s ranking: 1
▶ 2. Paul Skenes, RH starter, LSU, 6-6, 240: Any time his outing is good vs. great, as it was Friday against Ole Miss, people get nervous. Scouts aren’t terribly concerned about six innings, four hits, three walks, and 11 strikeouts, even if he did get tagged for three extra-base hits in a more laborious 117-pitch stint. Last week’s ranking: 2
▶ 3. Wyatt Langford, OF, University of Florida, 6-1, 225, RH batter: Another unseasonably cool weekend for Langford, who was only 2-for-11 against South Carolina. Nothing to worry about, especially when one remembers a month ago he was on the shelf after catching a pitch in the groin that should have felled him for more than two weeks. Last week’s ranking: 3
▶ 4. Walker Jenkins, CF, South Brunswick High, Southport, N.C, 6-3, 205, LH batter: Here is the biggest contributor to an early debate: Should any of the top three selecting teams in July take Jenkins ahead of the established Big Three of Crews, Skenes, and Langford? We’re 11 weeks from finding out, with a growing expectation Jenkins could zap one of the above trio. Last week’s ranking: 4
▶ 5. Max Clark, OF, Franklin (Indiana) Community High School, 6-1, 190, LH batter: No threat to be a first-four grab, but Clark’s speed and left-handed bat will be too much to ignore when the payoff, for a MLB team inclined to bet on risk-reward gambles, could be lavish. Last week’s ranking: 5
▶ 6. Jacob Wilson, shortstop, Grand Canyon University, 6-3, 190, RH batter: Same old issue for Wilson: Last Wednesday against Texas Tech he was 0-for-4, and then came his weekend exploits — a pair of homers, a double — against, yes, Utah Tech. No offense to Wilson’s skills, but Utah Tech’s pitching is not professional grade. Last week’s ranking: 6
▶ 7. Rhett Lowder, RH starter, Wake Forest, 6-2, 200: Getting a bit too little attention, all because Skenes has hogged the stage. But notice that Saturday start against Pitt: 6⅔ innings, three hits, three walks, seven punch-outs. Lowder is strong and consistent. He’s going earlier, perhaps, than today’s assessors might think. Last week’s ranking: 8
▶ 8. Jacob Gonzalez, SS, University of Mississippi, 6-2, 200, LH batter: He probably sticks in the top 10 because of his left-handed bat, and for now, ability to play short. But his season has been all about solid, unspectacular, play. Last week’s ranking: 7
▶ 9. Chase Dollander, RH starter, University of Tennessee, 6-2, 210: Was fine Saturday against Vanderbilt, which isn’t a team that suffers fools. Dollander’s report card: seven innings, six hits, one run, three walks, nine strikeouts. He remains top 10 stock. Last week’s ranking: 9
▶ 10. Arjun Nimmala, SS, Strawberry Crest High (Dover, Fla.), 6-1, 170, RH batter: This is a guy hiding beneath the draft’s congested canopy, with all those high-flying college studs and prep billboard-talents obscuring what’s going on in the Tampa Bay sector. Nimmala, the India native and early-stage cricket and soccer player, has a skyscraper for a ceiling. Through his first 21 games, he has a broad swath of .500-plus categorical stats. Last week’s ranking: 10
Knocking at the door
▶ Kyle Teel, C, University of Virginia, 6-1, 190, LH batter: Believe we have Teel’s profile. It’s pretty consistent, as demonstrated during a frigid weekend at Notre Dame: 2-for-12, with a double. He’s probably suffering from some rankings-abuse, nationally.
▶ Jack Hurley, CF, Virginia Tech, 6-foot, 185, LH hitter: Good pair of games against Florida State: 3-for-8, two doubles, and looking like he’ll fit neatly into a MLB team’s everyday outfield needs.
▶ Collin Ledbetter, OF, Mississippi State, 6-2, 202, LH batter: He’s worthy of top 10 chatter, and might be moving closer to more frank conversations, all because of his left-handed offense and skills at three outfield spots.
▶ Hurston Waldrep, RH starter, University of Florida, 6-1, 205: Steadily looks like a guy more attuned to top 20 aspirations than top 10 status. Friday’s six-inning show at South Carolina was reflective of Waldrep’s talents and potholes: six hits, five earned runs, three walks, 10 strikeouts, 112 pitches.
▶ Colin Houck, SS, Parkview High, Lilburn, Georgia, 6-2, 193, RH batter: Parkview is 15-0 in its region and 26-5 overall, and Houck’s been rather volatile: .516 batting average, 47 hits, 45 runs, 16 stolen bags — the usual sleigh-full of goodies.
▶ Matt Shaw, IF, University of Maryland, 5-11, 182, RH batter: Very happy that the weekend’s games were played at Maryland rather than at hypothermia-risky West Lafayette, Indiana, Shaw gave thanks with a 2-for-11 display that featured a homer.
Lynn Henning is a freelance writer and retired Detroit News sports reporter.