Kerry Carpenter was placed on the Tigers’ 10-day injured list earlier this week with what was described as lumbar spine inflammation, but the issue has unfortunately proven to be more serious. The club announced on Friday that Carpenter “is currently completing rehab for a lumbar spine stress fracture,” with no recovery timeline provided. Manager A.J. Hinch could have more details during his pregame chat with media later today, but it would appear as though Carpenter will be sidelined for at least a month, and potentially quite longer depending on the severity of the fracture.
It’s tough news for the 26-year-old Carpenter, who has quietly been Detroit’s best hitter since he made his MLB debut during the 2022 season. After hitting .273/.334/.474 with 26 homers in 572 plate appearances in 2022-23, Carpenter has taken it up another level this year, with a hefty 154 wRC+ from a slash line of .283/.342/.572 and eight home runs in his first 163 PA.
Carpenter’s production has again stood out within a Tigers lineup that has struggled to generate consistent offense. Matt Vierling and Wenceel Perez have earned more playing time due to their solid numbers, while among the players projected to be regulars going into the season, Riley Greene and Mark Canha are the only other batters besides Carpenter who have hit well. However, Canha’s status is also a question mark after he was scratched from Friday’s lineup due to soreness in his left hip.
“It’s been bothering me for a week or so,” Canha told reporters, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. “It was getting worse and worse and today was the pinnacle. It got to a point where I had to shut it down.”
For now, Canha is day to day, though he has undergone testing to see if a more serious problem is causing the hip discomfort. Acquired in a trade with the Brewers last November, Canha has delivered a 120 wRC+ (.247/.358/.401 with six home runs) in his first 215 PA in a Tigers uniform, bouncing around between the DH spot, both corner outfield positions, and some occasional work at first base. Canha’s numbers have generally been down in May, though one of his best hitting stretches of the season has actually come over the last week of play, when he was hampered by his hip injury.
Needless to say, the Tigers would be hard-pressed to lose both Carpenter and Canha for any notable length of time. Removing both hitters would put more pressure on Greene, Vierling, and Perez to stay hot, and increase the pressure on Detroit’s many struggling hitters to get on track. Colt Keith and the Jake Rogers/Carson Kelly catching tandem have started to pick it up after dismal starts to the season, but quite a bit more will be required to dig the Tigers out of their early hole in the AL Central race. A trendy dark horse pick to win the division heading into the season, the Tigers sit in fourth place with a 28-29 record, 10 games behind the first-place Guardians.
While Detroit still has four months of regular season to cut into that deficit, it is fair to wonder if the clock is really closer to two months, as in the July 30 trade deadline. The Tigers could conceivably be deadline sellers if they remain around .500 and the Guardians (or the surprising Royals, or the reigning division champion Twins) have all continued to pull away from the pack. Even if the Tigers do get back into the race, it isn’t clear just how aggressive they might be in making potential additions at the deadline, given that president of baseball operations Scott Harris again reiterated earlier this week that the organization isn’t yet planning any significant payroll boost.
“We’re not quite there yet as far as spending at that level because we need to build the foundation of this team to put us in a position to supplement it with free agent signings in the upcoming winters,” Harris said in an MLB Network interview with Brian Kenny (hat tip to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). “I have confidence that the resources will be there. The Ilitch family has always supported the Tigers, and they are ready and eager to do it….We just have to develop the core that we’re going to spend around, and we also have to target the players in upcoming winters that can really help us.”
The Tigers’ payroll has naturally dropped as the club has undergone a lengthy rebuilding period, and Detroit hasn’t enjoyed a winning season since going 86-75 in 2016. The splashy signings of Javier Baez and Eduardo Rodriguez during the 2021-22 offseason seemed to indicate that the rebuild was over, yet multiple pitching injuries and a near team-wide offensive slump resulted in a 96-loss season. Former GM Al Avila was fired in August 2022, leading to Harris’ hiring a month later as the person tasked with finally getting the Motor City back into contention.
The end of Miguel Cabrera’s contract removed the Tigers’ biggest financial commitment from the books last winter, plus Rodriguez departed to sign with the Diamondbacks (for four years and $80MM) after opting out of the last three years and $49MM on his Tigers contract. Still, the team didn’t reinvest those savings back into the roster, as the Tigers opened the season with a payroll of roughly $97.6MM, and only made modest spends this past winter on Canha and free agents Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty.
Baez’s struggles have only worsened over his three seasons in Detroit, and the heretofore disastrous nature of that contract acts as a cautionary tale for those critical of Harris’ measured approach to spending. That said, Petzold notes that Tarik Skubal’s remaining years of arbitration control (through the 2026 season) might serve as a window for the Tigers to make a push to contend, since Skubal has emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. Other promising young starters as well as Greene, Carpenter, and Keith might already form a good enough core to contend, and if Harris and ownership hold off on bigger spending until even more prospects arrive and get established, the timeline might extend past Skubal’s time with the team. Of course, locking up Skubal to a big extension would be a way for the Tigers to both increase payroll and secure a core player in a single move.