With just six games remaining in the 2024 regular season, the Detroit Tigers find themselves locked in a tie with the Kansas City Royals with identical records of 82- 74. Both teams are one game up on the Minnesota Twins, and two games up on the Seattle Mariners. At stake are the last two wild card playoff spots, with the Baltimore Orioles positioned in the first wild card spot, four games ahead of the Tigers and Royals.
There will be no “game 163”, as Major League Baseball ditched the one game playoff when they decided to expand the post season to a dozen teams and to make the wild card round a best of three series instead of a one game “play in”.
Instead of the playoff, MLB will use a formula for unlocking any ties, starting with the head to head record, aka the “season series” between the tied teams. That will break the vast majority of any ties. The full tie breaking formula is posted below at the end of this article.
Two way ties
Here are the season series between the American League playoff contenders
Royals 7 – Tigers 6
Twins 7 – Tigers 6
Tigers 5 – Mariners 1
Tigers 4 – Orioles 2
Twins 7 – Royals 6
Royals 3 – Mariners 3
Twins 5 – Mariners 2
Orioles 4 – Mariners 2
Orioles 4 – Royals 2
Orioles 3 – Twins 0 (3 to go)
In the event of a two way tie, the team in the left column wins, unless the tie is between Seattle and Kansas City, or if the Twins sweep Baltimore, in which case the formula below will be used.
Three way ties
If three teams are tied with the same record, and one team won the season series vs the other two teams, that team wins the tiebreaker. OR if one team lost the season series vs the other teams, that team loses the tiebreaker.
If the tie is between three teams for two playoff spots, when one team is selected or eliminated, go back to the season series between the two other teams to select the second team.
If no team won the season series vs the other two, the aggregate won- loss record between the three teams will be used to determine the winner of the tie breaker.
Here are the three team scenarios and tiebreakers
Royals, Tigers, Twins – The Twins won the season series vs both teams, and KC won vs Detroit. So the order in that case would be…1. Twins, 2. Royals, 3. Tigers
Tigers, Royals, Mariners – neither team won or lost the season series vs both other teams, so the aggregate won/ loss record is used. Detroit gets a big advantage once Seattle is included. 1. Tigers, 2. Royals, 3. Mariners
Tigers, Twins, Mariners – Twins won the season series vs both teams, so they win the tiebreaker, and Tigers are second in that scenario. 1. Twins, 2. Tigers, 3. Mariners
Tigers, Orioles, Mariners – Detroit won the season series vs both teams, and Baltimore bested Seattle. 1. Tigers, 2. Baltimore, 3. Mariners (note The O’s have to go 0-6 and the M’s go 6- 0 for this one)
Tigers, Orioles, Royals – No team swept the season series vs both other teams, so we use the aggregate won- loss percentage. Tigers 10- 9, Orioles 8- 6, Royals 9- 10. 1. Baltimore, 2. Detroit, 3. Kansas City
Tigers, Orioles, Twins – Minnesota and Baltimore have a 3 game series left, and the O’s swept a 3 game series earlier this season, so neither team will have won the season series vs both other teams. Minnesota must make up 5 games to catch Baltimore, so they have to sweep them for this tie to happen. 1. Twins (10-9), 2. Tigers (10-9), 3. Orioles (5-7).
Twins, Royals, Seattle – Who cares? (just kidding) Minnesota won both season series, and while the Royals and Seattle split six games, Kansas City has the better intradivision record. 1. Twins, 2. Royals, 3. Seattle
Four way ties?
Well, it’s possible that four teams finish with the same record.
Detroit, Minnesota, Seattle, Kansas City:
This would be a four way tie for two wild card spots. The Tigers lose out in a three way tie with their division rivals, having lost the season series to both teams, 7- 6, and the Twins won the season series vs all three teams, so they get the first spot available in this scenario. When Seattle joins the fray, the next spot goes to the Tigers, who have the best aggregate record against the Royals and Mariners. Seattle and KC split their series, while the Tigers took five of six games against Seattle. 1. Twins, 2. Tigers, 3. Royals, 4. Seattle.
Baltimore, Kansas City, Detroit, Minnesota:
This would be a four way tie for all three wild card slots. Even if the Twins sweep Baltimore, they can only tie their season series, so we’ll go straight to the aggregate records. We need to know how that series turns out in order to get the exact records, but we know that Detroit is 16- 16 and the Royals are 15- 17. So far, the Twins are 14- 15 with three to go, and the Orioles are 9- 6, with 3 to play. So the Tigers and Orioles would make the playoffs, while the Twins would also get a spot by sweeping Baltimore, which they must do in order to tie them, being 5 games back of the Orioles right now. The Royals would be left out of the playoffs on aggregate record. Are you following? Simple, right?
Tie breakers involving Baltimore and Seattle, including a five way tie are possible but so unlikely because the Mariners have to run the table while the Orioles lose all their games. The Tigers and/ or Royals go 4-2 and the Twins would have to sweep Baltimore and go 5-1 to join the fray. If all that happens, the order is 1. Twins, 2. Tigers, 3. Orioles, 4. Royals, 5. Mariners.
Schedules
Detroit hosts 3 games vs Tampa Bay and 3 vs the Chicago White Sox
Minnesota hosts 3 games vs Miami and 3 vs Baltimore
Kansas City plays 3 games at Washington and 3 at Atlanta
Seattle plays 3 games at Houston and 3 at Oakland
Baltimore plays 3 games at the New York Yankees and 3 at Minnesota
Likely Playoff Matchups
The New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians have all but locked up the first two seeds, and the Houston Astros are about to clinch the third seed. The Baltimore Orioles have a four game lead on the rest of the field, so they’re hot favorites to be the top wild card. In that scenario, the second wild card team would play at Baltimore and the third wild card team would play in Houston.
If the Tigers do manage to go 6-0 while Baltimore loses four games on their trip to New York and Minnesota, while the Royals lose at least once, then Detroit would win that tiebreaker and host the Orioles in the wild card round. The Tigers must pass Baltimore to host a playoff round. Not impossible, but not likely.
Looking further ahead, the winner of the series at Houston will play the 2 seed, while the winner of the 4 vs 5 round will play the 1 seed in the division series, best of five games.
Playoff Standings
First, the three division winners in the East, West and Central division will be decided. Then the next three best teams will be seeded as wild card teams.
The two division winners with the best record will be seeded 1 and 2. They will have a bye into the division series. The third division winner will have the 3 seed, and the wild card team with the best record will have the 4 seed. The 3 and 4 seeded teams will host a best of 3 wild card series.
In the Event of a Tie
If two teams are tied with the same record, the team that had the best record in head to head games (i.e. who won the season series) wins the tiebreaker. Among two teams in the same division, this will always break the deadlock, as division rivals play each other 13 times (an odd number). Among teams not in the same division, they might play each other seven times (which WILL break the tie) or six times (which might not) so we continue.
As demonstrated above, the head to head record would break all two way ties in the American League except for Seattle vs Kansas City, and possibly Minnesota vs Baltimore.
Following is an excerpt from MLB.com for the rest of the tie breaking formula
Intradivision Record
If the head-to-head record is also a tie, then the involved clubs’ records within their division will break the tie. This applies even if the tie is for a Wild Card spot between two teams that do not reside in the same division. The team with the superior intradivision record would win the tiebreaker.
Interdivision Record
In the event of a head-to-head and intradivision record tie for the involved teams, then the tie would be settled based on how they fared against teams within their league but outside of their division. So for an AL East team, it would be the record against teams from the AL Central and AL West.
Last Half of Intraleague Games
Should the interdivision record also be a tie, the next tiebreaker will be determined by the involved clubs’ last-half records against teams within their league (AL for AL teams, NL for NL teams). Note that these are the records from the last half of games mathematically, not just the games after the All-Star break (which typically comes after the mathematical midpoint).
Last Half of Intraleague Games Plus One
Should the records of the involved clubs in the second half of intraleague games also be a tie, then the outcome of the last game of the first half of intraleague games is used. Should that also be a tie, then the previous intraleague game on the schedule is used. This process is repeated until the tie is resolved.