After an electrifying run to the postseason, it’s natural to try and identify how and exactly when the Detroit Tigers flipped the switch. You could point to Trey Sweeney replacing Javier Báez as the starting shortstop in mid-August. You could more facetiously nod to former manager Jim Leyland’s “go get a $%^&#$% win” moment on his appreciation night and addition to the Tigers Wall of Fame back in early August. Maybe it was winning the Little League Classic with a stirring ninth inning rally while the national announcing team droned on like it was a New York Yankees home broadcast. In reality, the greatest single factor is probably the massive breakout from center fielder Parker Meadows.
Obviously, A.J. Hinch and head pitching coach Chris Fetter worked miracles with the pitching staff in July, August, and September. As a unit, their success was the biggest factor. But if we’re pointing to a single player, Parker Meadows was at the center of so many of the most important plays during this outrageous stretch drive. He generated an entire highlight reel of home run robberies and diving catches in center field. He absolutely raked, hitting .291 with a 135 wRC+ from the time he returned to the Tigers for good on August 3rd against the Kansas City Royals. So many crucial wins are directly attributable to him.
No single hit in the second half was bigger than his 9th inning grand slam off San Diego Padres relief ace, Robert Suarez back on September 5. Padres pitching had shut the Tigers down all game long. They held a 3-0 lead when a wild Suarez loaded the bases with two outs and Meadows stepped in to face a steady diet of triple digit fastballs. He then did this.
Do you like game winning defense? Meadows has plenty of those plays to his credit as well. Take a look at just a few of the outrageous defensive plays Meadows produced down the stretch.
There’s just no question about it. Meadows played like a superstar center fielder in all facets of the game over the past two months, giving the Tigers another big bat to pair with Riley Greene and Kerry Carpenter, while playing as good a center field as you’re likely to see.
In just half a season, Meadows has produced 2.0 fWAR/2.1 rWAR, meaning that over a full season, this is All-Star caliber play.
The road here was long, but it appears Parker Meadows has arrived.
The Tigers selected Meadows as a high schooler back in 2018 with the first pick in the second round, the same draft in which they took Casey Mize first overall, and landed Tarik Skubal in the ninth round. At the time, Meadows speed, and his power and defensive potential were obvious, but there were some issues that kept him from being a first rounder.
Meadows had a long swing, with long limbs, and a little hitch in loading his hands that made him a little slow to the ball. He wasn’t terrible in A-ball in 2019. He showed pretty solid plate discipline, and an occasional tape measure blast, but most of the time he hit like a classic leadoff hitter. He took a lot of pitches, sprayed grounders and line drives, and used his speed to augment a pretty mediocre hitting profile.
All that finally changed in 2022 when Ryan Garko took over as the Tigers director of player development. Meadows became a focal point, and the new detailed player plans involved getting Meadows a shorter, cleaner path to the ball, and helping him catch more balls out in front to hit for power.
To his credit, Meadows took to those adjustments pretty quickly. He had a much better year in 2022, and while he didn’t set the world on fire at the Triple-A level in 2023, there was enough improvement to think that the Tigers had their center fielder of the future, even if his value would primarily still come from his defense.
Meadows was called up in late August of 2023 for the first time, and he did a nice job. He posted basically average offensive marks, and that was plenty considering his value in the field and on the basepaths. All seemed well.
Then came the spring of 2024. Meadows timing was terrible all spring, and he staggered out to a brutal start in March/April, and was eventually sent back to Toledo on May 7. At that point, he was hitting .096 with a 33 wRC+ on the year. The Tigers badly needed to get him right, and the Toledo Mud Hens coaches and Meadows got to work.
Unlike Spencer Torkelson, it didn’t take too long to get his swing sorted out, and Meadows timing started to rapidly improve. The Tigers also continued to encourage him to swing early at good pitches, and worry less about posting long at-bats and drawing walks. He posted good numbers for the Mud Hens in May and June, and by early July was back in the Tigers lineup. He had six hits, including a double and a homer, in four games, and then suffered a hamstring injury on July 7. A month of rehab went by, and it wasn’t until August 3rd that Meadows was finally ready to return to duty.
Since that point he’s done nothing but hit, coming up with big knocks and huge defensive plays all over the place. The question now is just how much of this is sustainable. A two month sample is still pretty small, and it would be unwise to completely dismiss Meadows’ struggles in the first half.
There are some good signs. The major league chase rate (O-swing%) was 28.6 percent this season. For Meadows it was 25.7 percent, so he’s more selective than the average hitter. per Sports Info Solutions, the major league swinging strike rate this season was 11.1 percent. Meadows posted an 11.5 percent mark in that regard, so he’s right about league average. If you chase less than average, and swing and miss to an average degree when you do swing, you’re off to a solid start against major league pitching.
Meadows has drawn an 8.2 percent walk rate over the course of the 2024 season. That’s exactly league average. Meadows strikeout rate of 25.6 is a little on the high side compared to a league average of 22.6 percent, but his overall season BABIP of .301 isn’t that much higher than the league average of .291, and there’s no evidence of luck there. Meadows is fast, and so he should get a few more hits than average on balls in play. He does hit the ball in the air a lot, which can cut into that margin, but it also wouldn’t be surprised to Meadows hit more homers than the 18 he would be on pace for over a whole season.
Overall this year, Meadows holds a .241/.305/.432 slash line with a 109 wRC+, or nine percent better than league average. You’d love to see him balance out the hot and cold stretches going forward, but his overall season seems like a sustainable mark to expect from him going forward. Also in his favor that his splits have been very even this season. We’ve caught the hot portion at just the right time, and Meadows bat has been as big a part of the Tigers second half run as his defense.
Parker Meadows may remain a pretty streaky hitter. His swing and miss and occasional bouts of pop-up-itis could make it hard to repeat his performance over the last two months over a full season. But if he can remain anything close to league average going forward, his defense will continue to make him a very valuable player. That looks like a reasonable floor for expectations now. And if the 24-year-old Meadows is just putting it together now and can sustain something closer to his second half production? The Tigers have an All-Star center fielder for the next six seasons to come.
The Tigers pitching staff and their pitching depth in the minors, combined with Chris Fetter and his staff’s ability to develop pitchers and maximize their effectiveness bodes very well for Tigers pitching in the year’s to come. They needed a few more bats to boost the offense to a similar level. Parker Meadows emergence has given them a huge boost toward that goal, and they may only need to add one more good bat this offseason to have a very good all around unit that can take the AL Central next year.
Parker Meadows caught fire in the second half, and so did the Detroit Tigers.