Visual storytelling in baseball doesn’t get much more striking and far-reaching than the ending of the Detroit Tigers sweep of the Houston Astros on Wednesday.
As the camera shots moved from manager A.J. Hinch, triumphant with his young and finally rebuilt team in Minute Maid Park, site of his greatest moments as a manager, on to future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander, whose trade to Houston ended the last era of good Tigers baseball and keyed the Astros run to dominance, sitting despondently in the Astros dugout, possibly contemplating a very uncertain future, an entire seven-year arc for both franchises came full circle in two images and one moment.
Now it’s the Tigers with the talented young team beginning what we all hope is a lengthy new era of postseason baseball. The Astros aren’t going anywhere, but with Verlander and Alex Bregman both bound for free agency, times are changing in Houston.
For two months, Tigers fans just wondered how long they could keep their incredible stretch drive going. Now, rather than a complete longshot coming out of nowhere, the Tigers have reached the postseason and defeated a tough, talented, highly experienced club in the Wild Card Series. They aren’t surprising anyone now, but at no point have they seemed surprised at their own success either.
In fact, Hinch has emphatically refuted the idea of a miracle run or any other tag that smells of a fluke. There’s a long way to go to build a consistent division winning club that truly scares other teams year in and year out, but there’s now no question that these young Tigers belong. There’s also no reason to think they can’t keep it going.
No one is real happy to face the hottest team in baseball in October. And with a strong farm system and a very low payroll, the Detroit Tigers are now primed for a long run as consistent presence in the postseason if the Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg led front office make the right moves.
The Matchup
One compelling storyline about this matchup is the many similarities between the Tigers and Guardians. Both teams are run prevention engines, pitching well and playing a consistent brand of defense. The Tigers outfield is the superior defensive unit, and Jake Rogers is comfortably the best defensive catcher in the series. Backup Dillon Dingler was already good when he was promoted, and his defensive marks are trending upward. Still, catching duo Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges aren’t far behind Rogers in skills, and Andrés Giménez will be an absolute pest to the Tigers right-handed hitters at second base. I’ll give the Tigers a slight edge defensively, but it’s close.
The Tigers hitters are a bit deeper group than the Guardians over the last month or so. However, the Guardians have the best overall hitter in the series in the form of Jose Ramirez and several dangerous hitters beyond him. If there’s a real kicker between the two position player groups, it’s the fact that these Tigers are battle tested and hot, while the Guardians have been on ice for five days. Let’s hope that advantage pays off because if they can take Game 1 and then run Skubal out for Game 2, they may be able to put the Guardians in a deep hole before they get their timing back.
On the pitching side, the Tigers aren’t even using something like one of those starting rotations we used to hear about. It does feel less unusual in the postseason, however. Ace and presumptive AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is the best pitcher in the series, and with him starting Game 2 and a potential series deciding Game 5, the Guardians are going to be up against it in those games. Beyond Skubal the Tigers have a very deep group of good options that are being managed masterfully by Hinch and head pitching coach Chris Fetter. Other than Skubal, it may be deep into the series before a Guardians hitter sees the same Tigers pitcher twice, which certainly works in the Detroiters favor.
The Guardians have a good bullpen and they too will be able to deploy some of their starting pitchers in a relief role if needed. As a group they’re a bit more prone to surrendering hard contact, as least as evidenced by the last two months of the season for both staffs. They also issue more walks than have the Tigers staff in the second half.
Their lynchpin is the best reliever in the game. Emmanuel Clase’ will probably be leaned on heavily by Guardians manager Stephen Vogt. The odd day off between Game 1 and Game 2 also means that he can lean on his ace closer hard early in the series without burning him out. The Tigers would be well advised to take leads into the eighth or ninth innings if they’re going to get out to a good start and take this series. Of course, it’s also possible that the Guardians have to face Tyler Holton in the first inning of three games in this series if necessary. You can shorten games on both ends with a consistently dominant reliever.
Right-hander Tanner Bibee starts for Cleveland in Game 1, and it feels like a lot rides on him in that outing. If the Tigers can take it to a cold Guardians team in Game 1, they are really in trouble with Skubal on the mound next looking to bring home a 2-0 lead to Detroit. If Bibee and Clase can smother the offense, then Skubal and a somewhat inexperienced Tigers team will face their first real check in the postseason.
All in all, it’s a pretty evenly balanced matchup. And so the skills of Hinch vs. first year manager Stephen Vogt are likely to be put to the test. The Tigers no doubt like their odds.
Of course it’s the postseason, and so chaos beyond the Tigers pitching plan will break out. Unexpected heroes and struggles by top players become heightened under the overpowered heat lamp of playoff baseball. We’re ready to take the ride.
Here is the ALDS schedule. All games will be broadcast on TBS. They’ll play two at Progressive Field and then two in Comerica Park as needed, with a potential deciding Game 5 going down on Saturday, October 12 in Cleveland
Eat’em up Tigers, eat’em up!
Game 1 – Saturday, October 5 at 1:08 p.m. ET
Game 2 – Monday, October 7 at 4:08 p.m. ET
Game 3 – Wednesday, October 9 at 3:08 p.m. ET (4:08 p.m. ET if the LAD/SD matchup ends in a sweep)
Game 4 – Thursday, October 10 at 6:08 p.m. ET
Game 5 – Saturday, October 12, at 4:38 p.m. ET