In a fairly shocking turn of event, the Chiba Lotte Marines of Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) announced late on Friday night that they would post star pitcher Roki Sasaki to MLB teams this offseason. The recently turned 23-year-old right-hander immediately becomes one of the top prizes of the offseason and the game’s top prospect.
Not only is he arguably as talented on the pitching side as top free agent Juan Soto is as a hitter, but Sasaki won’t cost $600M to acquire. In fact, he’ll likely cost little no more than $7,555,500, which is easily affordable for the Detroit Tigers. The trick is convincing him to here, of course, and there we meet insurmountable obstacles.
The cost is no surprise if you know the international free agent bonus pool system. Players in the NPB have to accrue nine years of playing time as a pro before they can become international free agents. Otherwise, they’re subject to the same rules as teenaged players from Latin America and elsewhere, meaning that unless they are 25 years old and have played in a recognized league for six seasons, they are subject to the international bonus pool system enacted for the 2017-2021 Collective Bargaining Agreement. Sasaki will be considered an international amateur free agent by these rules. That means that teams can only pay a bonus out of their bonus pool, and for the 2025 international signing year, the eight teams with the largest bonus pool have a total of $7,555,500 to spend. The Tigers are one of them.
With no small amount of irony, we can safely say that money is no object where Sasaki is concerned. The Dodgers have just $5,146,200 to offer Roki Sasaki right now, assuming he waits and is posted in January when the next international signing year begins, but they’ll still easily be the favorites to land him. A system that in theory should give every team an equal shot is still overwhelmed by the larger systems in the game in which money rules all. The Dodgers have had the resources for years to assemble a spectacular roster, including Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto, making them the most attractive landing place for Sasaki. And while they can’t officially discuss terms, there will be no question about the massive extension that Sasaki will get after the 2025 season.
Now, Sasaki hasn’t made his preferences clear. The Tigers should absolutely have a full presentation package ready when Sasaki is posted and talks featuring Scott Harris, Jeff Greenberg, Chris Fetter, Tigers’ advance scouting manager Kan Ikeda, and hopefully Kenta Maeda and his translator Daichi Sekizaki. Anyone with something to offer in selling the Tigers to Sasaki should be employed in the effort.
Harris mentioned as an aside when discussing the initial signing of Maeda that they hoped the signing would both raise the organization’s profile in Japan a bit, and give them more experience in helping foreign born players make the transition straight to MLB. Still, while we can hope this pays some dividends in the future, that’s highly unlikely to be enough to convince Sasaki to sign with the Tigers.
Certainly the club is in a position to handle a massive extension of the sort he’s going to ultimately receive. Certainly they should make the best push possible in trying to convince him to sign in Detroit, but ultimately it’s more for the exercise of doing so than with any real hope that the club can land the budding superstar.
Perhaps Sasaki has something in mind other than the Dodgers. Maybe he’s the type of person who wants to go his own way and put his stamp on a different team. New York, Seattle, maybe Boston, start to seem like realistic options if he isn’t dead set on joining Ohtani. The Tigers just don’t even seem like one of the secondary possibilities.
If you aren’t that familiar with Sasaki, here’s a good breakdown from Lance Brozdowski. Suffice it to say this is like landing Paul Skenes with more competitive professional experience. The only fly in the ointment is the fact that Sasaki’s velo was down some during the 2024 season. Unless his medicals show a problem, that isn’t going to change anyone’s minds, and we’ll presume that the Marines wouldn’t be posting him if there were any underlying medical issues. It’s enough of a surprise that they’re basically giving him away for nothing, at least in terms of the scale of baseball contracts at this level, already.
Here is a quick highlight clip from one of his World Baseball Classic starts for the eventual champions, Team Japan.
So is there any angle here at all for the Tigers?
If so, it’s probably in terms of trading international bonus pool money to the Dodgers or some other Sasaki pursuer. Should they be willing to part with some of that $7,555,500, the Tigers could include IFA bonus pool money in a trade for a prospect or even as part of the compensation for a trade of a major league player.
The Tigers presumably have $3-3.5M already earmarked to top international prospect Cris Rodriguez from their 2025 bonus pool. He’ll likely be signed in January when the new signing period opens. Beyond that, we don’t really know who else the Tigers have tentative agreements with. If there are no other highly ranked amateurs committed to sign with them, using some of that largest of bonus pools to help boost the present roster may be an option.
In terms of the Dodgers specifically, the Tigers have already had good success in trading with them under Scott Harris. The Jack Flaherty trade for catcher Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney already looks like a winner. They also picked up infield prospect Eddys Leonard for cash at the 2023 deadline to help the Dodgers clear a 40-man roster spot. So there is a growing familiarity and wide open lines of communication between the two clubs.
We’ll see if the Tigers end up involved in the Sasaki sweepstakes. Sadly, their part will be a tertiary role at best. Roki Sasaki wearing the Olde English D would make us very happy, but instead it looks like the rich will continue to get richer.