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Watch: Detroit Tigers introduce AJ Hinch as manager
Detroit Tigers owner Christopher Ilitch and GM Al Avila introduce new manager AJ Hinch, Oct. 30, 2020.
With the hiring of AJ Hinch as manager last week, the Detroit Tigers suggested their rebuild — which began in earnest in 2017 — is moving into a new phase, with the team hoping to contend by 2022.
The Tigers went 23-35 this season — the equivalent of a 64-98 finish in a 162-game season but still a 17-win improvement over their 47-114 record in 2019. Another 17-win improvement in 2021 would give the franchise its first .500 record since 2016 and seemingly set up a playoff push in Hinch’s second season as manager.
Hinch has seen this transition before; he took over the Houston Astros after a 2014 season in which their 70-92 record was seen as a breakthrough following three consecutive 100-loss seasons. In his first season, the Astros made a surprising surge and finished 86-76 with an AL wild-card berth and a narrow five-game ALDS loss to the eventual champion Kansas City Royals.
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But how much of that 16-win improvement from ’14 to ’15 was Hinch responsible for? It’s tough to say, but we took a look at the top five homegrown players by WAR (Wins Above Replacement, according to baseball-reference.com) from that 2015 squad. (The No. 5 player by WAR that season, Colby Rasmus, was a free-agent signing during the 2014-15 offseason.) All but one of those players experienced breakout seasons under Hinch. Here’s the rundown, as well as a Tigers player in each who could see a similar change in performance:
LHP Dallas Keuchel
2014 WAR: 4.5; 2015 WAR: 6.5; Difference: 2.0
The buzz: Keuchel entered 2015 already coming off a moderate breakthrough; his ERA dropped from 5.15 in 2013 to 2.93 in 2014 despite increasing his workload from 153⅔ innings to 200 innings, including five complete games. But his 2015 was next-level as he led the AL with 232 innings pitched and dropped his ERA to 2.48, with his effectiveness metric (Fielding Independent Pitching, or “FIP”) dropping from 3.21 (good) to 2.91 (great). The big reason? Keuchel became a strikeout machine, going from 0.73 per inning (146 total) in 2014 to 0.93 (216) in 2015 while keeping his walk rate basically steady (from 0.24 per inning in 2014 to 0.22 in 2015).
Keuchel won the AL Cy Young that season in a minor upset over David Price — Keuchel had an AL-high 20 wins behind the Astros’ jump from 3.88 to 4.50 runs a game, while Price was superior in nearly every other stat despite fewer innings pitched — but he struggled to find that form in his next three seasons pitching for Hinch. His ERAs varied from 2.90 to 4.55 in 2016-19, but his FIP actually decreased, going from 3.87 to 3.79 to 3.69.
The Tiger equivalent: Spencer Turnbull appeared to have ace-like stuff at times and saw his FIP drop from 3.99 in 2019 to 3.49 in 2020. A similar improvement in 2021 (and any support from the Tigers offense) could lead to a Keuchel-like breakout season.
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SS Carlos Correa
2014 WAR: N/A; 2015 WAR: 4.8; Difference: N/A
The buzz: Correa was just 20 when he made his debut on June 8, 2015. The No. 1 overall pick in 2012 had shot through the Astros’ system, with his only stops above Single-A coming early in 2015: 29 games in Double-A, in which he had a slash line of .385/.459/.726, and 24 games in Triple-A, in which he “slumped” to .276/.345/.449. What did Hinch do with the consensus top-5 prospect when he finally made the majors? Let him play; all 99 of the shortstop’s appearances were starts, and he earned the playing time, too, with a single in his debut, at least one hit in 16 of his first 20 games and three weeks before his first back-to-back hitless games.
During that three-week span to start his career, Hinch slotted Correa into the Astros’ No. 6 spot in the order for three of his first four games, then moved him up to No. 2 for 16 games, in which Correa posted a .900 OPS. Correa moved down to the No. 3 spot for the rest of the season; his OPS dropped to .835, but Correa was still a worthy Rookie of the Year winner despite playing only 99 games, edging out Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (who also appeared in 99 games) on the strength of 17 first-place votes to Lindor’s 13.
The Tiger equivalent: Spencer Torkelson appears to already be a polished hitting prospect; whenever he makes the majors, Hinch will likely take a similar approach of slotting him high in the order and letting him rake.
OF George Springer
2014 WAR: 2.0; 2015 WAR: 4.2; Difference: +2.2
The buzz: As a rookie in 2014, Springer showed impressive power, with 20 homers in 295 at-bats before a quad strain ended his season. His 39 walks suggested a refined batting eye, but his 114 strikeouts and just eight doubles suggested he was selling out for homers more often than not.
Under Hinch, Springer’s issues got worse, initially. Over the first 45 games of the 2015 season, Springer had a slash line of .207/.335/.407, with just six homers, hitting primarily in the second or third spot in the order. Finally, on May 24, Hinch slotted Springer into the leadoff spot. Something clicked, and over Springer’s next 48 games, all atop the order, he hit .296/.376/.452. When Springer returned to the No. 2 spot in the order on Sept. 17, he posted a slash line of .358/.413/.582 in his final 17 games. Springer returned to the leadoff spot for most of the rest of his time under Hinch, with a slash line there of .277/.365/.501 from 2016 to ’19.
The Tiger equivalent: Victor Reyes grabbed most of the Tigers’ leadoff at-bats in 2020; while his .277/.313/.372 slash line in that spot wasn’t very Springerian, his .364/.382/.606 line as the first batter of the game (albeit in just 33 at-bats) suggests room to grow.
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2B Jose Altuve
2014 WAR: 5.5; 2015 WAR: 4.0; Difference: -1.5.
The buzz: Altuve was the face of the franchise in 2014 — the team’s lone All-Star, the 5-foot-6 24-year-old led the AL in hits (225), steals (56) and batting average (.341) while walking 38 times and striking out just 56 times in 660 at-bats as he won the AL Silver Slugger award at second base.
His first April with Hinch as manager went even better, as Altuve posted a .367/.400/.500 slash line with nine steals, six walks and eight strikeouts in 22 games. He struggled in May, however, with just six extra-base hits and 12 strikeouts in 108 at-bats and a .231 batting average. That was his nadir, however, as his OPS climbed every succeeding month, going from .725 in June all the way to .894 in September and October.
That 2015 season was arguably Altuve’s worst while playing for Hinch, as he put up WAR totals of 7.9, 7.6, 4.8 and 3.8 (in only 124 games) from 2016 to ’19. Of course, the total from 2017, when Altuve won the AL MVP award, has since been called into question with the Astros’ sign-stealing scheme.
The Tiger equivalent: Jeimer Candelario finally had a breakout year, with a .297/.369/.503 slash line; had there been an All-Star game, he likely would have been the Tigers’ representative. Will he build upon that in 2021, or regress to his 2019 form, which had him in danger of losing his roster spot?
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UTIL Marwin Gonzalez
2014 WAR: 1.3; 2015 WAR: 2.7; Difference: +1.4.
The buzz: Gonzalez was a solid, if not outstanding, backup infielder in 2014, with a .277/.327/.400 slash line in 103 games. The vast majority of those games (77), however, came at shortstop, with 11 appearances at second and 10 at third. Under Hinch in 2015, however, Gonzalez became a super-sub, with at least 15 appearances at five positions: first base (43), shortstop (32), third base (21), second base (15) and left field (15).
Gonzalez’s extended time at first was notable, considering he had one game of experience there in the majors prior to 2015. But Hinch and the Astros were desperate, as prospect Jon Singleton had failed early in the season, and “all-or-nothing” slugger Chris Carter, who’d hit 37 homers with a .227 average in 2014, was mostly “or-nothing” in 2015, hitting .199. The switch-hitting Gonzalez excelled in as the righty half of a platoon at first for most of August and September, and posted a .299/.357/.442 line at the position for the full year. (His platoon partner, the late Luis Valbuena, was equally effective against right-handers, with a .263/.360/.461 line at first.)
Gonzalez’s versatility would prove to be key over the next few seasons as he averaged 2.4 WAR per season from 2016 to ’18 — he signed with the Twins as a free agent following the 2018 season — despite never topping 500 at-bats.
The Tiger equivalent: Niko Goodrum appears to have lost his job at short to Willi Castro, at least for the start of next season. Goodrum was the Tigers’ super-sub in 2018-19; could he fill that role in 2021 — and considering his career .323/.383/.480 line against lefties, could he thrive as the left-handed portion of a platoon at first or second base?
Contact Ryan Ford at rford@freepress.com. Follow him on Twitter @theford. Read more on the Detroit Tigers and sign up for our Tigers newsletter.